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January 19, 2007

Future Shock

Detroit Tigers Top Ten Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Excellent Prospects
1. Cameron Maybin, cf
2. Andrew Miller, lhp
Very Good Prospects
3. Gorkys Hernandez, cf
Good Prospects
4. Jair Jurrjens, rhp
Average Prospects
5. Jordan Tata, rhp
6. Ronnie Bourquin, 3b
7. Scott Sizemore, 2b
8. Brent Clevlen, of
9. Eulogio De La Cruz, rhp
10. Ed Campusano, lhp

1. Cameron Maybin, cf
DOB: 4/4/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, North Carolina HS
What he did in 2006: .304/.387/.457 at Low A (445 PA)
The Good: On sheer athleticism and tools, Maybin is the total package, with a brutal home park hurting his nonetheless impressive numbers, as evidenced by road line of .333/.416/.517. Excellent hand-eye coordination and big time raw power that should begin to show up more in games as he improves his pitch recognition. Plus-plus runner who almost effortlessly covers the outfield from gap to gap and has a strong arm.
The Bad: Maybin has trouble with breaking balls, and is prone to chasing pitches, which led to a lofty strikeout total. He needs to improve the accuracy of his throws.
The Irrelevant: In 11 at-bats with the bases loaded, Maybin had three singles, a double, two grand slams and 16 RBI.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A healthy Eric Davis.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High. Maybin will likely start the year in the Florida State League, which means the power surge might have to wait another year.

2. Andrew Miller, lhp
DOB: 5/21/85
Height/Weight: 6-6/195
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, University of North Carolina
What he did in 2006: 0.00 ERA at High A (5-2-1-9); 6.10 ERA at MLB (10.1-8-10-6)
The Good: Considered by many to be the best talent in the 2006 draft. 92-96 mph fastball has touched 98, while height and angular delivery add downward plane and strong deception. Hard slider features depth and tilt, with late, quick break out of the zone.
The Bad: While Miller's stuff is there in every outing, his control is not, and he clearly had problems finding his rhythm while coming out of the bullpen during his big league debut. His changeup needs work.
The Irrelevant: A third-round pick by the Devil Rays in 2003, Miller was the highest unsigned pick from that year's draft.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: An All-Star lefthander.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. Miller will likely be on the Justin Verlander plan, beginning the year in the Florida State League and quickly moving up to Double-A once things warm up in the Eastern League cities.

3. Gorkys Hernandez, cf
DOB: 9/7/87
Height/Weight: 6-0/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Signed: Venezuela, 2005
What he did in 2006: .327/.356/.463 at Rookie level (217 PA)
The Good: Five-tool Venezuelan teenager had impressive stateside debut, showing the holy trinity of bat speed, raw power and the ability to make consistent contact. Plus runner who should develop into an above-average center fielder.
The Bad: Despite his production, Hernandez is still raw in many phases of the game. His swing-at-everything approach will hurt him against more advanced pitching. He needs to improve his jumps and routes in the outfield.
The Irrelevant: In 59 GCL at-bats against lefthanders, Hernandez was the anti-Three True Outcomes hero with one home run, one walk, and three strikeouts.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: Hernandez has star potential, but it's too early to say in what role.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Very High. Hernandez will make his full season debut at Low-A West Michigan, not the easiest place to have a breakthrough season.

4. Jair Jurrjens, rhp
DOB: 1/29/86
Height/Weight: 6-1/160
Bats/Throws: R/R
Signed: Curacao, 2003
What he did in 2006: 2.08 ERA at High A (73.2-53-10-59); 3.36 ERA at AA (67-71-21-53)
The Good: Top righthander in the system has been moved aggressively, holding his own at Double-A before his 21st birthday. Has lived up to his projections by adding velocity on his fastball over the past 24 months, now sitting at 90-93 mph and touching 95. Strike-throwing machine who mixes in his curveball and changeup at any point in the count.
The Bad: Jurrjens can be accused of throwing too many strikes and needs to work more on setting up hitters and using his breaking ball as a chase pitch. Scouts wonder if any of his pitches projects as a big league out pitch.
The Irrelevant: Likes the home cooking: In seven home starts for Double-A Erie, Jurrjens had a 1.76 ERA. In five away starts, his ERA ballooned to 5.88.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. Jurrjens has been a pleasant surprise to the Tigers, but with pitching being a strength in the majors and minors for the organization, there's no need to push him any further. He'll likely begin the season by returning to Double-A.

5. Jordan Tata, rhp
DOB: 9/20/81
Height/Weight: 6-6/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 16th round, 2003, Sam Houston State
What he did in 2006: 3.84 ERA at AAA (122-117-49-86); 6.14 ERA at MLB (14.2-14-7-6)
The Good: Big pitcher was surprise addition to 2006 Opening Day roster and pitched well at Triple-A. Fastball has average velocity but above-average location and movement, with Tata's size giving him a good downward angle on all offerings. Both curve and changeup are at least average big league offerings.
The Bad: Despite his size, Tata is more of a command and finesse pitcher as opposed to a power one. He's aware of his occasional struggles with left-handers and at times can be guilty of addressing the issue by pitching around them.
The Irrelevant: In his two years at Sam Houston State, Tata went 8-15 with a 5.49 ERA in 33 games.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A back-of-the-rotation starter who keeps his team in the game, but needs some help from the offense as well.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low. Tata is in the tough position of being ready for a major league team that has no room for him. To avoid stagnating in the minors, he'll compete for a long relief job in spring training.