Printer-friendly

May 9, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Friday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Diamondbacks (22-12) at Cubs (19-15), 1:20 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Dan Haren (43 1/3 IP, 3.74 RA, 0.99 WHIP, 36 K) vs. Ted Lilly (37 2/3 IP, 5.97 RA, 1.41 WHIP, 29 K)
Pythagorean Record: Arizona, 22-13 (201 RS, 148 RA); Chicago, 21-13 (195 RS, 151 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Arizona, #1; Chicago, #2
Prospectus: The Cubs limp home after going 2-4 on their road trip and falling two behind St. Louis in the NL Central. They return to meet Arizona for the first time since the 2007 NLDS, when the D'backs swept Chicago out of the first round. Lilly started Game Two in that series at Chase Field, and was hit hard--the lasting image from the series is Lilly taking his glove off and slamming it onto the field immediately after surrendering a second-inning three-run homer to Chris B. Young, something that manager Lou Piniella said he had never seen before. Piniella didn't have a good series, either, as he was widely criticized for taking ace Carlos Zambrano out of Game One after six innings, one run allowed, and just 85 pitches; in the seventh, reliever Carlos Marmol gave up two runs, including a leadoff homer to Mark Reynolds, to provide the margin of victory. Marmol has had no such outings this season, ranking second in the majors in both WXRL and ARP, and first amongst relievers with 28 strikeouts. He has been one of few Cubs relievers to perform well, however, as Chicago is last in the NL in team WXRL. The pitcher perhaps struggling the most has been closer Kerry Wood, who has pitched poorly (blowing three saves) in the team's highest-leverage situations. The bullpen's bad showing helps explain why Chicago has underperformed its Pythagorean record despite ranking second in the NL in runs and fourth in SNLVAR.

The Cubs defense has also been excellent overall, ranking third in the majors in efficiency, although center field has not been a strong point. Reed Johnson entered the season with just 64 career games in center, and has a range factor per nine innings there of 1.88 this year, far below the major league average (2.71) and that of Felix Pie (2.61), his co-habitant at the position. Pie has an excellent defensive reputation, and ranked fourth among center fielders last season in Total Defense. Pie's glove is good enough for the Cubs to bear with his slow start at the plate in a full-time role--Johnson is hitting poorly too, after all--and Pie should certainly be playing in games started by Lilly, the one fly-ball pitcher currently in the Cubs rotation.

Matchup: Braves (18-15) at Pirates (15-19), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Tom Glavine (22 IP, 4.90 RA, 1.73 WHIP, 11 K) vs. Ian Snell (40 2/3 IP, 5.31 RA, 1.65 WHIP, 25 K)
Pythagorean Record: Atlanta, 21-12 (169 RS, 124 RA); Pittsburgh, 15-19 (171 RS, 192 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Atlanta, #8; Pittsburgh, #29
Prospectus: The Braves finally notched their first one-run victory yesterday afternoon after nine losses, a 5-4 decision over San Diego in their 33^rd game. Manny Acosta got the final out in the top of the ninth inning, then received the victory when the Braves pushed across a run in the bottom of the frame. Acosta has been fortunate recently--on Wednesday, he recorded his third save by getting just two outs in a 5-2 game. Or did he? Both the ESPN.com and Yahoo! Sports box scores from the game credit Acosta with a save, as does the AP game story. But neither the CBS Sportsline nor MLB.com box scores do, which is the correct ruling--in order to earn a save in a three-run game one must either pitch a full inning or enter with the tying run at least on deck. Neither condition was satisfied when Acosta came on with one down and none on. The confusion over Wednesday's ending stems from Bobby Cox's unusual bullpen usage lately--with Rafael Soriano still experiencing elbow soreness and Peter Moylan out for the year, Cox has gone to a committee approach in the ninth, playing lefty-righty matchups and utilizing a quick hook to preserve leads.

The Braves won Thursday despite a 1-for-5 game from the majors' leading hitter, Chipper Jones, who saw his batting average fall from .429 to .421. Jones's torrid start has led to the highest average through 140 plate appearances since 2000, when the legendary Chris Stynes was hitting .472. Stynes hit .267 the rest of the way to finish with a .334 average, illustrating how difficult it is to even approach the .400 mark over a full season, and how fluky batting average can be over a short period of time. Besides Stynes, the other players since 1960 who were hitting at least .421 after 140 PA are a bit more famous: Paul O'Neill (.460 in 1994), Rod Carew (.443 in 1983), Barry Bonds (.432 in 1993), Rico Carty (.429 in 1970), and Larry Walker (.421 in 1997). The highest season-ending average for any of those campaigns was .366, achieved by both Carty and Walker. In all, there have been 24 starts of .400 or better through 140 PA since 1960, a list that doesn't include the two closest approaches to a .400 average in a full season, Tony Gwynn's 1994 (.394) or George Brett's 1980 (.390).