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July 31, 2007

The Mill

The Day

by Baseball Prospectus

Jim Hendry denies that he's made Felix Pie available, and states that he hasn't talked to Jon Daniels. He's not lying, but once you grasp the mechanics of how a trade is actually made, you'll realize that what Hendry says is not mutually exclusive from the reports that Pie was discussed. It's not just Hendry, Daniels, or any GM that's making calls. It's also a club's scouts, assistants, and even some owners get involved. In the course of those discussions, players get named and then discussed among everybody in the other organization. Teams try to read the other, like poker players. The Indians' DiamondView system is reported to actually have a system for collecting this type of information, with their staff supposedly recording mentions of players year round to try to divine who might be mentioned and who might actually be available. I can assure you that Pie was discussed by at least two teams that thought he might be included in a later offer—offers that never materialized.

If Adam Dunn ends up with the Nationals, it will have to be through the offices of a third team. The Nats have had discussions with the Mets, Red Sox, and Tigers over the past few days, usually about their available relievers, but some sources believe that Dunn could be the ultimate goal. Multiple reports have Dunn has been telling people that he would love to be reunited with his close friend Austin Kearns, and would consider extending his deal if traded to Washington.

A couple of days ago, Octavio Dotel was thought to be one of the top available relievers. Now, he's going to be dealt in a secondary deal made for Kyle Davies, a guy that the Braves coaching staff had lost faith in. How did Dotel's value drop--or did it? The Indians had their offer on the table (thought to be Ben Francisco), and the Tigers never seemed to jump in. The Dodgers haven't been able to do much of anything because of arguments about who's untouchable and who isn't withinin that organization. Royals GM Dayton Moore knows Kyle Davies from his days in the Braves organization, and that familiarity plus Davies' upside made this deal happen.

Are the Dodgers really so "injury ravaged", as one report put it, that they have to trade for a starter? Yes, Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf are out, and yes, Derek Lowe and Brad Penny have recent injuries that raise some concern. But "ravaged" seems a bit strong for a team that seemingly planned for this kind of depth. Remember that Brad Penny was on the market this spring since the team was worried about his stamina and stockpiled guys like Mark Hendrickson and Brett Tomko to back things up. With Chad Billingsley, D.J. Houlton, and Eric Stults all there, I'm not sure that giving up the prospects it will take to get even a fifth starter in this thin market is going to bring them much better than what they have on hand. The reports that Joe Blanton is being discussed are interesting, since he'd be instantly the best starter available, meaning that the Dodgers will have to bid high to make sure other teams aren't knocking down Billy Beane's door.

Trusted sources tell me that the Mobile Bears have been instructed to have Justin Upton "ready to go." Since Upton is untouchable as Eliot Ness, I have to believe that Upton is on the verge of a callup. The Diamondbacks are likely to get as much production out of Upton as they are from anyone they could reasonably acquire, including Jermaine Dye. I'll leave it to Kevin to tell you why Upton's this special, but he is. One other factor that may play into this is that manager Brett Butler, who the organization says was a phenomenal influence on Upton, is unlikely to return to the team this season after suffering a mild stroke.

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