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April 2, 2007

Preseason Predictions

2007 Staff Picks, National League and World Series

by Baseball Prospectus

Yesterday we started our predictions miniseries with a look at the American League. Opening Day means that it's time for our National League and World Series picks.

Each author's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division, plus the results of our preseason MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. Coming off of their win on the season's inaugural night, BP likes the Mets to take the NL East again, and sees a three-team horse race in the Central.

Standings:

NL EAST

Team                      Average
New York Mets              1.5
Philadelphia Phillies      1.9
Atlanta Braves             2.6
Florida Marlins            3.9
Washington Nationals       5.0

NL CENTRAL

Team                      Average
Chicago Cubs               2.15
Milwaukee Brewers          2.2
St. Louis Cardinals        2.3
Houston Astros             4.0
Cincinnati Reds            4.8
Pittsburgh Pirates         5.4

NL WEST

Team                      Average
San Diego Padres           1.9
Arizona Diamondbacks       1.9
Los Angeles Dodgers        2.6
San Francisco Giants       4.2
Colorado Rockies           4.3

World Series Predictions

Author               Winner        Loser
-------------------------------------------
Kevin Goldstein      Red Sox       Mets
Joe Sheehan          D'Backs       Yankees
Dan Fox              Phillies      Indians
Marc Normandin       Indians       Padres
Jay Jaffe            Padres        Yankees
John Perrotto        Yankees       Dodgers
Nate Silver          D'Backs       Angels
Ben Murphy           D'Backs       Indians
Will Carroll         Brewers       Indians
Alex Carnevale       Red Sox       Phillies
Keith Woolner        Indians       Padres
Derek Jacques        Yankees       Mets

Individual Awards:

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's five points for a first-place vote, three for a second-place vote, etc.).

Next to each selection we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, followed by the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals. 11 92 (7)
2. Jose Reyes, SS, Mets. 4 36 (2)
3. David Wright, 3B, Mets. 4 29 (1)
4. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Marlins. 3 21 (0)
5. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies. 3 20 (1)
6. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies. 2 17 (1)
7. Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs. 2 12
8. Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros. 1 10 (1)
9t. Brian McCann, C, Braves. 1 7
9t. Carlos Beltran, CF, Mets. 1 7
9t. Matt Holliday, LF, Rockies. 1 7
12t. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs. 1 5
12t. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers. 1 5
12t. Stephen Drew, SS, D'Backs. 1 5
12t. Andruw Jones, CF, Braves. 1 5
12t. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins. 1 5

NL CY YOUNG

1. Brandon Webb, D'Backs. 7 23 (3)
2. Ben Sheets, Brewers. 7 19 (2)
3t. Roy Oswalt, Astros. 4 16 (2)
3t. Jake Peavy, Padres. 4 16 (2)
5. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs. 3 11 (2)
6. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals. 4 8
7t. John Smoltz, Braves. 1 5 (1)
7t. Cole Hamels, Phillies. 1 5 (1)
9t. Matt Cain, Giants. 2 4
9t. Barry Zito, Giants. 2 4
11. Brett Myers, Phillies. 1 3
12t. Ian Snell, Red Sox. 1 1
12t. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals. 1 1
12t. Randy Johnson, D'Backs. 1 1

NL ROY

1. Chris B. Young, CF, D'Backs. 13 55 (10)
2. Chris Iannetta, C, Rockies. 6 14
3. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres. 6 12 (1)
4. Yovani Gallardo, P, Brewers. 3 11 (1)
5. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies. 3 9
6. Homer Bailey, P, Reds. 2 8 (1)
7. Tim Lincecum, P, Giants. 1 4
8t. Ryan Braun, 3B, Brewers. 1 1
8t. Mike Pelfrey, P, Mets. 1 1

Individual Ballots:

In the division standings, the Wild Card team is marked with an asterisk.

Kevin Goldstein
Joe Sheehan
Dan Fox
Marc Normandin
Jay Jaffe
John Perrotto
Nate Silver
Ben Murphy
Will Carroll
Alex Carnevale
Brad Wochomurka
Keith Woolner
Derek Jacques

---

Kevin Goldstein

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets             Brewers             Diamondbacks
Phillies*        Cubs                Giants
Braves           Astros              Padres
Marlins          Cardinals           Dodgers
Nationals        Pirates             Rockies
                 Reds

NL MVP

1. Jose Reyes
2. Albert Pujols
3. Andruw Jones

NL CY YOUNG

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Brett Myers
3. Matt Cain

NL ROY

1. Chris Young
2. Kevin Kouzmanoff
3. Chris Iannetta

Joe Sheehan

STANDINGS

NL EAST        NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets           Cubs                Diamondbacks
Braves         Cardinals           Dodgers*
Phillies       Brewers             Padres
Marlins        Astros              Giants
Nationals      Pirates             Rockies
               Reds

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Brian McCann
3. Stephen Drew

NL CY YOUNG

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Brandon Webb
3. Ben Sheets

NL ROY

1. Chris Young
2. Chris Iannetta
3. Mike Pelfrey

Dan Fox

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cubs                Dodgers
Mets             Cardinals           Diamondbacks*
Braves           Brewers             Padres
Marlins          Reds                Rockies
Nationals        Astros              Giants
                 Pirates

