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April 7, 2008

Prospectus Today

Milwaukee Mash-up

by Joe Sheehan

Barry Zito's career has been declared over by a goodly chunk of the baseball universe, and he made his second unimpressive start yesterday. The Giants southpaw allowed eight hits, including two homers, and two walks in five innings, a virtual replay of his Opening Day start against the Dodgers.

You might give him a pass this time, because of the opponent. The Brewers are a trendy pick to win an improving NL Central, with a fantastic homegrown core and what they hope will be an improved defense and bullpen this year. The Brewers hit for a ton of power, strike out a lot, and walk a bit less than you’d like; it's a combination that might potentially create a small OBP issue. Overall, however, it’s a good baseball team building on 2007’s success and leveraging some excellent player development, which makes the Brewers one of the game’s great stories.

However, within that offense there's a pretty big split. The Brewers are a good team against righties, what with lefty bomber Prince Fielder anchoring the order. However, the team’s potential to beat up on southpaws should have United Nations peacekeepers on alert. Last year, they collectively eviscerated lefties to the tune of .288/.360/.499, a far cry from their .252/.316/.439 mark against right-handers. This is even with the great and powerful Fielder posting an 1100/834 OPS split versus righties and lefties.

Let’s look at this in more detail. What follows are the Brewers lineups against lefties and righties, more or less, with the players’ career stats (through 2007) against that side:

vs. RHPs         AVG   OBP   SLG      vs. LHPs         AVG   OBP   SLG
Rickie Weeks    .249  .345  .403      Rickie Weeks    .250  .392  .433
Anthony Gwynn   .257  .307  .320      Gabe Kapler     .288  .340  .468
Prince Fielder  .290  .381  .570      Prince Fielder  .256  .339  .489
Ryan Braun      .282  .319  .526      Ryan Braun      .450  .516  .964
Bill Hall       .262  .310  .461      Bill Hall       .270  .350  .484
Corey Hart      .270  .315  .486      Corey Hart      .313  .389  .544
J.J. Hardy      .251  .308  .383      J.J. Hardy      .297  .359  .558
Jason Kendall   .297  .374  .387      Jason Kendall   .297  .379  .418

Source: Baseball Reference.com

Which one would you rather face? The Brewers have a serious OBP issue against right-handed pitchers, and even if you concede that Corey Hart is getting better, it is not a particularly good lineup against righties. I’ve been yammering about Bill Hall for years, and the facts remain that a .310 OBP from a third baseman is more problem than solution. If nothing else, Ned Yost needs to switch Hall and Hart in the lineup, and I would be inclined to play Craig Counsell—or better still, some traded-for option—at third three days a week.