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March 5, 2008

BP Fantasy Beat

The Infielders

by Marc Normandin

For those who missed last week’s outfield rankings, the explanation of how these lists were created can be found there. With five positions to cover this time around, this is a meaty piece, so it’s time to dive right in.

Catcher
Rnk Player                  AVG/ OBP/ SLG   HR   SB  RBI    R  VORP  Beta
 1. Russell Martin         .284/.370/.439   13   14   63   75  29.9  0.85
 2. Victor Martinez        .293/.369/.457   18    2   86   75  31.7  0.94
 3. Jorge Posada           .287/.380/.479   19    4   78   74  37.1  0.88
 4. Brian McCann           .281/.344/.471   19    3   79   65  29.7  0.81
 5. Joe Mauer              .295/.375/.420    9   10   62   79  30.4  0.94
 6. J.R. Towles            .268/.334/.433   13   12   55   61  20.0  0.89
 7. Geovany Soto           .273/.352/.470   19    2   69   60  23.5  0.77
 8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia  .269/.337/.447   16    3   61   54  15.1  1.23
 9. Josh Bard              .286/.364/.409    7    3   50   52  26.7  1.00
10. Jason Varitek          .255/.352/.420   11    2   49   45  13.1  0.94

Martin is an obvious #1 thanks to his steals; there aren’t many catchers who are going to nab double digits in base thefts for you, and Martin’s other numbers are all good enough that you don’t take a hit because of prioritizing his speed. Victor Martinez is #2 thanks to his ability to play first base as well, which can come up in big in leagues with daily roster changes. Posada and McCann can be flipped back and forth in the rankings, depending on your faith in Posada keeping it up as he ages; both players are going to give you some power, and the lineups they are in should generate some Run and RBI opportunities.

Joe Mauer may seem low, but PECOTA isn’t too thrilled with him. He’s got the batting average and he’ll steal some bases for you, but his power is lacking (not as big of a deal at catcher as other positions thanks to the overall lack of offense at the position), and the Twins lineup this year is awful. If he weren’t hitting in the middle of it, I’d scoff at those run and RBI forecasts. If Houston goes through its plan to start Towles, he'll provide a huge boost to a position lacking in offense, and even he will swipe some bases for you.

PECOTA loves Soto; his Beta of 0.77 should show the faith it invests in that forecast. It’s a tasty-looking line even before noticing that. Jarrod Saltalamacchia may or may not sit behind the plate much this year, but he’s listed at the position. Think of him as the poor man’s version of Victor Martinez that you draft much, much later. Josh Bard doesn’t have much in the way of power or steals, but he should hit high enough in the Padres order to snag some R and RBI, and he should hit for a solid batting average. Jason Varitek is #10 not because he really earned it, but because there’s almost no one else who is going to get significant playing time and produce at the same time.

First Base
Rnk Player            AVG/ OBP/ SLG   HR   SB  RBI    R  VORP  Beta
 1. Albert Pujols    .327/.427/.577   32    8  115  120  73.1  1.02
 2. Prince Fielder   .287/.384/.560   38    7  111  106  49.3  0.98
 3. Ryan Howard      .273/.381/.574   44    2  100  122  42.7  0.95
 4. Mark Teixeira    .295/.394/.547   32    3  103  102  48.8  1.06
 5. Lance Berkman    .281/.389/.515   30    7   99   99  42.0  0.97
 6. Derrek Lee       .303/.387/.527   25   13   91   94  37.7  0.86
 7. Adrian Gonzalez  .281/.348/.492   28    4   99   84  36.9  0.94
 8. Carlos Pena      .259/.372/.500   33    3   99   92  30.6  0.96
 9. Todd Helton      .309/.415/.488   15    5   75   86  24.1  1.15
10. James Loney      .290/.353/.461   18    6   84   81  21.9  0.91

Before I say anything else, let me mention that the #10 spot is sort of a three-way tie. Justin Morneau must have done something to offend PECOTA this winter, because his forecasted line is just .271/.339/.465 with 24 homers. If you need the home runs, then Morneau could be your #10, but remember that, like Mauer at catcher, there isn’t much help for his RBI and R. The other guy who could be at #10 is Conor Jackson, with a forecasted line of .298/.385/.493. The only reason he is not on the list above instead of Loney is playing time; on our fantasy Depth Charts, he’s listed for 80 percent of the playing time with two other players sharing duties, while Loney has 85 percent and only has to deal with the brittle Nomar Garciaparra as competition.