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July 6, 2006

Future Shock

Position Breakdown: First Basemen

by Kevin Goldstein

Ranking first baseman is a difficult task, because like second baseman (whom I'll rank next week), players usually don't start as first basemen, then end up there. To begin your career on the bottom end of the defensive spectrum means one thing--you better really hit. A quick look at our league positional stats shows that the average first baseman in the big leagues has an OPS near .850, and some quick math shows that to be a star first baseman requires elite hitting ability, as the top 10 first baseman (measured by VORP) have an average batting line of .307/.405/.584. There's not a single player on this list who projects to that kind of performance without a little bit of dreaming, but that brings me back to my first point. The next star first basemen do exist, but many of them are just not first basemen yet. Of that top 10 list with the monster performances, only three of them (Nick Johnson, Ryan Howard and Todd Helton) started their careers at the position.

1. Daric Barton, Athletics
Age: 20.9 Hitting: .259/.389/.395 in 43 G (AAA)

Barton got off to a great start at Sacramento, batting .338 in April and reaching base by hit or walk 45 times in 22 games. He was batting just .171 in May however, before suffering an elbow injury that will keep him out until August. It was a freak injury on his glove arm when an opposing runner slid into it, causing what is called an avulsion, and I'll leave it to Will Carroll to actually define that. While his overall numbers may be below expectations, this is still a 20-year-old player with a near .400 on-base percentage at Triple-A. I'm not convinced that he'll ever hit for power, but I am convinced that he'll be enough of an on-base machine that it won't matter. If he does start launching more balls over the fence, that's just gravy. He'll likely end up somewhere between John Olerud and Will Clark when it comes to peak value.

2. James Loney, Dodgers
Age: 22.2 Hitting: .378/.420/.562 in 66 G (AAA)

Don't call it a comeback, he's been here for years. Loney was the team's first-round pick in 2002, and drew some national attention when he hit .371 in the Pioneer League for a pro debut and then had some big games in ESPN's spring training broadcasts the following year. That was followed by three disappointing seasons with OPSes of .737, .641 and .776. At the same time, Loney was dealing with continuous wrist problems, which hampered his performance and tempered expectations. Scouts remained high on him--with his performance this year finally catching up to what evaluators thought he could do. Loney's ability to hit for average is not in doubt, but his ability to hit for power is. Despite being 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Loney's swing is designed for spraying line drives all over the field and going with the pitch, as opposed to getting a lot of leverage. Like Barton, the difference between Loney becoming a good player or a great player will depend on if the power ever comes. For what it's worth, Loney is the best defensive first baseman on this list.