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June 5, 2008

Prospectus Today

AL All-Stars

by Joe Sheehan

Last week I went to the Memorial Day Marlins/Mets game, during which I undertook one of my favorite tasks: filling out an All-Star ballot during the game. As I’ve written in this space many times, I think the All-Star Game is for the very best players in the league, and I think the way to vote for the All-Stars isn’t by perusing the EqA lists from the comfort of your couch, but between innings while kibitzing with your friends, hot-dog breath filling the air. (This may come as a surprise to some, but I do not have a laptop open when watching a game from the stands.)

There are other ways to fill out an All-Star ballot, of course. You want to fill out a homer ballot? Go for it. Vote for your personal favorite players? Hey, more power to you. Reasonable minds can disagree about who the best players are at some, even many positions, which is where the best arguments come into play. My only objection is to the common standard of “guys with the best stats when I vote.” There’s simply not enough information to be gleaned from six, eight, 10 weeks of baseball to have that be the sole qualification for All-Star status. Current performance can come into play to separate comparable candidates, but if considering a player an All-Star would have been ridiculous in March, it’s still ridiculous in June, no matter how high their VORP is.

With that framework in mind, here’s my American League All-Star ballot, with rationales. It’s earlier than most All-Star columns, but again, because I don’t weight the current season’s performance very highly, my All-Stars don’t change from month to month.

First Base: Justin Morneau, Twins. It was a tough call here between Morneau and Kevin Youkilis. Remember when the AL had six or seven All-Star-caliber first basemen? Morneau has the slightly longer track record, which is basically the difference between the two. I also think that, gun at my head, I’d take Morneau to be the better player going forward, as his power is the best tool between the two players. Casey Kotchman picked up brief consideration, but will be a stronger candidate in 2009. I wouldn’t argue too strenuously against him this year, I guess.

Second Base: Placido Polanco, Tigers. Polanco has quietly become one heck of a player in the American League, although his 2008 performance has been lacking. Ian Kinsler has outplayed him this year and was only about 10 runs behind him last year, so you could argue strongly for the younger player. Brian Roberts also deserves mention. Like first base, it’s a relatively deep top level, just one that lacks a top-tier star, and which leaves any number of guys as viable candidates. I just don’t know how this isn’t Howie Kendrick yet. Oh, wait, I do: Howie Kendrick is made of balsa wood.