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June 7, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Saturday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Royals (24-37) at Yankees (30-31), 1:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Brian Bannister (74 1/3 IP, 4.72 RA, 1.27 WHIP, 45 K) vs. Andy Pettitte (72 2/3, 4.71, 1.43, 52)
Pythagorean Record: Kansas City, 24-37 (220 RS, 282 RA); New York, 29-32 (273 RS, 283 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Kansas City, #27; New York, #15
Prospectus: Pettitte is the only left-handed pitcher currently on the Yankees' roster, as the Bombers are not employing any southpaws in the bullpen. The one lefty New York tried in the pen this season, Billy Traber, gave up four runs in eight innings before being sent down. New York right now is the only team in baseball that does not have at least one left-hander amongst its relievers, which has led to speculation that Brian Cashman is asking after the Rockies' Brian Fuentes and the Pirates' Damaso Marte. Is not having a lefty reliever a severe handicap? In the abstract, the answer is no. The example used most often of an almost entirely right-handed bullpen that dominated is that of the mid-aughts Angels. In 2003, for example, Anaheim got just eight percent of its bullpen innings from southpaws, 42 1/3 of 503 1/3, and posted the fourth-highest ARP of the last 50 years. And the Yankees do have one of the greatest lefty killers of all time at the back of their bullpen: because of his cutter, Mariano Rivera has performed better against southpaws over his career (520 opponent OPS) than against right-handers (601), prompting switch-hitters to sometimes bat right-handed against him. Thirty-one-year-old rookie Dan Giese pitched very well against left-handers in the minors; this season at Triple-A Scranton he held them to a .149 average (compared with .249 for righties) with a 28/6 K/BB ratio, and last year with Triple-A Fresno lefties hit .224 off him with a 26/3 K/BB ratio. In addition, Edwar Ramirez's nasty change-up helps him shut down lefties--he has posted a 56/14 K/BB against them in his minor league career with New York from 2006 to '08, without allowing an average against higher than .170. On the season, New York's staff has held lefties to a 729 OPS, versus the major league average of 750, while letting righties put up a 740 mark.

As was pointed out by Royals' beat writer Joe Posnanski recently, and remarked upon by BP's Rany Jazayerli, Bannister has pitched much better during the day this season than at night. In fact, he is now 5-1 in six day starts this year with a 2.16 ERA, as compared to 0-5 in six night starts with a 7.71 ERA. His opponent OPS during the day is 505 in 159 plate appearances, and at night is 883 in 153.

Matchup: Orioles (30-30) at Blue Jays (32-31), 1:07 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Jeremy Guthrie (83 IP, 4.01 RA, 1.23 WHIP, 53 K) vs. A.J. Burnett (77, 4.68, 1.40, 73) Pythagorean Record: Baltimore, 28-32 (252 RS, 268 RA); Toronto, 35-28 (261 RS, 233 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Baltimore, #21; Toronto, #10
Prospectus: The Orioles beat Toronto 6-5 last night in the opener of a three-game set to pull even at .500, continuing the AL East's pummeling of itself this season. As expected, the East has been baseball's toughest division: the five teams are separated by 6.5 games, the smallest margin in baseball, and have gone 95-72 against teams outside their division, a .569 winning percentage. In contrast, the AL Central has gone 78-99 in non-fraternal battles, and the AL West 81-80. The AL East has been the best division in baseball against external rivals, just a fraction better than the NL Central (108-83, .565).

The Orioles have been able to hang around .500 far longer than expected thanks to their adherence to legendary manager Earl Weaver's old maxim: defense, pitching, and the three-run homer. Well, perhaps not the three-run homer specifically--the O's have just five of those, due to the fact that they rank 12^th in the AL in OBP--but Baltimore has surprisingly shown a great deal of sock this season, ranking fourth in the AL with 65 homers after finishing 11^th each of the past two seasons. On the pitching front, the bullpen has been particularly strong, ranking seventh in the majors in ARP, and the real surprise has been the arms that are contributing. A glance at the AL leaders in ARP reveals James Johnson at the top, and Matt Albers third behind his teammate and Rivera. Johnson was a minor league starting pitcher in the Orioles chain from 2001-07, and not an especially promising one at that, putting up ERA's north of 4.00 and WHIP's north of 1.40 in both 2006 and '07. He had never made more than three relief appearances in a season prior to this year, but the decision by Baltimore to put him in the major league bullpen has led to a 1.35 RA in 33 1/3 innings. Johnson has yet to allow a homer, but his BABIP is also an unsustainable .208 and his K/BB an underwhelming 18/14. Albers has also limited the home run ball, with one allowed in 41 2/3 inning, but like Johnson his 23/16 K/BB ratio does not portend continued dominance. The Blue Jays have gotten good work from their bullpen as well--that is up until recently, for the Jays' pen has blown leads in three of the past five games, including twice by closer B.J. Ryan in the eighth, and yesterday in the eighth by former closer Armando Benitez, who botched a save chance against his original team.