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October 9, 2006

Completely Random Statistical Trivia

2006 in Review

by Keith Woolner

PECOTA compares each hitter against a database of roughly 20,000 major league batter seasons since World War II. In addition, it also draws upon a database of roughly 10,000 translated minor league seasons (1998-2005) for hitters who spent most of their previous season in the minor leagues. (When minor league comparables are used, they appear in ALL CAPS). PECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a hitters comparability:

1. Production metrics--in particular, batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, groundball:flyball ratio and a modified version of the Bill James speed score.

2. Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances.

3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height and weight.

4. Fielding Position. PECOTA doesnt require that a comparable hitter play the same defensive position; it is a factor that is evaluated along with many others, and assigned a relatively substantial weight. Consideration is also given to the similarity between two positions; for example, a shortstop will be compared to a second baseman before he is compared to a left fielder. (See additional discussion).

For Pitchers:

PECOTA compares each pitcher against a database of roughly 15,000 major league pitcher seasons since World War II, and 10,000 minor league pitcher seasons from 1998-2005. Pitchers are compared only against others of the same age. PECOTA considers three broad categories of attributes in determining comparability:

1. Production metrics such as strikeout rates, walk rates, isolated power and batting average against, and groundball:flyball ratio.

2. Usage metrics such as career length, total batters faced, and percentage of innings pitched in starting/relief.

3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height, and weight. \n

In most cases, the database is large enough to provide a meaningfully large set of appropriate comparables. When it isnt, the program is designed to cheat by expanding its tolerance for dissimilar players until a reasonable sample size is reached. In the case of very old or very young players, there may not be a significant number of pitchers who appeared in the major leagues at all at that age, and so the results of their forecast may be unreliable. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_47 = 'See Percentile Forecast.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_48 = 'The Percentile Forecast is a representation of the players expected performance in the upcoming season at various levels of probability.\nFor example, if a pitchers 75th percentile EqERA forecast is 3.50, this indicates that he has a 75% chance to post an EqERA of 3.50 or higher, and a 25% chance to post an EqERA lower than 3.50. Higher percentiles indicate more favorable outcomes.

\nThe Percentile Forecast is calibrated off two key statistics: EqR/27 (essentially the same as EqR) for hitters, and EqERA for pitchers.\nPECOTA runs a series of regressions within the set of comparable data in order to estimate how changes in peripheral statistics are related to changes in equivalent runs. For example, if it first estimates that Carl Crawford will produce 4.7 EqR/27 next year, it then tries to determine what home run total, walk total, and so on are most likely to be associated with a 4.7 EqR27/season.

\nPECOTA then iterates this result to ensure that the peripheral statistics add up to the right calibrating statistic (EqR/27 or EqERA). It is important to note that the Percentile Forecast is designed to work around the calibrating statistic only. \n

A players forecast is adjusted to the park and league context associated with the team listed at the top of the forecast page. Team dependant stats like Wins, RBIs, and BABIP account for the projected performance level of a players teammates

\nPECOTA forecasts playing time (plate appearances) in addition to a players rate statistics. These forecasts are based on a players previous record of performance, and the comparable player data, and do not incorporate any additional information about managerial decisions.\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_49 = 'Comparable Year represents the season analogous to the current projected year for a comparable player. For example, if Dick Allen is listed as a comparable, and the year listed next to his name is 1974, Allens 1974 is used as a component of the players forecast. It also indicates that Allens Baseline performance entering into the 1974 season was similar to the Baseline performance of the player in question.

PECOTA constructs a 182-day interval on either side of a players birthdate in order to match ages; this method is more precise than the Bill James similarity scores, which use a players age as of July 1. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_50 = 'Caught stealing. CS are not available for the NL from 1876-1950 (except for 1915, 1920-25, and some players for 1916), in the AL from 1901-19 (except 1914-15 and some 1916 players), and are not available at all for the AA, UA, PL, or FL. Surprisingly, they are available for the NA. In catchers fielding, not available prior to 1978.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_51 = 'Delta between actual wins and W1. Positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_52 = 'Delta between actual wins and W2. Positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_53 = 'Delta between actual wins and W3. Positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_54 = 'DEF_EFF, or defensive efficiency, is the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a teams defense, or (1 - BABIP).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_55 = 'The number of hits above or below average for this pitcher, based on his own number of balls in play and his teams rate of hits (minus home runs) per ball in play; (H-HR) - BIP * (team (H-HR)/BIP). Essentially, the Voros McCracken number. For a team, Delta-H should be zero. Positive numbers signify more hits allowed than expected ("bad luck," if you believe pitchers have nothing to do with the outcome of a BIP), negative numbers mean fewer hits than expected ("good luck").'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_56 = 'The number of runs, more or less, that a pitcher allowed, compared to his statistics. The pitchers statistics (such as hits, walks, home runs) are run through a modified version of the equivalent runs formula to get estimated runs. Again, positive is "bad luck," negative is "good luck."'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_57 = 'The number of wins, more or less, that a pitcher won, compared to estimated wins. Estimated wins are derived from the pitchers actual runs allowed and team average run scoring. Here, a positive number is "good luck," negative is "bad luck."'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_58 = 'Defense-adjusted ERA. Not to be confused with Voros McCrackens Defense-Neutral ERA. Based on the PRAA, DERA is intended to be a defense-independent version of the NRA. As with that statistic, 4.50 is average. Note that if DERA is higher than NRA, you can safely assume he pitched in front of an above-average defense.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_59 = 'Diagnostics are a series of metrics designed to estimate the probability of certain types of changes in production and playing time; see the individual entries for additional detail. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_60 = 'Each league has been given a difficulty level, based on the performance of players in that league compared to the same players performance in other seasons. The reference difficulty level was defined by the trend line of the National League from 1947 to 2002, and extended backwards to 1871. The difficulty adjustment is the ratio between the actual difficulty level and the reference level.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_61 = 'Double plays, turned or hit into.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_62 = 'Drop Rate is the percent chance that a player will not receive any major league plate appearances in a given season, based on comparables who disappear from the dataset entirely. Because of the conventions PECOTA uses in selecting comparables, the Drop Rate is always assumed to be zero for the current year, but it is an important consideration in a hitters Five-Year Forecast. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_63 = 'Errors.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_64 = 'Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_65 = 'Expected loss record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_66 = 'Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position players defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_67 = 'The EQA Distribution chart displays a hitters EQA forecast at various levels of probability. It progresses in sequential intervals of five percentage points, ranging from a hitters 95th percentile forecast on the left, to his 5th percentile forecast on the right.

In addition to the probability distribution for a given hitter, which appears in blue, the chart also includes a normal distribution on EQA for all hitters in the league ("Norm"), and a dashed line representing the performance of a replacement level hitter ("Replace") at his position. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_68 = 'EqBB9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqBB9 = 3.0.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_69 = 'EqERA is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqERA = 4.50.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects, and the quality of a pitchers defense. EqERA is conceptually identical to NRA, as used in the DT cards.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_70 = 'EqH9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqH9 = 9.0.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_71 = 'EqHR9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqHR9 = 1.0.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_72 = 'EqK9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqK9 = 6.0.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_73 = 'Equivalent Runs; EQR = 5 * OUT * EQA^2.5. In the fielding charts, the estimated number of EqR he had at the plate while playing this position in the field. In Adjusted Standings, EqR refers to the total number of equivalent runs scored by the team. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_74 = 'Equivalent Runs allowed by a team.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_75 = 'EqR/27, or Equivalent Runs per 27 Outs, is used in PECOTAs internal calculations to calibrate a hitters batting and baserunning outcomes (2B, HR, SB, etc.) with his overall offensive value. The correlation between EqR/27 and EqA is extremely high. Additional information on the derivation of Equivalent Runs can be found in the player cards glossary. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_76 = 'Earned Runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_77 = 'Earned Run Average. Earned runs, divided by innings pitched, multiplied by nine.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_78 = 'In PECOTA projections, the ERA Distribution chart displays a pitchers ERA forecast at various levels of probability. It progresses in sequential intervals of five percentage points, ranging from a pitchers 95th percentile forecast on the left, to his 5th percentile forecast on the right.

In addition to the probability distribution for a given pitcher, which appears in blue, the chart also includes a normal distribution on ERA for all pitchers in the league, as adjusted to the players current park and league context ("Norm"), and a dashed line representing the performance of a replacement level pitcher ("Replace"). '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_79 = 'The Five-Year Forecast is a players weighted mean PECOTA forecast, taken over his next five seasons.

\nThe process for generating a players weighted mean line for a season some number of years into the future (e.g. 2008) is fundamentally identical to generating his forecast for the season immediately upcoming (e.g. 2006). The exception is that some players may have dropped out of the comparables database, in which case their performance cannot be considered. (See also \nJeremy Giambi Effect).

\nIf a players Drop Rate exceeds 50% (that is, more than half of his comparables are no longer playing professional baseball), then PECOTA does not list his weighted mean line for that season. Instead the season is designated with the tagline Out of Baseball.

