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July 29, 2007

Prospectus Today

The Vision Thing

by Joe Sheehan

The Washington Nationals, last in the National League East, in dire need of an influx of younger talent at every level of the organization, have taken one of their top trade chips—a player having a fluke season at age 33—off of the market. Instead, they’re committing to the player’s age-34 and -35 seasons at a cost of $10 million over the two years.

A year ago, Jim Bowden’s inability to trade Alfonso Soriano, also in the middle of a career year and also on the brink of free agency, was a blow to the Nats’ development as a franchise. For all the talk about “two draft picks,” picking up a sandwich pick and a second-rounder—teams in the top 15 of the draft don’t surrender their #1 pick by signing free agents—isn’t a good haul, not when we know that the top of the draft is a place where the value of a pick slips precipitously after the top few slots. Whatever you believe about the offers that came in, Soriano would likely have returned two major league-ready players with middling upsides who would be under cost control for five to six years. You build championship teams with players like that.

It could be argued that Soriano was a star. He eventually signed with the Cubs for eight years and $136 million, so clearly the market treated him as one. Any defense of Bowden for his decision rests on the idea that signing Soriano would have given the team a star player, someone to build around. I disagree with the premise that Soriano is that guy, but his 2006-07 performance, his reward from free agency, and his perception within the game all argue for it.

What they’ve done this year, however, defies explanation. One of the last remaining free agents this spring was Ronnie Belliard, a middling second baseman whose career fits the definition of “journeyman.” The lack of demand for his services at the age of 32 was mildly surprising, and reflective of his limited value as a bench player. The Nationals signed him in March to bolster their middle infield, and have been rewarded by a .298/.342/.425 line through four months, figures buoyed by his highest batting average since 1999. His defense is passable, not much more, and given the condition he keeps himself in, you can expect his range to decline over time.

With all that, last week the Nationals signed Belliard to a two-year deal, albeit at a low price, through 2009. They’ve allowed themselves to be fooled by an inflated batting average—as Belliard’s walk and strikeout rates continue to deteriorate—and their own desperation for major league infielders this season. The only positive to this deal is its price tag, $3.75 million total, a cost that will be easy to swallow should Belliard fall off a cliff—a near certainty—in the next two years.