Doctoring The Numbers:... (04/05)
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April 5, 2008 Preseason Predictions2008 Staff Picks, National LeagueToday we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the National League, along with the staff picks in some fun miscellaneous categories. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. First-place votes are in parentheses. NL East Team Average New York Mets 1.2 (14) Atlanta Braves 2.2 (2) Philadelphia Phillies 2.6 (1) Washington Nationals 4.1 Florida Marlins 4.9 NL Central Team Average Chicago Cubs 1.5 (9) Milwaukee Brewers 1.5 (8) Cincinnati Reds 2.9 St. Louis Cardinals 4.8 Houston Astros 4.9 Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2 NL West Team Average Los Angeles Dodgers 1.6 (11) Arizona Diamondbacks 2.1 (5) Colorado Rockies 2.9 (1) San Diego Padres 3.6 San Francisco Giants 4.9 Individual Awards: For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 for a second-place vote, etc). Next to each selection we've listed the total number of ballots followed by the total number of points, followed by the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received. NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY
Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Brewers Dodgers
Phillies* Cubs Rockies
Braves Reds Padres
Nationals Cardinals Diamondbacks
Marlins Pirates Giants
Astros
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: John Gibbons The Game to Watch: September 27--Behind three RBI from Evan Longoria, another strong outing from Scott Kazmir, and successful innings of relief from September call-ups David Price and Wade Davis, the Rays blow out the Tigers 9-1 for their 81st win of the year, clinching the first non-losing season in franchise history. Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Zach Duke Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Tony Pena Jr. Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Ryan Howard The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Howie Kendrick Best Player traded at the July deadline: Huston Street First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Tim Beckham Barry Bonds Signs With: Nobody Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Zero The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: the Cardinals, in July The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Giants The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Mets Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Cubs Diamondbacks
Braves* Brewers Dodgers
Phillies Reds Rockies
Nationals Astros Padres
Marlins Cardinals Giants
Pirates
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: John McLaren The Game to Watch: September 21st, Tigers at Indians. It'll be the last head-to-head in great division matchup. Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Matt Cain Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Nate Schierholtz Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Ryan Howard The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Ichiro Suzuki Best Player traded at the July deadline: Pat Burrell Barry Bonds Signs With: Yankees, July 17 Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Zero The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Cardinals, May 20 The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Angels, 85-89 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Rangers, 69-92 wins Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Cubs Dodgers
Phillies* Brewers Diamondbacks
Braves Reds Rockies
Nationals Cardinals Padres
Marlins Pirates Giants
Astros
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: Cecil Cooper The Game to Watch: All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Daniel Cabrera Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Jason Kendall Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Ryan Howard The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Tony Pena Jr. Best Player traded at the July deadline: Jason Bay First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Tim Beckham Barry Bonds Signs With: Nobody Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): No additional suspensions as a result of the Mitchell Report, but the threat of those suspensions will be used as leverage to enhance the existing testing program. The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Cardinals, June 27th The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Cubs, 86-90 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Rays, 74-89 wins Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Braves Brewers Dodgers
Mets Cubs* Diamondbacks
Phillies Reds Rockies
Nationals Cardinals Padres
Marlins Astros Giants
Pirates
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: Cecil Cooper The Game to Watch: September 16th, Brewers at Cubs. Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Matt Cain Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Jason Kendall Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Ryan Howard The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Howie Kendrick Best Player traded at the July deadline: Joe Nathan First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Tim Beckham Barry Bonds Signs With: Mets, May 31st The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Pirates, July The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Padres, 80-84 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Astros, 67-85 wins Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Cubs Dodgers
Phillies* Brewers Diamondbacks
Braves Reds Rockies
Nationals Pirates Padres
Marlins Cardinals Giants
Astros
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY
1. Kosuke Fukudome The First Manager to Get Fired: John Gibbons Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Matt Cain Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Nick Punto Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Jack Cust The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Ivan Rodriguez Best Player traded at the July deadline: Adam Dunn First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Tim Beckham Barry Bonds Signs With: Mets, June Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Two The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Blue Jays, July The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Giants, 60-63 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Phillies, 83-91 wins Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Brewers Dodgers
Braves Cubs* Rockies
Phillies Reds Diamondbacks
Nationals Cardinals Padres
Marlins Astros Giants
Pirates