\nNote that the Five-Year Forecast assumes that a players team context remains the same for all years of the forecast.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_80 = 'A players offensive wins above replacement, as listed on his PECOTA card. Analagous to BRAR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_81 = 'A players defensive wins above replacement, as listed on his PECOTA card, and accounting for the value of his position and the quality of his defense. Analagous to FRAR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_82 = 'Total WARP (Wins Above Replacement) as listed on his PECOTA card, considering both a players offensive and defensive contributions. See WARP1.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_83 = 'As listed in a players PECOTA card, a series of metrics designed to evaluate a players value to his team going forward. See individual entries for detail.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_84 = 'Runners on second base batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_85 = 'Runners on third base batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_86 = 'Marginal Value Above Replacement Player, as introduced in this article. MORP is modelled based on the actual behavior of recent free agent markets, and accounts for non-linearity in the market price of baseball talent (e.g. teams are willing to pay more for one 6-win player than two 3-win players).

\nAs listed in a players PECOTA card, a players MORP includes the major league minimum salary, estimated to be $325,000 for 2006. Further, in a players Five-Year Forecast, we assume salary inflation of 5% per year through 2010 (EXCEPTION: a players Peak MORP does *not* include the minimum salary or the inflation adjustment.)

\nFor 2006, a players MORP is estimated as follows:
\n485000*WARP + 216000*(WARP^2) + 325000

\n\n\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_87 = 'Fielding Runs Above Average.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_88 = 'Fielding Runs Above Replacement. The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make. That makes the value at each position variable over time. In the all-time adjustments, an average catcher is set to 39 runs above replacement per 162 games, first base to 10, second to 29, third to 22, short to 33, center field to 24, left and right to 14.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_89 = 'Games played (pitched, fielded, officiated). Properly speaking, a pitcher should only be credited with a game played on his batting line when he actually appears in the lineup (i.e., not when a DH hits for him.) The BP database is currently inconsistent in this respect.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_90 = 'Ratio of ground balls to fly balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_91 = 'Grounded into double play. Not recorded prior to 1933 in the NL, or 1939 in the AL, and not at all for the other leagues. Unfortunately, without opportunity information, I dont find it very useful for inclusion in EqA. There is also evidence, from Tom Ruane, that players who hit into more DP also tend to advance more runners with outs, enough to offset the DPs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_92 = 'Games started by a pitcher.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_93 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_94 = 'See BABIP.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_95 = 'Hits allowed per 9 innings pitched '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_96 = 'Hits allowed per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_97 = 'Hit by pitch. Not recorded for the NL 1876-1886, the AA in 1882-83, the 1884 UA, and the 1871-75 NA, for either hitters or pitchers. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_98 = 'Holds. A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_99 = 'Historical Stats are the players previous three seasons of performance as they appear in the BP book (with the addition of a players WARP scores).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_100 = 'Home runs, or home runs allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_101 = 'A category 1 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 100 pitches or less.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_102 = 'A category 2 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 101-109 pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_103 = 'A category 3 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 110-121 pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_104 = 'A category 4 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 122-132 pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_105 = 'A category 5 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 133 or more pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_106 = 'Intentional walks. Not recorded for any league prior to 1955.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_107 = 'Improvement Rate is the percent chance that a hitters EqR/27 or a pitchers EqERA will improve *at all* relative the weighted average of his EqR/27 or EqERA in his three previous seasons of performance. A player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the past will have an Improvement Rating of 50%. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_108 = 'Innings officated.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_109 = 'Innings Pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_110 = 'Innings pitched per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_111 = 'Inherited Runs. The number of runners inherited by the reliever who scored while the reliever was in the game. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_112 = 'EqMLVr, or Equivalent rate-based Marginal Lineup Value, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqMLVr of .000.\n\nWhile a major league hitters equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitters equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_113 = 'Isolated Power (ISO) is one of five primary production metrics used in identifying a hitter or pitchers comparables. PECOTA uses a slightly modified version of Isolated Power that assigns the same value to triples as to doubles (extending a double into a triple is generally an indicator of speed, rather than additional power). Thus, the formula for isolated power as follows: ISO = (2B + 3B + HR*3) / AB '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_114 = 'Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_115 = 'Refers to a pitchers losses. In Adjusted Standings, refers to team losses. In VORP and PAP reports, refers to league. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_116 = '"First order losses." Pythagenport expected losses, based on RS and RA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_117 = '"Second order losses." Pythagenport losses, based on EQR and EQRA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_118 = '"Third order losses." Pythagenport losses, based on AEQR and AEQRA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_119 = 'League. A or AL denotes American League. N or NL denotes National League.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_120 = 'The highest number of pitches thrown by a pitcher in one outing.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_121 = 'MLVr is a rate-based version of Marginal Lineup Value (MLV), a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. MLVr is approximately equal to MLV per game. The league average MLVr is zero (0.000). Additional information on MLV and MLVr can be found here.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_122 = 'Players name.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_123 = 'Total number of pitches thrown.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_124 = 'Normalized Runs Allowed. "Normalized runs" have the same win value, against a league average of 4.5 and a pythagorean exponent of 2, as the players actual runs allowed did when measured against his league average.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_125 = 'On-base average. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_126 = 'On-base percentage. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). For pitchers, OBP is on base percentage allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_127 = 'On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_128 = 'Known outs made by the player, defined by AB-H+CS+SH+SF. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_129 = 'Offensive Winning Percentage. A Bill James stat, usually derived from runs created. In EqA terms, it could be calculated as (EQA/refEQA)^5, where refEQA is some reference EQA, such as league average (always .260) or the position-averaged EQA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_130 = 'Plate appearances; AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_131 = 'The percentage of the teams total plate appearances that this player had. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_132 = 'Pitcher Abuse Points. When used in the Pitcher Abuse Point report, PAP refers to PAP^3, which assigns 0 PAP to a start in which the pitcher throws 100 or fewer pitches and (PC-100)^3 PAP for all other starts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_133 = 'An adjustment made to account for the fact that some parks are easier to hit in than average, giving an advantage (in raw statistical terms) to hitters who play for that team. Park factors are always made relative to a league average of 1.00. The park adjustments in the BP are made only on the park factor for runs, averaged over five years; they can be found here. The first column is a one-year park factor, the second column is the five-year average centered on that year (assuming the team did not change or massively renovate their park).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_134 = 'Passed balls; not available for the NA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_135 = 'PERA is a pitchers ERA as estimated from his peripheral statistics (EqH9, EqHR9, EqBB9, EqK9). Because it is not sensitive to the timing of batting events, PERA is less subject to luck than ERA, and is a better predictor of ERA going-forward than ERA itself. Like the rest of a pitchers equivalent stats, his PERA is calibrated to an ideal league with an average PERA of 4.50. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_136 = 'Described more completely in the 2002 Prospectus, the breakdown is a sequence of calculations designed to separate the pitching and fielding components of defense from each other. Certain events (walks, strikeouts, home runs) are considered to be entirely the responsibility of the pitcher. Errors and double plays are assumed to be entirely the domain of the fielders. Other hits and outs are assumed to be 75% fielding, 25% pitching.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_137 = 'A pitchers park-adjusted RA, expressed on a scale like ERA or RA. RA+ -- Park and league normalized Run Average. Similar to ERA+ found in Total Baseball, but based on RA rather than ERA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_138 = 'For Hitters:

The Player Profile is a chart that evaluates a given hitters primary production metrics (batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, and speed score) as a percentile compared to all major league hitters. For example, a player with an isolated power rating of 75% is superior in this category to three-quarters of all major leaguers. The player profile is based on the players three previous seasons of performance, rather than his projection.

For Pitchers:

The Player Profile is a chart that evaluates a pitchers performance in five categories: strikeout rate, walk rate, opponents isolated power (e.g. home run rate), hit rate on balls in play, and groundball-to-flyball ratio. The rates are presented as a percentile compared to all major league pitchers; for example, a player with a strikeout rating of 75% is superior in this category to three-quarters of all major leaguers. The player profile is based on the players three previous seasons of performance, rather than his projection.

Note that the denominator for strikeout rate and walk rate as presented in the Player Profile is not innings pitched, but batters faced. This calculation is somewhat more accurate as pitchers differ in the number of batters they face per inning based on their on base average allowed. Note also that, for pitchers, the percentiles take into account whether the pitcher threw in a starting or relief role, as most pitchers post substantially better numbers in relief.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_139 = 'Positional MLV rate. Runs/game contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would hit in a team of otherwise league-average hitters. Like MLVr, it is a rate stat. The comparable season total is PMLV. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_140 = 'Putouts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_141 = 'Players position.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_142 = 'For PECOTA, a players Position is a consideration in identifying his comparables, as well as in calculating his VORP. The players primary position as used by PECOTA is listed at the top of his forecast page; however, secondary and tertiary positions are also considered based on the relative amount of appearances that a player receives there. The position determination is made primarily based on the position(s) that a player appeared in his most recent season, with lesser consideration given to the position(s) he appeared other recent previous seasons. Both major league and minor league defensive appearances are considered in the determination of a players position, but major league appearances are weighted more heavily. PECOTA considers LF, CF and RF to be separate positions.

