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May 27, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Tuesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Dodgers (26-24) at Cubs (30-21), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Hiroki Kuroda (62 IP, 4.21 RA, 1.27 WHIP, 34 K) vs. Sean Gallagher (19, 5.68, 1.58, 14)
Pythagorean Record: Los Angeles, 27-23 (231 RS, 215 RA); Chicago, 30-21 (291 RS, 210 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Los Angeles, #9; Chicago, #1
Prospectus: Tonight's game at Wrigley will feature a battle initiated on the other side of the Pacific. Before signing stateside, Cubs right fielder Kosuke Fukudome played for the Chunichi Dragons in the Nippon Professional Baseball League, and Kuroda pitched for the Hiroshima Carp. Now, they will face each other for the first time in the major leagues. Fukudome will also be facing a countryman in America for the first time. So far this season, Japanese major league batters are just 1-for-13 with five walks against Japanese pitchers. Fukudome would love to get a hit against anyone right now, Japanese or no, as he has slumped to .256/.354/.329 in 97 PA since the start of May after hitting .327/.436/.480 in 117 April plate appearances.

Kuroda is not the only Asian pitcher that Fukudome might see tonight. Besides Japanese closer Takashi Saito, the Los Angeles bullpen features Taiwanese-born Hong-Chih Kuo, as well as Chan Ho Park, the first Korean to ever pitch in the majors. Kuo has been a revelation for the Dodgers since moving to relief, having given up two runs in 20 1/3 innings with a 28/3 K/BB ratio after faring poorly in his three starts. Park has done good work in his return to the organization that signed him way back in 1994, and for which he pitched the first eight seasons of his career. He left LA for Texas on a five-year, $70 million contract after the 2001 season as the owner of a 4.15 career RA in nearly 1200 innings, but from his first season in Texas through last year he put up a 5.95 RA in 567 innings. Park threw just four innings in the majors all of last season, giving up seven runs while with the Mets, and it appeared that his career might be over, but he has been revitalized by his return to the Dodgers, giving up just eight runs in 30 innings, mostly out of the bullpen. For his career, Park now sports a 3.29 RA at Dodger Stadium in 651 2/3 innings; everywhere else, he's at 5.51.

Matchup: Braves (28-23) at Brewers (24-27), 7:05 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Tim Hudson (35 1/3 IP, 4.58 RA, 1.42 WHIP, 21 K) vs. Dave Bush (58 2/3, 4.76, 1.33, 54)
Pythagorean Record: Atlanta, 31-20 (246 RS, 196 RA); Milwaukee, 23-28 (224 RS, 249 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Atlanta, #3; Milwaukee, #22
Prospectus: The Brewers have been treading water all year, and have scored just 4.4 runs per game. That puts them on pace to finish the season with 712 runs, well below their PECOTA preseason projection of 809. Part of that underperformance is due to the play of second baseman Rickie Weeks, who is one of seven Brewers below-average bats this season (a -.098 MLVr). Weeks is hitting .206, the second lowest average in the National League amongst players qualified for the batting crown. He however leads the Brewers with 29 walks, and has been hit by nine pitches, more than any other major leaguer--consequently, Weeks has a .335 OBP, and has scored 39 runs, 13 more than anyone else on the team. That puts him on pace to score over 120 runs. No player in the history of the game has ever scored so many with so low a batting average. In fact, just two players have scored 120 or more with an average below .250--Donie Bush for the 1911 Tigers, and Frankie Crosetti for the 1937 Yankees. Here are the 10 lowest batting average seasons in which the player also scored 100 runs:

Hitter          Team   Year   AVG   R
Donie Bush       DET   1912  .231  107
Max Bishop       PHA   1929  .232  102
Donie Bush       DET   1911  .232  126
Frankie Crosetti NYA   1939  .233  109
Frankie Crosetti NYA   1937  .234  127
Rickey Henderson OAK   1998  .236  101
Ike Davis        CHA   1925  .240  110
Rickey Henderson SDN   1996  .241  110
Jack Graney      CLE   1916  .241  106
Jay Buhner       SEA   1997  .243  104

Coming out of college as the second overall pick in the 2003 draft, no one would have guessed Weeks might one day top that list. Starring at Southern University, he was a batting average machine, leading the nation in hitting in both 2002 and '03 with mind-boggling averages of .495 and .479. His career collegiate batting average of .473 is the highest in Division I history. Weeks's average dipped to .289 during his minor league tenure, and he now holds a .243 career mark in the majors. His secondary skills are so strong, however, that Weeks can hit .235--as he did last year--and still be a positive contributor. The problem for Weeks this season is that he's hitting the ball on the ground rather than on a line--he has a 51.3 fly-ball percentage, up from 41.6 last year, and is hitting liners on just 11.7 percent of his batted balls, down from 17.1 in 2007.