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May 17, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Saturday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Rays (25-17) at Cardinals (24-20), 1:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Matt Garza (32 2/3 IP, 3.86 RA, 1.38 WHIP, 14 K) vs. Adam Wainwright (58, 3.41, 1.02, 39)
Pythagorean Record: Tampa Bay, 24-18 (189 RS, 162 RA); St. Louis, 23-21 (195 RS, 185 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Tampa Bay, #5; St. Louis, #7
Prospectus: Every time the Rays climb a game further above .500, they plow into uncharted territory--the latest first for Tampa Bay, after yesterday's 3-1 victory over St. Louis, is eight games above the break-even point. By holding the Cardinals to one run, the Rays also set a franchise record by allowing two runs or less in five consecutive games, topping the previous best of four in a row the team set in September of 2000--this after the Rays threw back-to-back shutouts last week for just the fourth time in team history. Tampa Bay has now given up a total of fifteen runs in its past nine games, winning eight of those to open up a 1.5 game lead in the AL East over Boston. Everything is clicking for the team, as fifth starter Andy Sonnanstine even managed to break Albert Pujols' consecutive times-on-base streak, which had reached 42 games to begin the year, by handing him an 0-for-4 collar last night. St. Louis lost its fifth in the past six to fall three behind the Cubs in the NL Central.

Tampa Bay is now fourth in the major leagues with a team RA mark of 3.86, despite ranking just 22^nd overall in strikeouts and 15^th in K/BB ratio. That strongly suggests defense being the critical component, and indeed, Tampa Bay has the second best defensive efficiency in the majors behind Baltimore, which has helped Rays pitching allow the fewest hits in the American League. Last season Tampa Bay had the worst defensive efficiency in recorded history and the most hits allowed in the majors. Fueling that change is excellent outfield defense, as well as the shift at shortstop--in 2007, the collective team Range Factor at the position was 4.00, while this year Jason Bartlett's play has led to a 4.68 figure, well above the 4.55 league average. Today's beneficiary of that improved glovework will be Garza, who after getting touched for 11 runs in 13 innings through his first three outings has fired three straight quality starts, the latest seven innings of shutout ball against the Yankees on Monday.

Matchup: Indians (22-20) at Reds (19-23), 3:55 p.m. ET, FOX
Probable Starters: Fausto Carmona (48 2/3 IP, 2.77 RA, 1.64 WHIP, 18 K) vs. Aaron Harang (62 1/3, 3.61, 1.12, 51) Pythagorean Record: Cleveland, 25-17 (177 RS, 147 RA); Cincinnati, 19-23 (186 RS, 210 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Cleveland, #10; Cincinnati, #19
Prospectus: Despite last night's 4-3 loss in the opener of the battle for Ohio, the Indians hold a 29-23 edge in this intrastate rivalry since the two began play in 1997. Carmona is coming off of his best start of the season, a complete-game shutout of the Blue Jays. He still walked four, however, and has now passed almost twice as many as he has struck out (35/18) on the season, a complete reversal of his first two seasons in the majors. Carmona has survived by stranding runners on base all season thanks to his superb sinker, which despite being difficult to throw for strikes has been nearly impossible for batters to lift off the ground. Carmona has induced 15 double-play groundouts this season, four more than the next pitcher on the list, Mark Buehrle, has had turned behind him. If Carmona makes 32 starts, as he did last year, his current pace would lead to 60 double-play grounders. That would break the all-time record of 47, also set by an Indians pitcher, Gaylord Perry, in 1973. Perry tied a career high with 41 starts that season and threw a career-high 344 innings while ranking eighth in the majors with a ground-ball percentage of 61; this season, Carmona leads the majors with a ground-ball percentage of 69.

With a first-inning Brandon Phillips homer, Cincinnati broke the streak of 50 1/3 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run that Cleveland's starters carried into last night's game; the Reds have also now won four straight. Cincinnati's offense has started to roll, as Adam Dunn has four homers in his past nine games. Ken Griffey Jr. has also begun hitting better, and although the power still isn't there, he has gotten on base at a .472 clip in his last eight games. Griffey still stands three homers short of becoming the sixth player to reach 600, and while he isn't likely to climb closer today--Carmona has allowed just 17 homers in 263 2/3 innings over the past two seasons, or 0.6 HR/9--Griffey has feasted during interleague play over the course of his career. Griffey's slugging percentage in 644 plate appearances during interleague play is .587, and he has hit 49 homers in 151 games, the second most ever in interleague play, behind Jim Thome's 53.