\n\nWhen listed numerically on our statistical reports, positions are: 1, pitcher; 2, catcher; 3, first base; 4, second base; 5, third base; 6, shortstop; 7, left field; 8, center field; 9, right field; 10, designated hitter; 11, pinch hitter; 12, pinch runner.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_143 = 'Pitcher-only runs above average. The difference between this and RAA is that RAA is really a total defense statistic, and PRAA tries to isolate the pitching component from the fielding portion. It relies on the pitching/fielding breakdown being run for the team, league, and individual. The individual pitching + defense total is compared to a league average pitcher + team average defense, and the difference is win-adjusted.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_144 = 'Pitcher-only runs above replacement. Similar to PRAA, except that the comparison is made to a replacement level player instead of average. The nominal RA for a replacement pitcher is 6.11 (the same ratio, compared to a 4.50 average, as a .230 EQA is to .260). This assumes that there is a 50/50 split between pitching and fielding. If the pitch/field split is less than that, as it was in the 1800s, the replacement ERA is reduced.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_145 = 'A modified form of Bill James pythagorean formula. Instead of using a fixed exponent (2, 1.83), the "pythagenport" formula derives the exponent from the run environment - the more runs per game, the higher the exponent. The formula for the exponent was X = .45 + 1.5 * log10 ((rs+ra)/g), and then winning percentage is calculated as (rs^x)/(rs^x + ra^x). The formula has been tested for run environments between 4 and 40 runs per game, but breaks down below 4 rpg. The original article is here.

\n\nAfter further review, I (Clay) have come to the conclusion that the so-called Smyth/Patriot method, aka Pythagenpat, is a better fit. In that, X=((rs+ra)/g)^.285, although there is some wiggle room for disagreement in the exponent. Anyway, that equation is simpler, more elegant, and gets the better answer over a wider range of runs scored than Pythagenport, including the mandatory value of 1 at 1 rpg. Go here for more.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_146 = 'Runs scored (for hitters) or allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_147 = 'Actual team runs allowed. Can also stand for Run Average--runs allowed, earned or otherwise, divided by innings pitched, times 9.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_148 = 'Park and league normalized Run Average. Similar to ERA+ found in Total Baseball, but based on RA rather than ERA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_149 = 'For Pitchers:

Runs above average. At its simplest, this would be the league runs per inning, times individual innings, minus individual runs allowed. However, we have gone one step beyond that, because being 50 runs above average in 1930, in the Baker Bowl, doesnt have the same win impact as being +50 in the 1968 Astrodome. The league runs per inning need to be adjusted for park and team hitting (and difficulty, for the alltime RAA), and then you can multiply by individual innings and subtract individual runs. Finally, that quantity needs to be win-adjusted. See win-adjustment.

For Fielders:

Runs above average at this position, similar to Palmers Fielding Runs as far as interpretation is concerned.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_150 = 'Fielding runs above replacement. A fielding statistic, where a replacement player is meant to be approximately equal to the lowest-ranking player at that position, fielding wise, in the majors. Average players at different positions have different FRAR values, which depend on the defensive value of the position; an average shortstop has more FRAR than an average left fielder. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_151 = 'See FRAR, FRAR2. FRAR2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_152 = 'A way to look at the fielders rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_153 = 'See Rate. Rate2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_154 = 'Runs Batted In. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_155 = 'Raw equivalent average, the first step towards building the EqA. In its fullest form, REQA = (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REQA gets converted into unadjusted equivalent runs, UEQR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_156 = 'Runs Prevented. The extra number of runs an average pitcher would have allowed in the same number of innings pitched (adjusted for park and league). RP greater than zero indicates that the pitcher allowed fewer runs than an average pitcher (i.e. hes better than average). Negative RP indicates the pitcher allowed more runs than an average pitcher (i.e. hes worse then average) '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_157 = 'Replacement level MLV rate. Runs/game contributed by a batter beyond what a replacement level player at the same position would hit in a team of otherwise league-average hitters. The comparable season total is RPMLV. It differs from VORPr and VORP only in that it is solely based on batting performance whereas VORP includes basestealing. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_158 = 'EqSLG, or Equivalent Slugging Percentage, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqSLG of .440.\n\nWhile a major league hitters equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitters equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_159 = 'Actual runs scored by a team.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_160 = 'Stolen bases. Not recorded for any league between 1876 and 1885. On the catchers fielding charts, not available prior to 1978.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_161 = 'Sacrifice flies. The statistical category of "sacrifice flies" did not exist prior to 1954; the concept had been around, on and off, since 1908, but had been always been part of the "SH" category. See SH. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_162 = 'Sacrifice hits. Not recorded prior to 1894. From 1894-1907, they were essentially the same as the modern rule - a bunt which advanced a baserunner. From 1908-25, they included what we would now call a sacrifice fly (sacrifices increase 25% between 1907 and 1908 as a result). From 1926-30, they included any fly ball on which a runner advanced, not just ones where the runner scored (another 25% increase in 1926). From 1931-38, sacrifice flies were eliminated completely (causing a 45% drop in sacrifices, and a 4-point decline in batting averages); that brought us back to the modern definition of sacrifice hit. In 1939 they re-introduced the run-scoring sac fly (returning to the 1908-25 rules), but eliminated it again in 1940. When sacrifice flies appeared again in 1954, they had their own category, so the rule for what we would call a sacrifice hit has not changed since 1940.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_163 = 'Shutouts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_164 = 'Similarity Index is a composite of the similarity scores of all of a players comparables. Similarity index is a gauge of the players historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual. For players with a very low similarity index, PECOTA expands its tolerance for dissimilar comparables until a meaningful sample size is established (see Comparable Players). '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_165 = 'Similarity Score is a relative measure of a players comparability. Its scale is very different from the Bill James similarity scores; a score of 100 is assigned to a perfect comparable, while a score of 0 represents a player who is meaningfully similar. Players can and frequently do receive negative similarity scores, and they are dropped from the analysis. A score above 50 indicates that a player is substantially comparable, and scores in excess of 70 are very unusual. The comparable player observations are weighted based on their similarity score in constructing a forecast. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_166 = 'Slugging percentage (hitters) or slugging percentage allowed (pitchers). Total bases divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_167 = 'Support-Neutral Losses. the pitchers expected number of losses assuming he had league-average support.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_168 = 'SNW / (SNW+SNL)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_169 = 'Support Neutral Value Added - wins above average added by the pitchers performance.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_170 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added - like SNVA, but also adjusted for the MLVr of each batter the pitcher faced.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_171 = 'Support-Neutral Wins. the pitchers expected number of wins assuming he had league-average support.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_172 = 'Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement-level. the number of SNWs a pitcher has above what a .425 pitcher would get in the same number of (Support-Neutral) decisions.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_173 = 'Strikeouts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_174 = 'Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_175 = 'Speed Score (SPD) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a hitters comparables. It is based in principle on the Bill James speed score and includes five components: Stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.

\nBeginning in 2006, BP has developed a proprietary version of Speed Score that takes better advantage of play-by-play data and ensures that equal weight is given to the five components. In the BP formulation of Speed Score, an average rating is exactly 5.0. The highest and lowest possible scores are 10.0 and 0.0, respectively, but in practice most players fall within the boundary between 7.0 (very fast) and 3.0 (very slow). '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_176 = 'The "standard league" is a mythical construction, in which all statistics have been adjusted for easy comparison. Its primary features are that runs scored is 4.5 runs per game; equivalent average is .260; and the pythagorean exponent is exactly 2.00.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_177 = 'In PECOTA, stolen base attempts as a percentage of times on first base. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_178 = 'A rough indicator of the pitchers overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0} '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_179 = 'Pitcher abuse points divided by number of pitches thrown, or PAP/NP.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_180 = 'Strikeout Rate (K) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a players comparables. It is defined as SO/PA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_181 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for strikes.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_182 = 'Saves.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_183 = 'Total batters faced. Not recorded for the NL 1876-1886, the AA of 1882-83, the 1884 UA, or the NA of 1871-75.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_184 = 'Team.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_185 = 'In Davenport Translations, team and league for which he played. At this time, for players who played for more than one team in a season, the order shown is not necessarily correct. The leagues are as follows: N signifies the National Association of 1871-1875 and the National League of 1876-present. A is for both the American Association (1882-1891, a major league, separate from the later minor league of the same name) and the 1901-present American League. U is the Union Association of 1884, P the Players League of 1890, and F the Federal League of 1914-15.

Otherwise (as in the PECOTA cards), Team is the three letter abbreviation for the team in question.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_186 = 'An adjustment made for hitters, to account for not having to face their own pitchers. Using pitching stats, (league R * pf - team R), divided by (league IP - team IP), divided by park-adjusted league runs per inning.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_187 = 'An adjustment made for pitchers, to account for not having to face their own teams batters. Using batting stats, (league runs * pf - team runs), divided by (league PA - team PA), divided by league runs per plate appearance * pf.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_188 = 'Team.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_189 = 'Hits plus doubles plus two times triples plus three times home runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_190 = 'Trend identifies players who demonstrate dramatic changes from their Baseline during their comparable year.

For Hitters:

Hitters who improve their EqR/PA by at least 20% are identified by a green, upward-pointing arrow and contribute to a hitters Breakout score; hitters whose EqR/PA decreases by at least 20% are identified by a red, downward-pointing arrow and contribute to a hitters Collapse score.

