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December 15, 2006

Future Shock

Philadelphia Phillies Top Ten Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
2. Kyle Drabek, rhp
Good Prospects
3. Michael Bourn, of
4. Josh Outman, lhp
5. J.A. Happ, lhp
Average Prospects
6. Matt Maloney, lhp
7. Adrian Cardenas, ss
8. D'Arby Myers, cf
9. Scott Mathieson, rhp
10. Greg Golson, cf

1. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
DOB: 3/21/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Signed: Venezuela, 2003
What He Did in 2006: 2.26 ERA at Low A (159.1-103-65-159)
The Good: Long, skinny Venezuelan cruised through the South Atlantic League in his second try, limiting batters to a .182 average. He throws an 89-94 mph fastball with good movement and backs it up with a changeup that is the best in the system now that Cole Hamels has graduated to the big leagues. Curveball made great strides in 2006, improving from a show-me pitch to a usable offering.
The Bad: Carrasco's control of his secondary pitches comes and goes. Scouts love the projection, and he'll need to fill it as he moves up because he is not a pure power pitcher yet, but approaches the game like one.
The Irrelevant: Batters facing Carrasco with the bases loaded in 2006 went 1-for-19.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A No. 2 starter.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – Carrasco's season was officially a breakout by any measurement, and there's room for more improvements in him. He should find some immediate success in the Florida State League, and could hit Double-A by mid-season.

2. Kyle Drabek, rhp
DOB: 12/8/87
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, Texas HS
What He Did in 2006: 7.71 ERA at Rookie Level (23.1-33-11-14)
The Good: Generally considered the top high school righthander in this year's draft, thanks to a mid-90s fastball and a curve that rates right now as a 60-70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Changeup is already a decent offering and should become plus. Excellent athlete who fields his position well, and can hit a little too.
The Bad: Makeup issues abound with teams concerned about his behavior both on and off the field prior to the draft. Drabek's pro debut was as unpredictable as his behavior, with excellent starts being followed by awful ones, and vice-versa.
The Irrelevant: Drabek is the son of former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, who won 155 games during a 13-year career.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A frontline starter.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Very high – Drabek was considered by some to be the top high school player in the draft, but all of the external issues dropped him to the 18th overall selection. This will either be the steal of the draft or a total bust – it's hard to see a lot of scenarios that are in between.

3. Michael Bourn, cf
DOB: 12/27/82
Height/Weight: 5-11/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 4th round, 2003, University of Houston
What He Did in 2006: .274/.350/.365 at AA (361 PA); .283/.368/.428 (174 PA); .125/.222/.125 at MLB (11 PA)
The Good: Prototypical centerfielder/leadoff man who one scout refers to as "Kenny Lofton lite" and has no glaring weaknesses for the type of player he is. Solid hitter who uses the gaps well, as evidenced by nearly 14 triples per 600 at-bats in the minors. Draws walks at a decent clip and has a career stolen base success rate of 85%. Outstanding centerfielder with an arm that as at least average, if not a tick above.
The Bad: Tendency to lose focus on what he does well, leading to high strikeout rates when he tries to drive balls instead of simply making contact. Will likely never put up double-digit home run seasons. Good at many things, great at few.
The Irrelevant: While Bourn hit just five home runs in 2006, two of them were grand slams.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: An everyday centerfielder at the top of the lineup.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Bourn will likely begin the year at Triple-A, pending any moves the busy Phillies still make before spring training. He might break in as a bench outfielder and work his way up from there.

4. Josh Outman, lhp
DOB: 9/14/84
Height/Weight: 6-1/180
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 10th round, 2005, Central Missouri State
What He Did in 2006: 2.95 ERA at Low A (155.1-119-75-161)
The Good: Excellent fastball for a lefthander – sits in the low 90s and touches 94-95 on several occasions every time out. Slider can be an out pitch at times.
The Bad: Outman's command and control are both below average, at times forcing him to pitch solely off his fastball. His changeup is one in name only. Slider has gotten much better since Outman was drafted, but still has a ways to go.
The Irrelevant: Outman's father wrote a book called Over Powering Pitching, which endorses a highly unorthodox delivery style the saves stress on the shoulder and elbow. It's a style Outman used with some success until his college coaches turned him into a real prospect with a more typical delivery.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A power lefty, but maybe one who comes out of the pen.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – Southpaws with Outman's velocity are hard to come by, but there are still a lot of things that need to come together. His development will continue in the Florida State League.