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May 16, 2008

Prospectus Today

Interleague Advantages?

by Joe Sheehan

With just four night games on the docket, I took a rare evening away from Extra Innings to attend a USC alumni wine-tasting event last night, not expecting to write for today. When I got home, intending to catch up on Lost, I caught a small part of an exchange between Mark Grace and, I believe, Thom Brennaman, on the Diamondbacks broadcast. The topic was interleague play, with Grace talking about how NL teams don’t have a bat available to DH in AL parks, and while I didn’t hear this part, I assume he was concluding that this puts NL teams at a disadvantage in interleague play.

The thought marinated overnight in a pool of the Finger Lakes’ finest vintages. It’s not a new one, but for some reason, the argument stuck in my head. I don’t want to single out Grace—this is more a case of me hearing an idea and wanting to check it out than criticism of his take on the situation. I am curious, though; how does this play out in real life, or more accurately, how does it play out in 2008?

See, tied into the whole "offense is down in the AL" thing is that the league has put forth a weak crop of designated hitters. Some teams haven’t identified one, some are rotating four outfielders through the slot, and a number or teams have gone through two specific DHs so far this year. Here are the EqAs for the AL DHs, where "DH" is defined… well, as best as possible, based on who’s started there and what moves the teams have made lately.

Orioles: Aubrey Huff, .270
Red Sox: David Ortiz, .263
White Sox: Jim Thome, .266
Indians: Travis Hafner, .237
Tigers: Gary Sheffield, .265
Royals: Billy Butler, .255; Jose Guillen, .211
Angels: Garret Anderson, sort of, .257
Twins: Jason Kubel, .231; Craig Monroe, .290
Yankees: Hideki Matsui, .307
A’s: Frank Thomas, .254
Mariners: Jose Vidro, .188; Jeff Clement, .218
Rays: Jonny Gomes, .276; Cliff Floyd, .387 (30 PA)
Rangers: Milton Bradley, .335
Blue Jays: Matt Stairs, .291

This is the AL’s competitive advantage in interleague play? Conceding that some of these EqAs don’t quite reflect the true talent level of the players involved, it’s fairly easy to see that very few AL teams are getting good production from the DH slot, or even expect to. Jose Vidro? Aubrey Huff? Garret Anderson? There’s no chance that players of that ilk are going to be positive contributors in a role where you need a .300 EqA to be an asset.