For Pitchers:

Pitchers who improve their EqERA by at least 20% are identified by a green, upward-pointing arrow and contribute to a pitchers Breakout score; pitchers whose EqERA increases by at least 25% are identified by a red, downward-pointing arrow and contribute to a pitchers Collapse score. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_191 = 'Unadjusted Equivalent Runs; (2 * REQA/LgREQA - 1) * PA * LgR/LgPA. Analogous to runs created.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_192 = 'The Ugueto Effect is name given to the phenomenon in which very poor players are associated with very high PECOTA Breakout scores. It is far easier for a player like Luis Ugueto, who would produce about 40 EQR over a full season, to improve upon that figure by 20% than it is for Alex Rodriguez; as a result, his Breakout score is likely to be higher. This does not mean that Ugueto is a player youd want anywhere near your roster. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_193 = 'Umpires name.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_194 = 'Unintentional Walk Rate (BB) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a players comparables. It is defined as (BB-IBB)/PA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_195 = 'Runners On Base (typically the number of runners on base during a batters plate appearances)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_196 = 'Others Batted In -- runs batted in, except for the batter driving himself in via a home run. Equal to RBI-HR'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_197 = 'Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a players defense.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_198 = 'VORP rate. Runs/game contributed beyond what a replacement level player would produce. Also a rate stat. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_199 = 'Refers to a pitchers wins. In Adjusted Standings, refers to team wins. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_200 = '"First order wins." Pythagenport expected wins, based on RS and RA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_201 = '"Second order wins." Pythagenport wins, based on EQR and EQRA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_202 = '"Third order wins." Pythagenport wins, based on AEQR and AEQRA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_203 = 'Walks allowed per 9 innings pitched '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_204 = 'Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season.

\nWARP is also listed on a players PECOTA card. The PECOTA WARP listing is designed to correspond to WARP-1, not WARP-2 or WARP-3.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_205 = 'Wins Above Replacement Player, with difficulty added into the mix.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_206 = 'WARP-2, expanded to 162 games to compensate for shortened seasons. Initially, I was just going to use (162/season length) as the multiplier, but this seemed to overexpand the very short seasons of the 19th century. I settled on using (162/scheduled games) ** (2/3). So Ross Barnes 7.4 wins in 1873, a 55 game season, only gets extended to 15.2 WARP, instead of a straight-line adjustment of 21.8.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_207 = 'The Weighted Mean forecast incorporates all of the players potential outcomes into a single average, weighted baed on projected playing time. In almost all cases, poor performances are associated with a reduced number of plate appearances. For that reason, they dont hurt a players team quite as much as good performances help it; the weighting is designed to compensate for this effect (see also Jeremy Giambi Effect).

\nEXCEPTION: a players projected PLAYING TIME (and therefore, his counting statistics that are incumbent on his playing time) is taken based on the median of his comparables performance, rather than the weighted mean. This is designed to mitigate the influence of catastrophic injuries, which are better represented by Attrition Rate.

\nThis exception does NOT affect a players WARP and VORP forecast, which are calculated per the weighted mean method, treating players who dropped out of the database as having zero WARP/VORP.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_208 = 'A correction made to raw runs when converting them to a standard league to preserve their win value. Define an average team from season games played, league runs per game (9 innings or 27 outs, depending on whether you are using pitcher or batter data), and appropriate adjustments (park, team hitting/pitching, difficulty). "Team" is the effect of replacing one player on the average team with the player we are analyzing. Calculate the pythagorean exponent from (average + team) / games as your RPG entry; calculate winning percentage using the modified pythagorean formula. Now, go backwards, solve for "team" runs, given the winning percentage, an average team that scores 4.5 per game, and a pythagorean exponent of 2.00.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_209 = 'See WARP-1.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_210 = 'Wild pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_211 = 'Adjusted Innings Pitched; used for the PRAA and PRAR statistics. There are two separate adjustments:

1) Decisions. Innings are redistributed among the members of the team to favor those who took part in more decisions (wins, losses, and saves) than their innings alone would lead you to expect. The main incentive was to do a better job recognizing the value of closers than a simple runs above average approach would permit. XIPA for the team, after this adjustment, will equal team innings. First, adjust the wins and saves; let X = (team wins) / (team wins + saves). Multiply that by individual (wins + saves) to get an adjusted win total. Add losses. Multiply by team innings divided by team wins and losses.

2) Pitcher/fielder share. When I do the pitch/field breakdown for individuals, one of the stats that gets separated is innings. If an individual pitcher has more pitcher-specific innings than an average pitcher with the same total innings would have, than the difference is added to his XIPA. If a pitcher has fewer than average, the difference is subtracted. This creates a deliberate bias in favor of pitchers who are more independent of their fielders (the strikeout pitchers, basically), and against those who are highly dependent on their defenses (the Tommy John types).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_212 = 'Reached On Error: when a batter reaches first base as a direct result of a fielding error.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_213 = 'Batters Left On Base'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_214 = 'Lefty One Out GuY - a left handed reliever specializing in getting one out, often in game critical situations'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_215 = 'Runs Above Replacement, Position-adjusted. A statistic that compares a hitters Equivalent Run total to that of a replacement-level player who makes the same number of outs and plays the same position. A "replacement level" player is one who has .736 times as many EqR as the average for the position; that corresponds to a .351 winning percentage. Used when fielding data is unavailable.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_216 = 'Batting Runs Above Average. The number of runs better than a hitter with a .260 EQA (i.e., an average hitter) and the same number of outs; EQR - 5 * OUT * .260^2.5.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_217 = 'Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitchers average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitchers defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_218 = 'EqOBP, or Equivalent On Base Percentage, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqOBP of .340.\n\nWhile a major league hitters equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitters equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_219 = 'EqBA, or Equivalent Batting Average, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqBA of .270.\n\nWhile a major league hitters equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitters equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_220 = 'like SNVA, but comparing to replacement level, rather than average. Replacement level is now being computed the same way in SNVA and in VORP (using the formulas from Keith Woolners BP 2002 article).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_221 = 'like SNLVA, but comparing to replacement level, rather than average. Replacement level is now being computed the same way in SNVA and in VORP (using the formulas from Keith Woolners BP 2002 article).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_222 = 'Standard deviation of per-start SNVA for each pitcher. This was previously shown as the variance, and was used to compute the "flakiest" pitchers. Standard deviation is just the square root of the variance, so these are equivalent.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_223 = 'Luck, as measured by the number of extra wins, and short losses the pitcher actually got, versus his expected record. LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_224 = 'Teams expected wins in the games started by the pitcher. This will always add (with TmL) up to the pitchers total games started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_225 = 'Teams expected losses in the games started by the pitcher. This will always add (with TmW) up to the pitchers total games started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_226 = 'Runs Above Position: The number of Equivalent Runs this player produced, above what an average player at the same postion would have produced in the same number of outs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_227 = 'Games in relief'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_228 = 'Inherited baserunners. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_229 = 'Inherited runners who scored. A raw count of the number of runners who scored. This differs from INR, which subtracts INS from the expected number of inherited runners that would have scored given league average performance in the given situations.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_230 = 'Bequeathed baserunners.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_231 = 'Bequeathed runners who scored.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_232 = 'Bequeathed runs prevented from scoring. Measures how many more or fewer of the bequeathed baserunners subsequent relievers allowed to score than would be expected from league average performance in those situations. I.e., a positive figure means the following relievers kept more of the bequeathed runners from scoring than expected, negative means more of the runners scored than expected.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_233 = 'Adjusted Pitching Runs (a la Thorn & Palmer in "Total Baseball").'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_234 = 'Adjusted Runs Prevented from scoring.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_235 = 'How much a pitcher is underrated by Adjusted Pitching Runs (DIFF = ARP - APR).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_236 = 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_237 = 'Home runs allowed per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_238 = 'Expected wins added over an average pitcher. WX uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games. Win expectancy looks at the inning, score, and runners on base when the reliever entered the game, and determines the probability of the team winning the game from that point with an average pitcher. Then it looks at how the reliever actually did, and how that changes the probability of winning. The difference between how the reliever improved the chances of winning and how an average pitcher would is his WX.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_239 = 'Expected wins added over an average pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters faced. WXL factors in the MLVr of the actual batters faced by the relievers. Then, like WX, WXL uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_240 = 'Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher. WXR uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games, similar to WX. However, instead of comparing the pitchers performance to an average pitcher, he is compared to a replacement level pitcher to determine WXR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_241 = 'Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters. WXRL combines the individual adjustments for replacement level (WXR) and quality of the opposing lineup (WXL) to the basic WX calculation.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_242 = 'The number of additional runs charged to the starting pitcher that his bullpen allowed to score after he left the game, compared to an average bullpen. Negative Pen Support means the bullpen prevented more runs from scoring than an average pen (i.e. the pitchers ERA looks better than it should because of good bullpen support).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_243 = 'The probability of winning the current game, given some\ninformation about how many runs each team has scored to a certain point in the game, how many outs there are, whether there are runners on base, and the strength of each team. Keith Woolner outlined a method for computing Win Expectancy given all of these parameters in BP 2005.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_244 = 'Number of runs a batter has driven in per runner on base during a batters plate appearances. Defined as total baserunners/RBI (NB: Runners on base are other than the batter himself--RBIs resulting from a batter driving himself in on home runs are removed).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_245 = 'Marginal Lineup Value, a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. Additional information on MLV can be found here.\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_246 = 'Positional MLV. Runs contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would produce in a team of otherwise league-average hitters.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_247 = 'Runs Above Replacement. RAR compares a hitters Equivalent Run total to that of a replacement level player who makes the same number of outs and plays the same position. A replacement level player is one who has .736 times as many EqR as the average for that position; that corresponds to a .351 winning percentage.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_248 = 'Indication of who is on base, used to calculate Win Expectancy. An unoccupied base is designated with a 0, and an occupied base is designated with the number of the base (1=first base, 2=second base, 3= third base). All bases are represented by a three-digit string. For example, 000=bases empty, while 103=runners on first and third.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_249 = 'Refers to the Baserunner State combined with the number of\nouts in the current half inning, used to calculate Win Expectancy. For example, 2-103 indicates two outs with runners on first and third.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_250 = 'Runs Per Inning. RPI is the average number of runs scored per inning by a given team or lineup, used to calculate Win Expectancy. RPI is a measure of the strength of a teams offense (or conversely, the strength of the opposing teams pitching staff).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_251 = 'Runner on first. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times a batter came to the plate with a runner at first base.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_252 = 'Runner on second. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times the batter came to the plate with a runner at second base.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_253 = 'Runner on third. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times the batter came to the plate with a runner at third base.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_254 = 'Inherited runs prevented from scoring. The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the relievers appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_255 = 'Hits, or hits allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_256 = 'The maximum amount of Pitcher Abuse Points a pitcher has accumulated in a single start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_257 = 'Teams expected winning percentage in the games started by the pitcher.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_258 = 'Strikeout to walk ratio: strikeouts divided by walks. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_259 = 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in the batter reaching base on an error.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_260 = 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in a strikeout.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_261 = 'Percentage of stolen base attempts that are successful. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_262 = 'The total amount of baserunners that have been on base for a batters plate appearances.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_263 = 'The Pitchers Quality of Batters Faced statistical report shows how good the hitters a pitcher has faced are. A pitcher who has faced batters with an average OPS of .750, for example, has had an easier time than a pitcher facing batters with an average OPS of .800.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_264 = '"Fair" runs against average. RA with inherited/bequeathed runners included.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_265 = 'The percent of the time the double play opportunities (DP_OPPS) were converted into double plays (DP)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_266 = 'The percentage of the time that a stolen base attempt was successful.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_267 = 'Walk rate. Percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk. '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_268 = 'The number of runs a player has batted in other than himself (BATTED_IN=RBI-HR).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_269 = 'Converts the players batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody. The major characteristics of the translation are: 1) that the translated EQA should equal the original, all-time adjusted EQA (within some margin for error); 2) that all seasons are expanded to a 162 game schedule; 3) that the statistics are adjusted to a season where an average hitter would have, per 650 PA: 589 AB, 153 H, 31 DB, 3 TP, 19 HR, 56 BB, 5 HBP, 113 SO, 10 SB, 5 CS, 79 R and 75 RBI. His rates would be a .260 batting average, .330 onbase average, .420 slugging average, and a .260 EQA with 76 EQR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_270 = 'Converts all pitching statistics into a standard context. Pitchers are translated to a league where the top five pitchers (in innings) pitch an average of 275 innings. An average pitcher will have rates, per nine innings, of 9.00 hits, 1.00 home run, 3.00 walks, 6.00 strikeouts, and 4.50 earned runs. In the standard context, a replacement level pitcher has a 6.00; the translation is set up to conserve runs above replacement (alltime PRAR). Wins and losses are set using the pythagorean formula with average run support, with the pitchers actual deviation from his real expected win percentage added back in.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_271 = 'Inherited runs prevented from scoring. The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the relievers appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_272 = 'Bequeathed baserunners.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_273 = 'Bequeathed baserunners who scored.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_274 = 'Bequeathed runs prevented from scoring. Measures how many more or fewer of the bequeathed baserunners subsequent relievers allowed to score than would be expected from league average performance in those situations. I.e., a positive figure means the following relievers kept more of the bequeathed runners from scoring than expected, negative means more of the runners scored than expected.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_275 = '"Fair" runs against average. RA with inherited/bequeathed runners included.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_276 = 'The Stars & Scrubs Chart represents the probability that a player will demonstrate a given level of performance over the course of his next five seasons.