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Matt Cain Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Jose Lopez Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Adam Dunn The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Corey Patterson Best Player traded at the July deadline: Rich Harden Barry Bonds Signs With: Orioles, July 1st Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Paul Lo Duca The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Blue Jays, July 31st The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Red Sox, 85-95 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Reds, 70-90 wins Standings
AL East NL Central NL West
Mets Cubs Rockies
Braves* Brewers Dodgers
Phillies Reds Padres
Marlins Astros Giants
Nationals Pirates Diamondbacks
Cardinals
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: John Gibbons Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Daniel Cabrera Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Cesar Izturis Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Adam Dunn The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Luis Hernandez Best Player traded at the July deadline: Paul Konerko First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Tim Beckham Barry Bonds Signs With: San Diego, June 1st Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Zero The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Pirates, All-Star break Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Cubs Dodgers
Braves* Brewers Diamondbacks
Phillies Reds Rockies
Nationals Astros Padres
Marlins Pirates Giants
Cardinals
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: John McLaren Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Matt Cain Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Cristian Guzman Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Ryan Howard The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Howie Kendrick Best Player traded at the July deadline: Joe Nathan First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Pedro Alvarez Barry Bonds Signs With: Texas, Memorial Day The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Minnesota, when it realizes that Joe Nathan isn't a good investment of resources on a 90-loss club. The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Rangers (~65 win downside, 80-win upside) The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: A's (~92-win upside, 65-win downside) Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Cubs Diamondbacks
Phillies Brewers* Dodgers
Braves Reds Padres
Nationals Astros Rockies
Marlins Pirates Giants
Cardinals
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: Ron Washington The Game(s) to Watch: Wednesday, July 23rd--At 1:05 PM, the Twins will be at Yankee Stadium, and at 7:10 PM, the Phillies are at Shea Stadium. This is an excellent chance to see complete ballgames at both doomed New York ballparks on the same day. Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Tim Lincecum Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Tony Pena Jr. Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Ryan Howard The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Ivan Rodriguez Best Player traded at the July deadline: Jim Thome Barry Bonds Signs With: White Sox, May 15th Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Zero The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Blue Jays, July 15th The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Yankees, 93-97 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Dodgers, 75-90 wins Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Cubs Dodgers
Phillies Brewers* Diamondbacks
Braves Reds Rockies
Nationals Cardinals Padres
Marlins Astros Giants
Pirates
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: John McLaren The Game to Watch: Monday, April 14th, Yankees at Rays--Scott Kazmir makes his season debut against Joba Chamberlain after an early injury to the Yankees staff forces the youngster into the rotation. Both throw six shutout innings, Upton homers in the bottom of the seventh to force Joba from the game, and Kazmir finishes the win in a promising return from the elbow scare. Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Matt Morris, NL; Steve Trachsel, AL Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Cesar Izturis Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Ryan Howard The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Adam Everett Best Player traded at the July deadline: Joe Blanton First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Pedro Alvarez Barry Bonds Signs With: Indians, June 2. The problem here is that it makes the most sense for teams like the Indians or Mariners to sign him, but they don't seem willing to assume the risk and the off-field concerns. However, both could make huge upgrades at LF and DH, respectively, and at some point, the impact on the field has to trump all the other issues. Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Zero The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Padres, July 10th (NL); Blue Jays, June 10th (AL) The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Both the Blue Jays and Padres fit this question well, and both being smart enough to recognize that they're in divisions with established powers (Blue Jays) or already-built young teams (Padres), both seem likely to be right around 78 to 82 wins, and will hopefully recognize it and choose to rebuild early enough to make trading season exciting. The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Mariners (AL)--They could win 88 again if they manage to get decent performances out of the bottom of the rotation (Silva, Washburn, Batista) and the offense is decent, which isn't a stretch if they sign a real DH and get some power out of Sexson and Ibanez; of course, it's probably more likely that only Bedard, Felix, and Putz are assets on the mound and only Beltre and Ichiro are useful at the plate, and in that case they'll struggle to win 76 games. Reds (NL)--With several blossoming youngsters in Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez, the Reds could get moderately good performances from Keppinger and Valentin, or a breakout from Edwin Encarnacion or return to 2006 form for Corey Patterson, and let their stars like Dunn and Harang lead the way to a win total in the upper 80s; if the youngsters stay in the minors or aren't ready for the big time yet, it would take special contributions from guys like Griffey and Arroyo to keep them above 77 wins. Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Cubs Diamondbacks
Braves Brewers Dodgers*
Phillies Reds Rockies
Nationals Astros Padres
Marlins Cardinals Giants
Pirates
