Printer-friendly

June 9, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Monday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Royals (24-39) at Yankees (32-31), 1:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Luke Hochevar (52 2/3 IP, 5.81 RA, 1.60 WHIP, 35 K) vs. Mike Mussina (67 1/3, 5.21, 1.28, 39)
Pythagorean Record: Kansas City, 24-39 (234 RS, 300 RA); New York, 31-32 (291 RS, 297 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Kansas City, #27; New York, #15
Prospectus: After back-to-back come-from-behind victories, the Yankees will be looking to take three out of four from the Royals this afternoon in the Bronx. Both Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon played key offensive roles in those victories, but the Yankees offense has been carried the past two months by that pair, who have both bounced back from down seasons to post excellent offensive numbers in 2008. Damon leads the vaunted Yankees attack in VORP, with 25.1. Last year the 33-year-old outfielder fought through the most injury-plagued season of his career, dealing with calf, hamstring, back, and abdominal issues, which were not quite enough to send him to the DL for the first time, but which did force him to miss 21 games, and also contributed to his worst batting average (.270) and slugging percentage (.396) since 2001. This year, however, Damon is fully healthy and posting career highs in AVG, OBP, and SLG. Damon had a huge day in Saturday's win over Kansas City, tying the American League record for hits in a nine-inning game and becoming just the second Yankee since 1956 to get six hits in a game, and the first to go a perfect 6-for-6.

Coming off a 2007 season in which he was limited to 83 games and a .282 EqA by a foot injury, Giambi got off to a slow start at the plate this year, prompting speculation that the 37-year-old slugger was finished. But May offered up a healthy dose of vindication for aging formerly-elite DHs, and since the sixth of that month Giambi has put up a 1210 OPS and hit nine home runs in 103 PA. That performance has bumped Giambi's EqA all the way up to .316 for the season, the best mark on the team. Giambi has even been playing decent defense at first base, remarkably: at 10.01, his Range Factor is above the league average of 9.51, his .995 fielding percentage is right at the league average, and his FRAA Rate is also at 100, exactly average.

Matchup: Indians (28-35) at Tigers (26-36), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Cliff Lee (77 IP, 2.69 RA, 1.04 WHIP, 65 K) vs. Dontrelle Willis (10, 4 H, 5 R, 3/16 K/BB)
Pythagorean Record: Cleveland, 32-31 (275 RS, 270 RA); Detroit, 29-33 (291 RS, 312 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Cleveland, #18; Detroit, #24
Prospectus: It seems that Willis this season is suffering through the same sort of lost campaign that Lee experienced last year, when the Cleveland lefty never could get untracked after an injury, and finished with a 6.75 RA. Lee had a historically great run through his first seven outings, turning in quality starts in all seven with five runs allowed in 53 2/3 innings, but he has fallen back from that truly elite level lately. Lee has only one quality start in his last four outings, a stretch in which he has allowed 18 runs in 23 1/3 innings, but has still picked up wins in his last three thanks to an average of 5.1 runs of support in his starts.

While Cleveland has backed up the fine efforts of Lee on the mound, the Indians rank last in the American League with a .241 team batting average. However, their on-base percentage is nearly a full 80 points higher, at .320, because Cleveland's hitters have walked 214 times, and they have also been hit by 40 pitches, the highest total in the majors. That puts the Indians on pace to finish with 103 hit batsmen for the full season, which would set a new AL record, and the modern major league record. The AL mark is currently held by the 1996 Blue Jays, with 92, while Craig Biggio and the 1997 Astros had the highest total in the last 50 years, with 100. Grady Sizemore has done nearly everything for the Indians this year, including taking a few for the team, as he has been hit five times. David Dellucci has also been nailed with five pitches, while Ryan Garko leads the club with six. Since the start of last season, his first full year in the majors, Garko has been plunked 26 times, more than anyone else in the AL, while Sizemore is fourth in the circuit. The Indians would surely appreciate a few more hits coming from Garko's bat, however, as the first baseman's slugging percentage has fallen nearly 100 points from last year, and he has just 14 extra-base hits after totaling 51 in 2007.