\nIn particular, for hitters:

\nSuperstar performance represents an EqA of .300 or better.
\nStar performance represents an EqA of between .280 and .300
\nRegular performance represents an EqA of between .250 and .280
\nFringe performance represents an EqA of between .230 and .250
\nScrub performance represents an EqA worse than .230
\nDrop represents the players Drop Rate - the probability that the player will drop out of the league entirely.

\n\nNote that these thresholds ARE adjusted for a players defensive position. A shortstop would need an EqA of about .290 to be considered a Star performer, while a right fielder would need an EqA of .310.

\n\nSimilarly, for pitchers:

\n\nSuperstar performance represents an EqERA of 3.25 or better.
\nStar performance represents an EqERA of between 3.25 and 4.00
\nRegular performance represents an EqERA of between 4.00 and 5.00
\nFringe performance represents an EqERA of between 5.00 and 5.50
\nScrub performance represents an EqERA worse than 5.50
\nDrop represents Drop Rate - the probability that the player will drop out of the league entirely.

\n\nA small adjustment is made for starters versus relief pitchers, analagous to the positional adjustment described above.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_277 = 'Abbreviation for Speed Score as used in PECOTA cards.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_278 = 'Career Path Analysis is the name for a chart on a players PECOTA card. The solid, curved lines represent a players VORP at his 90th, 75th, 60th, 50th (Median), 40th, 25th and 10th percentile levels of performance over the course of his next five seasons. All of these lines appear in BLUE, except for a players Median/50th percentile forecast, which appears in RED.

\nThe dashed YELLOW line represents a players Weighted Mean VORP forecast. Because of the Jeremy Giambi Effect (the correlation between quality of performance and playing time), the Weighted Mean forecast line will usually be somewhat more favorable than the Median forecast line, particularly for players with highly volatile forecasts (lots of upside).

\nNote that players who drop out of a players comparables set are represented on the Career Path Anaylsis chart as having a VORP of 0.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_279 = 'The Jeremy Giambi Effect is a name given to the correlation between playing time and quality of performance. The Jeremy Giambi Effect has important implications for understanding a players PECOTA forecast.

\nFollowing are Giambis plate appearances and OPS for each year of his major league career

\nYear PA OPS
\n1998 70 .739
\n1999 336 .741
\n2000 302 .761
\n2001 443 .841
\n2002 397 .919
\n2003 156 .696

\nNote that the correlation between Giambis PA and OPS is very strong (r=.72). He played more often when he played more effectively, and less so when he played less effectively. Eventually, his performance became so poor that he could no longer secure any major league playing time at all.

\nBecause of the Jeremy Giambi Effect, players that perform better will make more contribution to his weighted mean forecast. Therefore, a players weighted mean forecast may lead to a falsely optimistic portrait of his future, particularly for players with high drop and attrition rates.

\nWe suggest paying the most attention to the Stars & Scrubs Chart, Career Path Anaylsis, and Five-Year WARP Forecast. All of these have a more sophisticated technique to account for the Jeremy Giambi Effect, by considering dropped comparables, but assigning them a value of zero.\n\n\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_280 = 'Defense, as listed in a players PECOTA card, provides the players number of defensive games played, primary position, and fielding runs above average (FRAA) with a given team in a given season.

\nAlthough only a players primary defensive position is listed on a players PECOTA card, the system considers his performance at secondary positions as well in making its forecasts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_281 = 'Out of Baseball is the tag assigned to a players five-year forecast when his Drop Rate in that season exceeds 50%. That is, we do not list a players forecast line when it is more likely than not that he will not be playing professional baseball.

\nEven if a player receives the dreaded Out of Baseball tag, he can still accumulate residual WARP and VORP value based on those comparables that do remain in the league, as accounted for in his Valuation metrics.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_282 = 'A series of metrics designed to evaluate a players value over a consecutive five year period, as forecast by PECOTA.

\nFor a player aged 24 or older, his PEAK score is simply the sum of his value in a particular category over the next five seasons.

\nPlayers aged 23 or younger may receive an additional adjustement based on their age. This is determined by extrapolating a generic aging curve to the last two seasons of the players Five-Year PECOTA Forecast, up until a player is aged 28. Prince Fielder, for example, has projected WARP scores as follows

\nAge 22: 2.9
\nAge 23: 3.3
\nAge 24: 3.6
\nAge 25: 3.7
\nAge 26: 3.8
\nAge 27: 3.8 (Extrapolated)
\nAge 28: 3.7 (Extrapolated)

\n\nFielders PEAK score is determined by summing the highest projected score over a consecutive five-year period. In this case, that is the period from Age 24 to Age 28, wherein Fielders total projected WARP is 18.6.

\nNote that, while young pitchers are also eligible to receive an age adjustment, their aging curves are generally less favorable than those of position players.\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_283 = 'UPSIDE is determined by evaluating the performance of a players PECOTA comparables. If a comparable player turned in a performance better than league average, then twice that players BRAA or PRAA is counted toward his UPSIDE. If the player was worse than league average, or he dropped out of the databse, the performance is counted as zero.

\nFor example, say that a player has seven comparables, who perform as follows:

\nPlayer BRAA
\nBashful +30
\nDoc -10
\nDopey -15
\nGrumpy +5
\nHappy +40
\nSleepy 0 (Out of Baseball)
\nSneezy -5
\nAVERAGE 6.4

\nThese comparables contribution to the players UPSIDE would then be as follows:

\nBashful +60
\nDoc 0
\nDopey 0
\nGrumpy +10
\nHappy +80
\nSleepy 0 (Out of Baseball)
\nSneezy 0
\nAVERAGE 21.4

\nUPSIDE is designed to evaluate developing players to which a team has relatively little financial commitment. UPSIDE rewards players who have some chance of becoming very good major leaguers, without punishing them for other outcomes in which they do not become very good players, but their team wont suffer from their performance because it can keep them them on the bench or in the minor leagues. It may be less appopriate for evaluating established players, especially those to which a team has a long-term financial commitment.

