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January 19, 2007

Prospectus Matchups

PECOTA's Rookies

by Jim Baker

It's time, once again, to take a look at the young players with no major league experience who have the highest PECOTA ratings heading into the 2007 season. These aren't necessarily the top prospects in their respective organizations, just the ones whose recent work translates the best for the upcoming action. Some are down deep in their chains and won't be seen this year in spite of what it appears they might do. Others will see significant playing time at the top level while others should but won't, owing to their club's infatuation with veteran players or contractual obligations to lesser lights.

Catcher
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Atlanta Braves (19.7 Projected VORP)
The Braves have two of the top eight projected catchers in baseball heading into the season. Brian McCann, hands down, is the National League leader. There's probably not much sense in bringing Saltalamacchia--who hasn't been to Triple A yet--to the bigs at this point since he'd only get to start about 30 games or so. It's got to be nice to know he's there, though. The runner-up would be Miguel Montero of the Diamondbacks at 17.9, except he did get into six games last year, so he doesn't fit into the strict guidelines that inclusion here demands.

First Base
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds (31.0)
Votto had a nice year in Double-A in 2006, poking 46 doubles and posting a better walk rate than he did at High-A the year before. His projection is three times higher than incumbent first sacker Scott Hatteberg, but one has to admit that Mr. Patience is a pretty cheap date.

Second Base
Eric Patterson, Chicago Cubs (34.9)
Among position players with no big league experience, Patterson has the highest projected VORP heading into 2007. That and $4.50 will not get him a cup of coffee at a Wrigleyville Starbucks. Looking at the Cubs depth chart, he's buried behind Mark DeRosa and The Riot (as read by Sean Connery as rendered by Darrell Hammond). The DeRosa signing remains a curiosity. Should it fail--and PECOTA is thinking it will with De Rosa at 7.2--Patterson will be right there in Iowa, logging his first real Triple-A time.

Third Base
Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals (34.2)
If you can think of a reason why he should spend two minutes in Triple-A you're way ahead of me, and let's not talk about starting his clock too early. Gordon turns 23 in a couple of weeks. By his 23rd birthday, George Brett had well over 1,000 major league at bats. Gordon could have been a passable major leaguer last year and would stand a chance of being the number-two man in the league behind Alex Rodriguez this year if given a full season. Royals fans deserve something for their ticket dollar this year. Give them Gordon.

Shortstop
Brent Lillibridge, late of the Pittsburgh Pirates (29.7)
He was on the Pirates when I started writing this piece a couple of nights ago. He's on the Braves now, thrown in with Mike Gonzalez in exchange for Adam LaRoche. He has every chance of being the key guy in the trade, however. He's got a higher projected VORP than LaRoche. It's not that LaRoche won't do well enough in a Pirates uniform--he will, being a decent ballplayer right in his prime--it's just that you would think a productive corner man would be easier to come by than a young shortstop with the eighth-highest projection in the National League. One would hope the Braves give Lillibridge a shot at the second base job at least. Rookie Martin Prado (7.2) has the pole position there, though. The Pirates should have traded Jack Wilson and kept Lillibridge, although that's easier said than done given Wilson's contract. Failing that, they should have bandied Lillibridge's PECOTA around the league and tried to get more for him.