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May 28, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Wednesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: White Sox (28-23) at Indians (24-28), 12:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Gavin Floyd (58 1/3 IP, 3.39 RA, 1.08 WHIP, 25 K) vs. Jake Westbrook (29 2/3, 3.03, 1.11, 16)
Pythagorean Record: Chicago, 29-22 (229 RS, 195 RA); Cleveland, 28-24 (213 RS, 196 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Chicago, #5; Cleveland, #17
Prospectus: Westbrook comes off the DL after being sidelined since April 19 with a strained ribcage muscle. The veteran right-hander was drinking from the same Kool-Aid as Cliff Lee at the start of the season (albeit a watered-down version), as he tossed four consecutive quality starts before getting hurt, so his return should help make up for the team's loss of Fausto Carmona, who will be out for most of the next month after straining a hip muscle. Cleveland still leads the league in starting pitcher performance by a healthy margin, with a collective team SNLVAR of 9.5 (Oakland is second at 7.4). The Indians' starters are no longer on pace for a historically-great performance, but if they keep pitching at their current rate, they will finish with an SNLVAR of 29.6. That would be the fifth highest in the American League in the past 50 years, behind the rotations of the 1961 Orioles, the 1964 and '63 White Sox, and the 1980 A's.

Opposing Westbrook is Floyd, who already has two near no-hitters this season. Floyd is a fly-ball pitcher, with a G/F ratio this season of 0.88, and therefore stands in contrast to Westbrook, a premier sinkerballer who has a career G/F of 2.66. What's curious about Floyd's success in preventing hits this season is that Chicago's outfield defense has been suspect; Floyd has a .176 BABIP, the lowest amongst all ERA qualifiers, despite the fact that the White Sox have gotten a collective Range Factor that is below average from all three outfield positions. Especially inexplicable is the defensive play of reserve center fielder Brian Anderson thus far: known as a fantastic glove man, who rated as 16 runs above average in 134 games at the position in 2006 by FRAA, Anderson this season has made just 22 putouts in 140 innings in center. That gives him a range factor of 1.41, which ranks dead last amongst all players who have amassed at least 50 innings in center this season. That abnormally low figure could be a fluke caused by a lack of balls hit in his direction while in the game, as Anderson's Zone Rating is .880, which is at least respectable.

Matchup: Rangers (27-27) at Rays (31-21), 12:40 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Kason Gabbard (37 1/3 IP, 4.34 RA, 1.71 WHIP, 18 K) vs. Matt Garza (44 1/3, 4.26, 1.47, 19)
Pythagorean Record: Texas, 26-28 (286 RS, 298 RA); Tampa Bay, 29-23 (243 RS, 216 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Texas, #16; Tampa Bay, #7
Prospectus: After a long, tough journey spanning nine years, the top overall pick by in the 1999 amateur draft finally arrived in Tampa Bay on Monday night, playing in front of the Tropicana Field fans for the first time. Of course, Hamilton made his return as a member of the Texas Rangers, and not the hometown Rays, but the fans at the Trop gave him a standing ovation anyway when he first dug into the batter's box. Hamilton went 0-4 in the opener, but he put on a spectacular show last night, giving Rays fans a tantalizing taste of what might have been. Hamilton unloaded for a first-inning RBI double and an eighth-inning grand slam, and has now driven in 58 runs, 12 more than that of the next closest batter, Lance Berkman. His fast start is reminiscent of the hot beginning of another Rangers slugging outfielder, Juan Gonzalez, who hit the 58 RBI mark in his 46^th game back in 1998 (Hamilton has played 53 games). Juan Gone had 101 RBI in 87 games by the All-Star break that season, but drove in "just" 56 runs in 67 second-half games, that despite the fact that his batting average rose from .293 to .353 and his slugging from .590 to .686. Gonzalez's counter-intuitive split captures what the RBI is all about, in that you need opportunities. Hamilton has gotten quite a few, as he has batted with 168 runners on base, tied for the fifth highest total in baseball, but he's also performed like almost no one has in history. Hamilton's OBI% is up to 26.8, which would be the second highest mark in the past 50 years amongst batting title qualifiers.

Even with last night's loss, the Rays are in first place in the East with the AL's best record, and are tied for the best mark in the majors with the Cubs. The Rangers are exceeding expectations as well, albeit to a much more modest extent, as they have maintained a .500 record despite the worst pitching staff in the AL. Texas was also buried by this point last season, with a 19-35 record and the same 13.5-game deficit in the AL West that the Rays sported in the AL East at that juncture.