\nUnlike regular BRAA and PRAA, UPSIDE scores are adjusted for a players defensive position, and for whether a pitcher throws in a starting or relief role.

\n(Note: the preceding Seven Dwarves example is a slight oversimplifaction of the process that PECOTA uses to assess the performance of comparables.)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_284 = 'Walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_285 = 'A players weighted mean Value Above Replacement Player, as determined in his Five-Year Forecast.

\nNote that, in the Valuation section of a pitchers PECOTA card, his VORP forecast backs out any favorable or unfavorable effects of his teams defense, and assumes that he pitches in front of a neutral defense.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_286 = 'The Five-Year WARP forecast measures a players projected wins above replacement. For position players, this value is subdivided into batting wins, and defensive wins.

\nAs time progresses, certain of the players comparables will drop from the dataset entirely. In some cases, this is the result of a comparable player not yet having appeared in the comparable year in question. These players are dropped from the average for the season in question without any prejudicial effect. In other cases, a hitter has completed his comparable year, but did not record any plate appearances as a result of injury, retirement, demotion, and so on. These players are retained in the wins above replacement calculation, but are assigned a value of zero. (These comparables also contribute to a players Drop Rate). Because of this convenient method for handling comparables who disappear from the dataset, the Five-Year Value forecast is the best way to evaluate a players value going forward.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_287 = 'The Five-Year Performance forecast measures a hitters forecast EqA or a pitchers EqERA at various percentiles (90th, 75th, 60th, 50th, 40th, 25th and 10th) over the course of the next five seasons. The percentile forecasts are indicated by solid lines, usually in BLUE, except for his median/50th percentile forecast which is indicated in RED. Also listed is the players weighted mean forecast in that category, indicated with a dashed YELLOW line.

\nUnlike the Five-Year WARP forecast, the Performance forecast has no convenient way to adjust for dropped comparables, and so it simply ignores them. For this reason, the Performance forecast may be misleading for players whose comparables have a high attrition rate. (See also Jeremy Giambi Effect). '; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_288 = 'The Five-Year Attrition forecast measures a players Attrition Rate and Drop Rate over the forthcoming five seasons. These forecasts consider only players who have completed the comparable year in question.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_289 = 'Percentage of runners on first batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_290 = 'Percentage of runners on second base batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_291 = 'Percentage of runners on third base batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_292 = 'Percentage of all runners on base batted in (Others Batted In Percentage)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_293 = 'Times On Base -- times reaching base by hit, walk, or hit by pitch. Reaching by error is sometimes included, depending on the context.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_294 = 'Fielders Choice'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_295 = 'Number of times Interference was called'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_296 = 'Situations where a Double Play was possible -- a plate appearance with a runner on first base and less than two outs'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_297 = 'Unearned Run Average. Equal to (Unearned Runs)/(Innings Pitched)*9'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_298 = 'Hits per inning pitched'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_299 = 'Walks per inning pitched'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_300 = 'Strikeouts per inning pitched'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_301 = 'Home Runs per Inning Pitched'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_302 = 'Baserunners per 9 innings. BR9 = (H+BB+HBP)/IP*9'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_303 = 'Unintentional base on balls rate (UBB per plate appearance).'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_304 = 'Intentional base on balls rate (per plate appearance)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_305 = 'Hit Rate -- hits per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_306 = 'Singles rate -- Singles per plate appearance.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_307 = 'Doubles Rate -- doubles per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_308 = 'Triples Rate -- triples per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_309 = 'Home Run Rate -- homers per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_310 = 'Hit By Pitch Rate -- HBP per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_311 = 'Sacrifice Fly Rate -- Sac flies per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_312 = 'Sacrifice Hit Rate -- Sacrifices per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_313 = 'Reached On Error Rate -- reaching first on error per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_314 = 'Strikeout Rate -- Strikeouts per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_315 = 'Out Rate -- Batting outs per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_316 = 'Non-Strikeout Out Rate -- batting outs (other than by strikeout, i.e. outs on balls in play) per plate appearance.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_317 = 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as popups (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_318 = 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as line drives (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_319 = 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as ground balls (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_320 = 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as fly balls (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_321 = 'Runs scored Rate -- Runs scored (typically by a player) per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_322 = 'RBI Rate -- RBI per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_323 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) per game started'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_324 = 'Maximum Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) in a single start'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_325 = 'Total Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) accumulated'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_326 = 'Average number of pitches per start'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_327 = 'Maximum number of pitches in a start'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_328 = 'Total number of pitches thrown'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_329 = 'Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted.'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_330 = 'Primary position played (position where the most PA were accumulated)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_331 = 'Number of plate appearances that started (led off) an inning'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_332 = 'Triple plays'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_333 = 'Number of plate appearances that ended a game'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_334 = 'Total Base Percentage -- total bases per plate appearance (as opposed to slugging average, SLG, which is total bases per at-bat)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_335 = 'At Bat Rate -- at bats per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_336 = 'Batting Park Factor'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_337 = 'Percentage of total team plate appearances accumulated by one player. PA% = (Players PA) / (Teams PA)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_338 = 'Equivalent Outs'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_339 = 'Opponents Quality, Batting Average -- the aggregate batting average of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_340 = 'Opponents Quality, On-Base Percentage -- the aggregate onbase percentage of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_341 = 'Opponents Quality, Slugging Average -- the aggregate slugging average of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_342 = 'Runs charged to a pitcher before he is removed from the game (i.e. excluding runners on base when he exited who may have been allowed to score by a subsequent pitcher)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_343 = 'Inherited runners who scored during a pitchers appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_344 = 'Bequeathed runners the pitcher is responsible for (excluding runners still on base put there by a preceding pitcher)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_345 = 'Relief Percentage -- positive relief decisions (saves and holds) divided by total relief decisions (saves, holds, blown saves)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_346 = 'Whole innings -- complete innings started and finished by the pitcher (no fractional innings are counted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_347 = 'Innings completed by a pitcher'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_348 = 'Fair Run Average in relief appearances'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_349 = 'Pitching Park Factor'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_350 = 'Three True Outcomes -- home runs, walks, and strikeouts.\n\nOriginally conceived of as an offbeat tribute to Rob Deer (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=724), the TTO celebrates batters who dont put the ball into play.\n\nIronically, TTO gained some credence beyond its novelty value with the development of Voros McCrackens DIPS theory that states that pitchers have little control over the otucomes of batted balls in play, and thus should be evaluated primarily on the basis of the strikeouts, walks, and home runs they allow.\n\nBP has awarded the TTO crown annually for several years. e.g. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4721'; xxxpxxxxx1160407218_351 = 'The "Three True Outcomes" (aka TTO) are home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Originally conceived of as an offbeat tribute to Rob Deer (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=724), the TTO celebrates batters who dont put the ball into play. Ironically, TTO gained some credence beyond its novelty value with the development of Voros McCrackens DIPS theory that states that pitchers have little control over the otucomes of batted balls in play, and thus should be evaluated primarily on the basis of the strikeouts, walks, and home runs they allow. BP has awarded the TTO crown annually for several years. e.g. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4721'; There's no theme to today's article. Just a random mishmash of hopefully interesting statistical tidbits for the past season, and revisiting some ideas from past columns:

Longest Plate Appearances of the Year

I wrote a series of articles back in 2002 that looked at long plate appearances, as measured by number of pitches thrown. I thought it might be fun to look at the long-PA leaders for 2006.

There were three plate appearances that lasted 16 pitches this year. All involved the Astros. On July 27th, the Reds' Elizardo Ramirez struck out Astro Craig Biggio. On the game between Houston and the Cubs on June 15th, Fernando Nieve got Ronny Cedeno to fly out. And finally, Mike Lamb flied out against the Rangers pitcher Vicente Padilla on June 30th.

The longest PAs that ended with a walk were Red Sox hitter Alex Cora getting walked by Cleveland's Paul Byrd on April 27th, and Tiger Brandon Inge earning a pass from Athletic Justin Duchscherer on April 20th. Both were 15 pitches long.

The longest PA ending in a HR (or any hit, for that matter) was Hideki Matsui of the Yankees taking Jae Seo deep on September 25th. At 14 pitches, it was also the longest first-inning PA of the year.

The longest extra-inning PA occurred when Dan Johnson of the A's batted against the Padres' Scott Cassidy in the 14th inning of the game on June 29th. Johnson grounded out to second.

The longest HBP was when Paul Maholm of the Pirates plunked Lastings Milledge of the Mets on the 12th pitch of the PA on September 15th.

The longest plate appearance that never made it to a three-ball count belong to Juan Uribe, who took Jamie Walker to 14 pitches, with taking just two balls. After taking the first-pitch strike, he fouled off three more pitches before taking a ball, then fouled off four more pitches before getting the second ball. Three more fouls later, and Uribe finally grounded out to second on the 14th pitch.

