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December 19, 2006

Future Shock

Pittsburgh Pirates Top Ten Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Excellent Prospects
1. Andrew McCutchen, cf
Very Good Prospects
2. Brad Lincoln, rhp
3. Brent Lillibridge, ss
Good Prospects
4. Neil Walker, c
Average Prospects
5. Todd Redmond, rhp
6. Brian Bixler, ss
7. Josh Sharpless, rhp
8. Mike Felix, lhp
9. John Van Benschoten, rhp
10. Justin Vaclavik, rhp

1. Andrew McCutchen, cf
DOB: 10/10/86
Height/Weight: 5-11/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Florida HS
What he did in 2006: .291/.356/.446 at Low A (503 PA); .308/.379/.474 at AA (87 PA)
The Good: Dynamic power/speed combination with one of the quickest bats in the minor leagues and strength in wrists to hit 20-30 home runs annually in the big leagues. Has ability to take a walk, and plus-plus speed makes him dangerous on the basepaths as well. Outstanding defender in center field with a far-reaching range from gap to gap.
The Bad: Pitchers have found some success in getting McCutchen to chase outside breaking balls. His arm is not a strength. Can try too hard to hit for power, leading to over swings and strikeouts. Far more power against lefthanders.
The Irrelevant: At tiny Fort Meade High School in central Florida, McCutchen hit .709 as a senior with 16 home runs in 22 games.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An All-Star center fielder.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – The Pirates loved McCutchen's ceiling when they drafted him, but at the same time, they thought he would be a one-step-at-a-time prospect who would require patience. Not even the Pirates expected him to reach Double-A before his 20th birthday, and he'll return there in 2007.

2. Brad Lincoln, rhp
DOB: 5/25/85
Height/Weight: 5-11/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, University of Houston
What he did in 2006: 0.00 ERA at Rookie Level (7.2-6-1-9); 6.75 ERA at Low A (16-25-6-10)
The Good: Advanced pitched prospect pounds the strike zone with 91-95 mph fastball that features hard sinking action. Curveball gives him second plus pitch and changeup features good deception and fade. Excellent athlete who maintains his stuff deep into games and fields his position well.
The Bad: Size turned off many scouts, as the list of sub-six-foot righties taken near the top of the draft is a short one, and the list of successful ones is exponentially shorter than that. Pro debut was hampered by strained oblique muscle.
The Irrelevant: A two-way star at Houston, Lincoln finished among the Conference USA leaders in five of six Triple Crown categories, including all three pitching categories as well as home runs and RBIs.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A good No. 3, and possibly even No. 2 starter.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – The Pirates feel Lincoln can move quickly through the system, likely starting the year in the High-A Carolina League, but seeing some time at Double-A before the year is up.

3. Brent Lillibridge, ss
DOB: 9/18/83
Height/Weight: 5-11/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 4th round, 2005, University of Washington
What he did in 2006: .299/.414/.522 at Low A (333 PA); .313/.426/.423 at High A (252 PA)
The Good: Underrated prospect has no real weaknesses in his game. Very good defensive shortstop with above-average range, hands and arm. Solid hitting skills augmented by very high walk rate, surprising pop and excellent base-stealing abilities.
The Bad: Power he showed at High-A (two HRs in 201 ABs) is closer to reality than Low-A line (11 HRs in 274 ABs), though he projects to hit 10-12 annually in the big leagues. Can get out of control defensively at times, leading to stupid errors.
The Irrelevant: Lillibridge ended the year with an 11-game hitting streak in which he went 18-for-41 (.439) with eight walks and 12 runs scored.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An above-average starting shortstop.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – One of the minor leagues' hidden gems, Lillibridge might be ready for Double-A. His biggest obstacle to the big leagues isn't Jack Wilson, it's Jack Wilson's contract.

4. Neil Walker, c
DOB: 9/10/85
Height/Weight: 6-2/2
15 Bats/Throws: S/R
Draft: 1st round, 2004, Pennsylvania HS
What he did in 2006: .284/.345/.409 at High A (294 PA); .161/.188/.355 at AA (32 PA)
The Good: Big, physical switch-hitting catcher has excellent contact skills and the ability to smack line drives to all fields from both sides of the plate. Plus arm strength. Highly praised for makeup and work ethic.
The Bad: Wrist surgery and a viral infection cost Walker playing time in 2006, and severely hindered his performance when he was in the lineup. Even when healthy, has not shown the power that was initially projected for him. Below average receiver who has problems controlling the running game because of slow release.
The Irrelevant: Walker hit .295 in 2006 with the bases empty, but just .248 with runners on base.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A good hitter who gets good enough behind the plate to at least stay there.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Higher than one would like – Walker's development in 2006 was slowed by injuries, and the defensive concerns have a move to third base, a la Todd Zeile, under consideration. If that takes place, the bat needs to pick up the pace quickly.