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June 26, 2006

Prospectus Today

Driving the Story

by Joe Sheehan

Last night, the White Sox came back from a 9-1 deficit in the seventh inning to tie their game with the Astros 9-9 in the ninth. They went on to lose in 13 innings, but it was an amazing display, nonetheless. The Sox got homers in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings, the latter two from Tadahito Iguchi, bombs that were responsible for all eight runs they put on the board during the comeback.

Now, they lost the game, but I’m still left wondering: where are all the stories about how the 2006 White Sox are changing the game with power? Why aren’t we reading, on a daily basis, how hitting the long ball has pushed the Sox to the second-best record in baseball and how their embrace of the home run heralds a new era in baseball?

See, it was just about a year ago that the White Sox were cruising along with the best record in the game. Riding along with that mark was a flood of stories about how they were winning, stories that rarely mentioned that historic defensive performance and their reliance on the home run, but rather emphasized their use of the stolen base and sacrifice bunt. The Sox did attempt a lot of steals and lay down a lot of bunts in 2005, but those things had much less impact on their record than did the amazing defense and the 199 home runs.

Regardless, the Sox’ success with a nominally smallball approach, coupled with a leaguewide drop in power and run scoring--one correctly labeled a blip in stathead circles--in the wake of increased penalties for steroid usage, drove the defining meme of 2005: that the game had shifted out of a power era and into one in which manufacturing runs, speed and defense would again be paramount, The Blessed Little Things ascendant. It was nonsense, but it was easy-to-write nonsense.

We’re approaching the halfway mark of the 2006 season, and it’s clear that this gamewide shift to lower run scoring and less power isn’t actually happening. League slugging and isolated power marks are nearly identical to what they were in 2004, and higher than they were in 2003, back when almost everyone in major league baseball did steroids on a daily basis because the game was a lawless pit of self-interest and chemically-enhanced greed.

More to the point, it’s clear that if you want to be successful, you have to hit the ball a really long way. The White Sox, who were among the teams most reliant on the longball to score last year, are even more power-oriented in 2006. They lead the majors in homers and are second in slugging. By acclimation, the three best teams in baseball are the Sox, Tigers and Mets. Those three are all in the top five in homers, slugging and isolated power; keep in mind that the latter two play in pitchers’ parks.