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November 7, 2006

Prospectus Today

The Decline of the Fall

by Joe Sheehan

Here’s a travel tip: if you’re going away for five days, and you wear both contacts and glasses, remember to pack the latter. Especially if you’re going to watch a lot of bad baseball.

As you read what follows, remember the golden rule around here: I Am Not A Scout.

The Arizona Fall League still bills itself as a prospect showcase, a place to watch the game’s top young players in an environment designed to bring out the best in all of them and launch some to stardom. In reality, the AFL has become an afterthought, a place where a fraction of the game’s top prospects, and almost no top pitching prospects, come to spend less than a full season playing against a pool that consists largely of overaged, twice-injured players who are attempting to make 40-man rosters, not 25-man ones.

Consider this: At the conference that brought me to Phoenix for the weekend, Baseball HQ’s Deric McKamey released his top 20 prospects for 2007 and 2008. Of the 40 players on his two lists, I saw three in action in the five games I attended: the Brewers’ Ryan Braun, the Red Sox’ Jacoby Ellsbury and the Pirates’ Neil Walker. A handful of other players from those lists had already been sent home from the league, and I missed seeing one or two others, but the fact is that the 2006 Arizona Fall League has fewer of the game’s top prospects than any AFL in the five years I’ve been attending. Just last year I watched Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Lastings Milledge, Brandon Wood, Adam Loewen and Taylor Tankersley. The best players I saw this year wouldn’t crack that top six, and would have trouble making the top 12. It’s just a poor year.

Troy Tulowitzki was the best player I saw in three days. He’s going to hit for power and a decent average, while playing an average to average-plus shortstop. He’s much slower than I expected, and while that raised a few eyebrows, the consensus seems to be that his range isn’t impacted by his lack of straight-line speed. I’d rather have him than Clint Barmes, or for that matter, Ricky Romero.

The other “classic” AFL-style prospect I watched was Braun. The Brewers’ #1 pick in 2005, Braun has impressed people with his tools and a rapid advance through the Brewers system. He was mentioned in the same breath as Scott Rolen more than once during the weekend. I’m not nearly as enthusiastic about his future, for an assortment of reasons. His peripherals coming through the system are not impressive: 140 strikeouts against 55 walks in 650 at-bats. He has good SB/CS figures (26-for-30 at two levels last year), but he didn’t strike me as fast as much as he’s smart. His defense is rated all over the place, and I’m inclined to see him as a right fielder thanks to a good arm and athleticism.