Printer-friendly

Contact Author

December 6, 2007

Future Shock

Rule Five Wrapup

by Kevin Goldstein

For the teams themselves, the Rule Five Draft can have an incredible return on investment. For the media? Not so much. As a ratio of talent to the amount of time and work put into doing previews and trying to get scoops and all that good stuff, the Rule Five offers a ratio of talent to effort that is possibly unrivaled to any other event in professional sports. By that, I mean that we’re getting worked up about some pretty marginal talent. Still, some of this guys are going to stick, so let's talk about who went where today.

1. Rays select RHP Tim Lahey from the Twins, and then trade him to the Cubs. Lahey was a star catcher at Princeton, but he only lasted one year behind the plate before being moved to the mound, as his tremendous power was rendered valueless by a complete inability to make contact. On the mound, it’s been a different story. Lahey is absolutely massive at 6'5” and 250 pounds, and he get a good downward plane on his splitter, which is his primary offering and gives him an excellent ground-ball ratio.
Chances To Stick: It would have been better with the Rays, where nearly any carbon-based life form would have a chance to make the bullpen, but even with the Cubs he could mop up here and there and develop into a decent middle reliever, but little more.

2. Pirates select RHP Evan Meek from the Rays. I’m still getting used to them just being the Rays, without the Devil. That represents a big decrease in name quality for me, but for the record, people with the team get really annoyed when you use the old name. Now, to Meek. He was once a pretty hot young arm in the Minnesota system, but that was before he contracted a case of the yips, as he walked 76 in 46 innings in 2004 and 2005. The Twins gave up on him, but he velocity was still there, and the Padres gave him a shot based on a private workout in which his heat sat consistently in the upper 90s. San Diego worked hard on improving his mechanics and his confidence, and he pitched so-so in the California League, but good enough to be dealt to Tampa Bay at the end of 2006 for Russ Branyan. The Devil Rays did the right thing by moving him to the bullpen, where he profiles better. He still throws hard, still has control problems (but nothing like those dark years), and still needs better secondary pitches.
Chances To Stick: Meek might be the best chance of any pick to be lightning in a bottle, but those chances are still slim. He’ll probably stick, as a big guy who throws hard in a bad bullpen for a bad team.

3. Orioles select RHP Randor Bierd from the Tigers. Bierd is a classic sinker/slider pitcher who misses a lot of bats with both pitches when he’s not generating ground-ball outs with them. The concern scouts have with him is that his fastball has no more than average velocity, but it plays up due to excellent movement and location. His slider is a true plus pitch, but there are many minor league relievers who have combined average velocity with a plus breaking ball to put up big numbers, and their track record in the majors tends to be disappointing.
Chances To Stick: Pretty good. Bierd's control will hopefully separate himself from the pack of generic relievers with his kind of arsenal.

4. Giants select LHP Jose Capellan from the Red Sox. Astute readers of BP already know a bit about Capellan, as I recently called him Boston’s sleeper prospect as part of my Red Sox prospect rankings after he compiled an impressive 71/11 strikeout ratio in 75 2/3 New York-Penn League innings. He’s a skinny lefty with an average fastball but solid secondary stuff and very good command.
Chances To Stick: Low. This is really a strange pick. I guess being left-handed helps, but it’s just too difficult to see a pitcher having any success in the majors when he’s never even pitched in a full-season league.