The longest PA of the year involving only strikes (no balls) was between Atlanta's Jeff Francouer and Pittburgh's Paul Maholm on August 2nd. Francouer took a strike, then swung and missed, before fouling off six straight pitches. On the ninth pitch, he swung again and missed for strike three. That's eight swings in a single at-bat without putting the ball in play.

Hidden Perfect Games, No Hitters, and Nightmares

Back in two articles in May 2004, I introduced the concept of a "hidden perfect game," a streak of 27 or more batters retired by a pitcher, but that may span multiple games or be a subset of a single game, and thus not recognized as an official perfect game. Little did I know that on the day the second article appeared, a new hidden perfect game was beginning, and another would start two days later. We went through all of 2006 without having a midden perfecto, but two pitchers managed to achieve one in 2006. Here are all the hidden perfect games since May 26, 2004:

Pitcher          Streak Start Date  End Date
---------------  ------ ---------- ---------
Greg Maddux          32  13-AUG-06 19-AUG-06
Dontrelle Willis     31  28-MAY-04 02-JUN-04
Shingo Takatsu       29  26-MAY-04 22-JUN-04
Livan Hernandez      28  20-JUL-04 25-JUL-04
John Lackey          27  07-JUL-06 07-JUL-06 (leadoff hit, then retired 27 straight)

The idea of a hidden perfect game lends itself to other similar definitions, such as a hidden no-hitter, which is 27 straight at-bats without allowing a hit. This is somewhat easier to achieve, since walks, HBP and reaching on error are permitted during the streak. In fact, there have been 101 hidden no-hitters since 2000, but in the interest of space, we'll show just those with 35 or more straight AB without a hit:

Pitcher                  Streak Start Date  End Date
-------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------
Mike Hampton                 41  14-JUN-03 19-JUN-03
Armando Benitez              40  04-MAY-04 04-JUN-04
Randy Johnson                39  12-MAY-04 23-MAY-04
Derek Lowe                   37  31-AUG-05 05-SEP-05
Alan Embree                  36  15-JUN-02 07-JUL-02
Armando Benitez              36  22-JUL-04 08-SEP-04
Pedro Martinez               35  24-AUG-00 29-AUG-00

We can turn the tables, and look at batting streaks. The batting counterpart of a perfect game might be 27 straight plate appearances without a hit, a "perfect nightmare" if you will. As you might expect, pitchers themselves are represented on the list quite often, as they are often very poor hitters. But the occasional position player creeps on to the list as well. Still we'll set the bar higher for pitchers, requiring 35 straight PA before we'll list them.

Non pitchers:

Player                   Streak StartDate   EndDate
-------------------- ---------- --------- ---------
Andy Fox                     39 28-APR-04 30-SEP-04
Joe McEwing                  34 26-MAY-02 05-JUL-02
Brad Ausmus                  34 18-JUN-06 30-JUN-06
Mark Kotsay                  29 25-JUN-06 03-JUL-06
Hee-Seop Choi                28 21-MAY-05 02-JUN-05
Andruw Jones                 28 13-APR-05 22-APR-05
Brandon Phillips             28 27-MAY-03 05-JUN-03
Brook Fordyce                27 01-JUL-04 08-AUG-04
Torii Hunter                 27 22-APR-00 02-MAY-00
Bernard Gilkey               27 23-MAY-00 18-JUN-00
Pitchers:
Player                   Streak StartDate   EndDate
-------------------- ---------- --------- ---------
Kaz Ishii                    55 19-JUL-02 10-SEP-03
Chris Carpenter              54 24-JUN-04 12-MAY-05
Shane Reynolds               47 14-APR-02 27-MAY-03
A.J. Burnett                 41 29-JUL-01 30-APR-02
Tony Armas Jr.               40 10-APR-03 07-JUN-05
Ryan Dempster                39 22-JUN-01 17-SEP-01
Andy Ashby                   38 23-JUL-02 23-AUG-03
Victor Santos                37 05-AUG-04 30-MAY-05
Aaron Harang                 37 11-MAY-04 06-SEP-04
Matt Kinney                  35 19-JUN-02 13-JUL-03
Doug Davis                   35 30-JUL-04 01-MAY-05

Teams can also turn in hidden perfect games, where multiple pitchers combine to retire 27+ in a row.

Team    Streak StartDate   EndDate
--- ---------- --------- ---------
OAK         31 21-AUG-02 22-AUG-02
TEX         31 08-AUG-02 09-AUG-02
ANA         30 07-JUL-06 08-JUL-06
ARI         28 16-MAY-04 19-MAY-04  (Randy Johnson's actual perfect game)
FLO         27 06-JUL-05 07-JUL-05
SEA         27 02-AUG-01 03-AUG-01
NYA         27 01-SEP-01 02-SEP-01

Hidden no-hitters by teams are also not only possible, but relatively common. There have been 98 hidden team no-hitters. Note that hidden no hitters by individual pitchers and hidden no hitters by teams do not typically overlap. Teams with 35 straight at-bats without a hit since 2000 are:

Team    Streak StartDate   EndDate
--- ---------- --------- ---------
COL         38 01-MAY-02 02-MAY-02
OAK         38 08-APR-06 09-APR-06
PHI         37 26-SEP-01 27-SEP-01
PIT         37 29-AUG-00 30-AUG-00
SDN         36 21-SEP-06 22-SEP-06
ANA         35 06-MAY-01 08-MAY-01
FLO         35 11-MAY-01 13-MAY-01 (A.J. Burnett no hitter)
ANA         35 07-JUL-06 08-JUL-06
LAN         35 19-JUL-00 20-JUL-00

Cycles, Supercycles and Pedicycles

Back in an article in 2003, I introduced two variants on the traditional accomplishment of "hitting for the cycle." The "supercycle" is a game where a batter hits as well as or better than a standard cycle. That is, a game where the batter has at least four hits, including at least one home run, two hits that are either home runs or triples, and three hits that are either home runs, doubles or triples.

There were 27 supercycles in 2006:

NAME                 GAMEDATE  TEA OPP   PA   AB    H  B1  B2  B3  HR   BB CYCLE
-------------------- --------- --- --- ---- ---- ---- --- --- --- --- ---- -----
Nick Johnson         20-APR-06 WAS PHI    5    4    4   1   1   0   2    1     N
Alfonso Soriano      21-APR-06 WAS ATL    5    5    4   0   1   0   3    0     N
Troy Glaus           01-MAY-06 TOR BAL    5    5    4   0   2   0   2    0     N
Jose Castillo        30-MAY-06 PIT MIL    5    4    4   1   1   0   2    1     N
Damion Easley        03-JUN-06 ARI ATL    5    5    4   1   0   0   3    0     N
Gerald Laird         04-JUN-06 TEX CHA    5    5    4   0   2   0   2    0     N
Carlos Beltran       09-JUN-06 NYN ARI    5    5    4   1   1   0   2    0     N
Joe Crede            20-JUN-06 CHA SLN    5    5    4   1   1   0   2    0     N
Jose Reyes           21-JUN-06 NYN CIN    5    5    4   1   1   1   1    0     Y
Kenji Johjima        24-JUN-06 SEA SDN    5    5    4   1   1   0   2    0     N
Richie Sexson        25-JUN-06 SEA SDN    5    5    5   2   1   0   2    0     N
Carlos Beltran       02-JUL-06 NYN NYA    5    5    4   1   1   0   2    0     N
Adam LaRoche         14-JUL-06 ATL SDN    6    6    4   1   1   0   2    0     N
Andruw Jones         18-JUL-06 ATL SLN    5    5    5   2   1   0   2    0     N
Luke Scott           28-JUL-06 HOU ARI    6    6    4   1   1   1   1    0     Y
Carlos Guillen       01-AUG-06 DET TBA    5    5    4   1   1   1   1    0     Y
Mark DeRosa          09-AUG-06 TEX OAK    6    5    4   1   1   0   2    1     N
Chipper Jones        14-AUG-06 ATL WAS    5    5    4   1   0   0   3    0     N
Bernie Williams      27-AUG-06 NYA ANA    5    5    4   1   1   0   2    0     N
Ryan Howard          03-SEP-06 PHI ATL    4    4    4   1   0   0   3    0     N
Cody Ross            11-SEP-06 FLO NYN    5    5    4   1   0   0   3    0     N
Gary Matthews Jr.    13-SEP-06 TEX DET    5    4    4   1   1   1   1    1     Y
Chone Figgins        16-SEP-06 ANA TEX    4    4    4   1   1   1   1    0     Y
Marlon Anderson      18-SEP-06 LAN SDN    5    5    5   2   0   1   2    0     N
Garrett Atkins       19-SEP-06 COL SFN    5    5    4   1   0   1   2    0     N
Andruw Jones         23-SEP-06 ATL COL    5    4    4   1   1   0   2    1     N
James Loney          28-SEP-06 LAN COL    5    5    4   1   1   0   2    0     N

The same article also introduced the "pedicycle," a game where the batter earns a base on balls, in additon to hitting for the cycle. This is quite a bit harder than a supercycle, as it requires reaching base five times in five different ways. It's only been done twice in the past two seasons:

NAME                 GAMEDATE  TEA OPP   PA   AB    H  B1  B2  B3  HR   BB
-------------------- --------- --- --- ---- ---- ---- --- --- --- --- ----
Gary Matthews Jr.    13-SEP-06 TEX DET    5    4    4   1   1   1   1    1
Brad Wilkerson       06-APR-05 WAS PHI    5    4    4   1   1   1   1    1

