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May 22, 2007

Wait 'Til Next Year

The Scouting Directors, AL Central

by Bryan Smith

Last Tuesday, I started an attempt to identify the drafting tendencies of Major League scouting directors. Like football coaches, I surmised, any person of power in sport falls back to tradition when making important choices. This is basically a case study in making a mock draft without inside knowledge--I'm wondering what the past can tell us about the future.

In looking at the scouting directors, I'm analyzing them in multiple categories: Best Player Produced, Best Prospect in Minors, Notable Steals (any notable player that was drafted after round 5), Five-Round Strategy (total picks in first round divided by college and high school selections), and Strategy in a Nutshell (subjective look at the scouting director's choices). Finally, I use this information to look into the 2007 Draft Crystal Ball and determine if we can forecast choices merely based upon previous tendencies. Today, we continue the series, looking at the AL Central. You can find the AL West here, and the NL West here.

Chicago White Sox
Scouting Director: Duane Shaffer (Drafts Run: 1991-2000, 2004-2006)

Best Player Produced: Joe Crede (5th round, 1996)
Best Prospect in Minors: Gio Gonzalez (1st round, 2004)
Notable Steals: Mike Cameron (18th round, 1991), Mike Sirotka (15th round, 1993), Chad Bradford (13th round, 1996), Aaron Cunningham (6th round, 2005)
Five-Round Strategy: 81 total picks. 59.2% college, 34.6% high school, 6.2% junior college.
Strategy in a Nutshell: Shaffer has about as much experience as any scouting director in baseball, and while I'm only giving him credit for 13 drafts, it's also possible he ran the room from 2001-2003. The White Sox farm system has been very volatile during Shaffer's tenure, from one of the game's best with Jon Rauch in the late 90s to one of the worst currently. Recently, Shaffer has drawn criticism for taking the "safe" choices in the first round, notably Lance Broadway and Kyle McCulloch. In reality, the players represent Shaffer's favorite kind of pick--college pitching. If he doesn't go in that direction, the White Sox have also chosen a lot of projectable outfielders and a good number of corner players with good power. However, Shaffer is a pitching-heavy drafter, and even with the depth the Sox system has found in pitching this season, he likely won't shy away in June.
2007 Draft Crystal Ball: The White Sox choose 25th in each round this season, with no picks added or taken away. With Chicago's pick, I could see Shaffer selecting Nick Schmidt, Michael Burgess, Kyle Russell, or Kevin Ahrens; all seem to match his previous tendencies.