NL MVP

1. Ryan Howard
2. Chase Utley
3. Albert Pujols

NL CY YOUNG

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Barry Zito
3. Brandon Webb

NL ROY

1. Chris Young
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Kevin Kouzmanoff

Marc Normandin

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL        NL WEST

Mets             Brewers           Padres
Phillies*        Cardinals         Diamondbacks
Braves           Cubs              Dodgers
Marlins          Reds              Giants
Nationals        Astros            Rockies
                 Pirates

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Carlos Beltran
3. Ryan Howard

NL CY YOUNG

1. Ben Sheets
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Brandon Webb

NL ROY

1. Chris Young
2. Yovani Gallardo
3. Ryan Braun

Jay Jaffe

STANDINGS

NL EAST         NL CENTRAL      NL WEST

Mets            Cardinals       Padres
Phillies*       Brewers         Dodgers
Braves          Cubs            Diamondbacks
Marlins         Reds            Rockies
Nationals       Astros          Giants
                Pirates

NL MVP

1. David Wright
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Albert Pujols

NL CY YOUNG

1. Jake Peavy
2. Brandon Webb
3. Ben Sheets

NL ROY

1. Chris Young
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Chris Iannetta

John Perrotto

STANDINGS

NL EAST         NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves          Astros              Rockies
Phillies        Cardinals           Dodgers*
Mets            Pirates             Padres
Marlins         Cubs                D'Backs
Nats            Reds                Giants
                Brewers

NL MVP

1. Lance Berkman, Houston
2. Matt Holliday, Colorado
3. Albert Pujols, St. Louis

NL CY YOUNG

1. John Smoltz, Atlanta
2. Roy Oswalt, Houston
3. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis

NL ROY

1. Chris Young, Arizona
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado
3. Mike Pelfrey, New York

Nate Silver

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets             Cubs                Diamondbacks
Phillies         Brewers             Padres*
Braves           Cardinals           Giants
Marlins          Astros              Dodgers
Nationals        Pirates             Rockies
                 Reds

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Alfonso Soriano

NL CY YOUNG

1. Brandon Webb
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Ian Snell

NL ROY

1. Chris B. Young
2. Chris Iannetta
3. Kevin Kouzmanoff

Ben Murphy

STANDINGS

NL EAST         NL CENTRAL      NL WEST

Phillies        Brewers         D'Backs
Mets*           Cubs            Padres
Braves          Astros          Dodgers
Marlins         Cardinals       Giants
Nationals       Reds            Rockies
                Pirates

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. David Wright

NL CY YOUNG

1. Brandon Webb
2. Jake Peavy
3. Ben Sheets

NL ROY

1. Chris B. Young
2. Yovani Gallardo
3. Kevin Kouzmanoff

Will Carroll

STANDINGS

NL EAST         NL CENTRAL         NL WEST
Mets            Brewers            Padres
Phillies        Cubs               Diamondbacks*
Braves          Cardinals          Dodgers
Marlins         Reds               Giants
Nationals       Astros             Rockies
                Pirates

NL MVP

1. Jose Reyes
2. Alfonso Soriano
3. Hanley Ramirez

NL CY YOUNG

1. Brandon Webb
2. Ben Sheets
3. Barry Zito

NL ROY

1. Chris B. Young
2. Chris Iannetta
3. Kevin Kouzmanoff

Alex Carnevale

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL        NL WEST

Braves           Cubs              Padres
Phillies*        Cardinals         Diamondbacks
Mets             Brewers           Dodgers
Marlins          Astros            Rockies
Nationals        Pirates           Giants
                 Reds
 

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Aramis Ramirez
3. Jose Reyes

NL CY YOUNG

1. Cole Hamels
2. Matt Cain
3. Carlos Zambrano

NL ROY

1. Yovani Gallardo
2. Homer Bailey
3. Chris B. Young

Brad Wochomurka

STANDINGS

NL EAST       NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets          Brewers             Dodgers
Phillies*     Cubs                Padres
Braves        Cardinals           D'Backs
Marlins       Reds                Rockies
Nationals     Astros              Giants
              Pirates

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Jose Reyes
3. Derrek Lee

NL CY YOUNG

1. Ben Sheets
2. Jake Peavy
3. Chris Carpenter

NL ROY

1. Homer Bailey
2. Chris Young
3. Ryan Braun

Keith Woolner

STANDINGS

NL EAST        NL CENTRAL        NL WEST

Phillies       Cardinals         Padres
Mets           Brewers*          Diamondbacks
Marlins        Astros            Dodgers
Braves         Cubs              Giants
Nationals      Reds              Rockies
               Pirates

NL MVP

1. Chase Utley
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Rickie Weeks

NL CY YOUNG

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Ben Sheets
3. Anthony Reyes

NL ROY

1. Kevin Kouzmanoff
2. Chris Iannetta
3. Chris Young

Derek Jacques

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets             Cardinals           Diamondbacks
Braves           Cubs                Padres*
Phillies         Brewers             Dodgers
Marlins          Reds                Giants
Nationals        Astros              Rockies
                 Pirates

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Ryan Howard

NL CY YOUNG

1. Jake Peavy
2. Roy Oswalt
3. Randy Johnson

NL ROY

1. Chris B. Young
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Tim Lincecum