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January 30, 2007

Future Shock

Oakland Athletics Top Ten Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. Daric Barton, 1b
2. Travis Buck, lf
Good Prospects
3. Kurt Suzuki, c
4. Javier Herrera, cf
5. Jermaine Mitchell, cf
Average Prospects
6. Matt Sulentic, lf
7. Marcus McBeth, rhp
8. Jason Windsor, rhp
9. Kevin Melillo, 2b
10. Henry Rodriguez, rhp

1. Daric Barton, 1b
DOB: 8/16/85
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, California HS (Cardinals)
What he did in 2006: .200/.200/.400 at Rookie-level (5 PA); .259/.389/.395 at AAA (180 PA)
The Good: The gifted natural hitter was holding his own as a 20-year-old at Triple-A before breaking a bone in his elbow in a freak collision on a pickoff throw. Both his approach and his pitch recognition are above-average on a major-league level, and he can make contact on pitches of any type in any location.
The Bad: Barton's power ceiling is the subject of much debate. He seems content at times to simply flick his bat out there and flare balls over the infielders' heads when he has the raw strength to hit 20+ home runs annually. His work ethic on aspects of his game other than hitting has come into question at times.
The Irrelevant: In his one year at catcher, Barton had 11 errors and 11 passed balls in just 52 games behind the plate while allowing 53 stolen bases and throwing out just 25% of attempting stealers.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A first baseman who doesn't fit into the mold we expect, yet finishes among the leaders in batting average and on-base percentage annually.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – After a lost 2006, Barton will return to Triple-A, and is still just 21 years old. He'll likely make his big league debut at the end of the year and compete for a full-time job in 2008.

2. Travis Buck, lf
DOB: 11/18/83
Height/Weight: 6-3/210
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Arizona State
What he did in 2006: .349/.400/.603 at High A (145 PA); .302/.376/.472 at AA (238 PA)
The Good: Doubles machine hit 39 two-baggers in 338 at-bats in his full-season debut, cut short by a hernia. Excellent bat speed and plate coverage has Buck hammering balls into both gaps, and those doubles should become at least average home-run power as his game matures. His work ethic and makeup are outstanding.
The Bad: Like Barton, Buck's power is more projection than reality at this time. He lacks the speed for center and the arm for right, so he needs to find some more home runs to profile as an everyday corner outfielder. He's struggled at times with the A's patient-at-the-plate philosophy, because he can hit so many pitches.
The Irrelevant: In 2003, Buck became the first Pac-10 freshman in history to hit for the cycle, going 5-for-5 against Southern Utah and cranking out a grand slam in his final at-bat.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A starting corner outfielder.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. The A's see a lot of former Oakland prospect Andre Ethier in Buck, only this one they're going to keep. He'll join Barton at Triple-A.

3. Kurt Suzuki, c
DOB: 10/4/83
Height/Weight: 5-11/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 2nd round, 2004, Cal State Fullerton
What he did in 2006: .285/.392/.415 at AA (444 PA)
The Good: The top catching prospect in the system took big steps forward both offensively and behind the plate in 2006. Good contact skills and a patient approach should allow Suzuki to put up some nifty on-base percentages at the big league level. He did an excellent job in cutting down the running game last year, nailing nearly half of opposing base stealers.
The Bad: Suzuki can still get into some bad habits at the plate, getting pull conscious as opposed to focusing on the going-with-the-pitch approach that has served him so well. He's made great strides in his game calling but still needs to work on handling a pitching staff. His power is limited.
The Irrelevant: Lightly recruited out of a small Hawaii high school, Suzuki initially made the Cal State Fullerton roster as a walk-on.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An everyday big-league catcher who is slightly above-average both offensively and defensively.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – The A's have one year left to deal with Jason Kendall's contract, leaving Suzuki ready to ease into the role in 2008.

4. Javier Herrera, of
DOB: 4/9/85
Height/Weight: 5-10/160
Bats/Throws: R/R
Signed: Venezuela, 2001
What he did in 2006: Did not play – Tommy John surgery.
The Good: This true five-tool player was poised for a breakout campaign before injuring his elbow prior to the season and then missing the entire year recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has above-average hitting skills to go with plus power and speed, as well as good range to both sides in centerfield and an above-average arm.
The Bad: Herrera's conditioning has become an issue, as he put on significant weight while inactive. On the field, he can get out of control at times, both on the basepaths and with an over-aggressive approach at the plate.
The Irrelevant: When batting with the bases loaded in 2005, Herrera went 7-for-14 with three walks, a grand slam and 20 RBIs.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A dynamic power/speed combination in center field.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – After missing all of 2006, Herrera will begin the year in High-A Stockton, and he's gone from somebody on track or ahead of it, to somebody who needs to get moving.