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: Charlie Manuel The Game to Watch: Yankees at Red Sox, September 26--first game of the final series of the season--who knows what could be on the line? Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Daniel Cabrera Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Juan Uribe Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Jack Cust The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Pedro Feliz Best Player traded at the July deadline: Roy Oswalt First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Pedro Alvarez Barry Bonds Signs With: Reds, whenever Ken Griffey Jr. hits the DL Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Zero The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Astros, July The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Rangers, 10-win spread The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Phillies, 25-win spread Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Brewers Diamondbacks
Mets Cubs Dodgers*
Braves Reds Rockies
Marlins Pirates Padres
Nationals Cardinals Giants
Astros
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: John Gibbons The Game to Watch: The first Mets/Yankees game that Johan Santana starts. Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Gil Meche Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Cesar Izturis Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Ryan Howard The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Jeff Francoeur Best Player traded at the July deadline: Adam Dunn Barry Bonds Signs With: Angels, August 7th Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Six The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Giants, All-Star Break The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Orioles, 68-72 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Reds, 75-90 wins Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Braves Brewers Dodgers
Mets* Cubs Diamondbacks
Phillies Reds Padres
Nationals Pirates Rockies
Marlins Cardinals Giants
Astros
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: Dave Trembley. Expectations aren't high, but that doesn't mean you don't have to win games. The Game to Watch: Detroit at Cleveland, September 19th. The Indians and Tigers begin a three-game series neck-and-neck for the division lead, with the Angels (and maybe another team or two) also in the wild card race. Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Barry Zito. If you start a lot of games for a team with a poor offense, well... Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): I hate trying to predict things like this, but with a gun at my head I'd say Brad Ausmus, but only because he regularly gets votes here; I respect Ausmus as a player. Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Adam Dunn. He'll also have a good OPS, but that's not the question. The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Nomar Garciaparra Best Player traded at the July deadline: Rich Harden First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Pedro Alvarez Barry Bonds Signs With: Sing Sing Giants. When? Does it really matter? Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Three The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Athletics, July The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Indians, five-game spread The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Mets, 15-game spread Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Cubs Dodgers
Braves* Brewers Rockies
Phillies Reds Diamondbacks
Nationals Cardinals Padres
Marlins Astros Giants
Pirates
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: John Gibbons The Game to Watch: University of Miami vs. University of Missouri; College World Series, June 27th Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Barry Zito Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Tony Pena Jr. Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Jack Cust The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Tony Pena Jr. Best Player traded at the July deadline: Paul Konerko First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Aaron Crow Barry Bonds Signs With: San Diego, July 4th The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Orioles, June 15th The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Phillies, 86-89 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Rays, 72-85 wins Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Brewers Dodgers
Braves* Reds Diamondbacks
Phillies Cubs Padres
Nationals Astros Rockies
Marlins Cardinals Giants
Pirates
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: Ron Washington The Game to Watch: All of them (if you can). Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Noah Lowry Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Adam Everett Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Carlos Pena The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Bengie Molina Best Player traded at the July deadline: Hank Blalock Barry Bonds Signs With: San Diego, June 4 Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): One The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Giants, April 15th The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Padres, 78-82 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Rays, 69-85 wins Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Brewers Dodgers
Braves Cubs* Diamondbacks
Phillies Reds Rockies
Nationals Astros Padres
Marlins Cardinals Giants
Pirates
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: John Gibbons The Game to Watch: September 19th, Mets at Braves. Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Barry Zito Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Tony Pena Jr. Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Ryan Howard The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Ivan Rodriguez Best Player traded at the July deadline: Joe Blanton First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Brian Matusz Barry Bonds Signs With: Padres, May Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Seven The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Reds, July The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Rangers, 70-78 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Phillies, 74-92 wins Standings
NL East NL Central NL West
Mets Brewers Diamondbacks
Braves Cubs* Dodgers
Phillies Reds Padres
Nationals Pirates Rockies
Marlins Cardinals Giants
Astros
NL MVP
NL Cy Young
NL RotY The First Manager to Get Fired: John McLaren The Game to Watch: Cubs at Brewers, September 28 Brian Kingman Award (pitcher most likely to lose 20): Wandy Rodriguez Cristian Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Joe Crede Jose Hernandez Award (most strikeouts, batter): Jack Cust The 2008 DiSar Award Winner (most AB before first walk): Pablo Ozuna Best Player traded at the July deadline: Jason Bay First Player picked in the June amateur draft: Aaron Crow Barry Bonds Signs With: Oakland, June 4th Players named in the Mitchell Report who will be suspended (of 89): Zero The team that first decides to blast down to the foundations will be the: Astros, July The team with the smallest spread between its upside and downside potential: Orioles, 60-66 wins The team with the widest spread between its upside and downside potential: Rays, 75-90 wins
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