Reaching on Error Leaders and "True OBP"

Questions about batters who reach base on error (ROE) are one of the most popular kind that I receive from readers. The 2006 leaders in reaching on error are:

NAME                   PA ROE ROE_RATE
-------------------- ---- --- --------
Kenji Johjima         542  13    .0240
Carlos Beltran        617  13    .0211
Juan Pierre           750  13    .0173
Adrian Beltre         681  11    .0162
Edgar Renteria        673  11    .0163
Clint Barmes          535  11    .0206
Josh Willingham       573  11    .0192
Brandon Inge          601  11    .0183
Michael Young         748  11    .0147
Ichiro Suzuki         752  11    .0146
Jay Payton            588  11    .0187
Adam Everett          566  10    .0177
Conor Jackson         556  10    .0180
Melky Cabrera         525  10    .0190
Brian Anderson        406  10    .0246
Orlando Hudson        650  10    .0154
Corey Patterson       499  10    .0200
Derek Jeter           715  10    .0140
Mike Lowell           631  10    .0158

With some batters "missing out" on as much as 24 points of OBP by not considering ROE, you might be wondering who the "true" OBP leaders are. But let's not stop with ROE. Intentional walks, while often a sign of respect for the batter from the opposing team, do not represent the batter's own attempted efforts to reach base, so we'll exclude them. And since we're including reaching on errors, we should also include sacrifice hits in the denominator, since as some recent research has shown, a significant part of the value in sacrificing is the chance that the fielding team blows the play, allowing the batter to reach base.

For players with 300+ plate appearances, the "true OBP" leaders for 2006 are:

NAME                   PA    H  UBB  IBB  HBP   SF   SH ROE    OBP TRUE_OBP
-------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --- ------ --------
Esteban German        331   91   40    0    6    0    6   6   .422     .432
Manny Ramirez         558  144   84   16    1    8    0   5   .439     .432
Travis Hafner         564  140   84   16    7    2    0   1   .439     .424
Bobby Abreu           686  163  118    6    3    9    2   4   .424     .424
Derek Jeter           715  214   65    4   12    4    7  10   .417     .423
Nick Johnson          628  145   95   15   13    3    2   6   .428     .423
Miguel Cabrera        676  195   59   27   10    4    0   8   .430     .419
Joe Mauer             608  181   58   21    1    7    0   6   .429     .419
Barry Bonds           493   99   77   38   10    1    0   3   .454     .415
Chipper Jones         477  133   57    4    1    4    0   5   .409     .414
Albert Pujols         634  177   64   28    4    3    0   5   .431     .413
Garrett Atkins        695  198   73    6    7    7    0   4   .409     .409
Lance Berkman         646  169   76   22    4    8    0   6   .420     .409
Jim Thome             610  141   95   12    6    7    0   2   .416     .408
Jason Giambi          579  113   98   12   16    7    0   4   .413     .407
Carlos Guillen        622  174   61   10    4    4    0   8   .400     .404
Carlos Beltran        617  140   89    6    4    7    1  13   .388     .403
Ryan Howard           704  182   71   37    9    6    0   5   .425     .400

Players who "lose" at least 10 points of OBP using this alternate method are:

NAME                PA    H  UBB  IBB  HBP   SF   SH ROE    OBP TRUE_OBP   DIFF
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --- ------ -------- ------
Barry Bonds        493   99   77   38   10    1    0   3   .454     .415   .039
Ryan Howard        704  182   71   37    9    6    0   5   .425     .400   .024
Vladimir Guerrero  665  200   25   25    4    4    0   1   .382     .359   .023
Albert Pujols      634  177   64   28    4    3    0   5   .431     .413   .018
David Ortiz        686  160   96   23    4    5    0   3   .413     .397   .016
Travis Hafner      564  140   84   16    7    2    0   1   .439     .424   .015
Miguel Cabrera     676  195   59   27   10    4    0   8   .430     .419   .011
Dioner Navarro     302   68   25    6    1    1    1   1   .332     .321   .011
Garret Anderson    588  152   27   11    0    7    0   1   .323     .312   .011
Lance Berkman      646  169   76   22    4    8    0   6   .420     .409   .011
Joe Mauer          608  181   58   21    1    7    0   6   .429     .419   .010
Damian Miller      376   83   26    7    4    5    3   2   .322     .312   .010

Player who gain at least 15 points of OBP using this alternate method are:

NAME                PA    H  UBB  IBB  HBP   SF   SH ROE    OBP TRUE_OBP   DIFF
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --- ------ -------- ------
Kenji Johjima      542  147   19    1   13    3    0  13   .332     .355  -.023
Brian Anderson     406   82   28    2    5    3    2  10   .290     .309  -.020
Jay Payton         588  165   21    1    4    5    0  11   .325     .342  -.018
Josh Willingham    573  139   52    2   11    6    0  11   .356     .373  -.017
Rickie Weeks       413  100   29    1   19    3    2   8   .363     .379  -.016
Aaron Rowand       445  106   16    2   18    2    2   9   .321     .336  -.016
Rondell White      355   83    9    2    4    3    0   7   .276     .292  -.016
Conor Jackson      556  141   52    2    9    7    1  10   .368     .383  -.015
Michael Young      748  217   48    0    1    8    0  11   .356     .370  -.015
Mark DeRosa        572  154   43    1    6    2    0   9   .357     .371  -.015
Carlos Beltran     617  140   89    6    4    7    1  13   .388     .403  -.015
Chris Duffy        348   80   18    1   10    1    4   7   .317     .331  -.015

Three-Pitch Strikeouts

I'm fascinated by pitchers who ring up strikeouts on three pitches, particularly when they are all swung at or all taken. Usually, by the time a pitchers gets to 0-2, he will often waste a pitch outside the strike zone, trying to get the batter to chase one. So the proportion of three-pitch strikeouts is relatively small.

Pitchers with the most three-pitch strikeouts:

NAME                 SO_3PIT
----------------- ----------
Johan Santana             56
John Lackey               49
John Smoltz               46
C.C. Sabathia             45
Aaron Harang              42
Dave Bush                 41
Jeremy Bonderman          39
Jake Peavy                38
Javier Vazquez            37
Brett Myers               37
Scott Olsen               36
Dan Haren                 35
Brandon Webb              35

Pitchers with the most three-pitch strikeouts, all swung at (including fouls and bunt attempts):

NAME              SO_3SWINGS
----------------- ----------
Johan Santana             23
Aaron Harang              17
Ian Snell                 15
John Smoltz               14
John Lackey               13
C.C. Sabathia             12
Jake Peavy                12
Brad Lidge                11
Javier Vazquez            10
Scott Kazmir              10

Pitchers with three or more strikeouts recorded on three pitches, all swung and missed:

NAME              SO_3MISSED
----------------- ----------
Brad Lidge                 5
Aaron Harang               4
Kiko Calero                3
John Koronka               3
Jeremy Bonderman           3
Derrick Turnbow            3
Scott Olsen                3
Brett Myers                3
Mark Mulder                3
Eric Milton                3
Chris Young                3
Andy Pettitte              3
Tim Wakefield              3
Jake Peavy                 3

Pitchers with the most strikeouts recorded on three pitches, all taken:

NAME              SO_3CALLED
----------------- ----------
Greg Maddux                6
Tom Glavine                6
Dave Bush                  4
A.J. Burnett               4
Brad Penny                 4
Jamie Moyer                4

Do Nothing Batters

Sabermetrics teaches us that patience is a virtue for a batter, but it is still the threat of swinging away that drives the confrontation. Should batters who manage to go the entire plate appearance without even attempting a swing once (other than intentional walks, for obvious reasons) even bother bringing a bat up with them?

Batters with the most PA completed without attempting to swing at a pitch (excluding IBB):

NAME              PA_NOSWING
----------------- ----------
Jason Giambi              71
Brian Giles               71
Bobby Abreu               70
Nick Johnson              61
Kevin Youkilis            59
Felipe Lopez              58
Adam Dunn                 56
Carlos Beltran            55
Pat Burrell               54
Nick Swisher              52
Eric Chavez               51
Scott Hatteberg           50
Jason Bay                 50
Travis Hafner             50

Pinch-hitters with the most PA completed without attempting to swing at a pitch (excluding IBB):

NAME              PA_NOSWING
----------------- ----------
Gabe Gross                 7
Jeff DaVanon               6
Craig Counsell             5
Morgan Ensberg             5
Marlon Anderson            5
Daryle Ward                4
John Rodriguez             4
Matt Stairs                4
Ryan Freel                 4
Andy Green                 4

Pitchers with the most batters faced without a swing attempted (excluding IBB):

NAME              PA_NOSWING
----------------- ----------
Carlos Zambrano           67
Daniel Cabrera            60
Barry Zito                59
Dontrelle Willis          56
Steve Trachsel            54
Ervin Santana             54
Doug Davis                53
Josh Beckett              51
Casey Fossum              50
Vicente Padilla           50
Zach Duke                 49
Matt Cain                 49
Scott Olsen               48
Paul Maholm               48
Nate Robertson            45

Hope you enjoyed our random tour through the stats of 2006. If you have any oddball stat requests you'd like to see in a future column, please let me know!

Keith Woolner is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Keith's other articles. You can contact Keith by clicking here

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