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May 31, 2006

Fantasy Focus

Stolen Base Report

by Jeff Erickson

We spend a lot of time analyzing closers and closers-in-waiting for rotisserie purposes, and justifiably so, given the scarce nature of what they do. Not as much time is spent on stolen bases, however. So let's give them a deeper look, not just from the perspective of who is and who isn't running, but also looking at who is and who isn't preventing the running game. The following is a breakdown of some of the top basestealers, some unlikely sources of speed, and some trends among teams stopping stolen bases.

Felipe Lopez has 16 stolen bases, but his last successful attempt was on May 11, one day after his four-bag game against the Nats. Since the 11th he has gone 0-for-3 in stolen base attempts. His recent lack of steals isn't due to a slump either--his on-base percentage after the 11th was .369, and today it sits at .373. Reds manager Jerry Narron has emphasized to the media on multiple occasions that Lopez is not what he considers a traditional base stealer, but rather "a guy that can steal a base," so long as he picks his spots. Lopez might not always have the green light, so don't be surprised if his production starts to decline a little. The Reds have two other guys with at least 10 stolen bases, in Ryan Freel and Brandon Phillips. Freel's playing time has taken a big hit with the emergence of Phillips and the return of Ken Griffey Jr. from the DL, and he has slumped badly (.274 OBP in May) at the plate. He'll likely correct his problems at the plate, but unless and until he starts playing more regularly, he's not going to be as reliable as he once was at providing stolen bases. Phillips, on the other hand, has run more (seven of his 10 stolen bases have come in May) as he's gotten more playing time, even as his production at the plate has started to taper off (.279/.326/.349). He hasn't been caught yet in 10 attempts.

Corey Patterson has played pretty regularly ever since David Newhan's injury and has put it to good use. He's 17-for-18 on the basepaths, he's improved his on-base numbers to passable-if-not-good levels, and is starting against both lefties and righties. Even before Brian Roberts came off the DL, Patterson was hitting down in the order, so his production shouldn't change much.

After stealing seven bases in April, Adrian Beltre is just 2-for-4 in stolen base attempts in May. His career-high in stolen bases is 18, but he hasn't had a double-digit stolen base season since 2001. He's had a sore hamstring lately, an injury that also bothered him last year. Look for his May numbers to be closer to the norm than the exception.

Willy Taveras only has eight stolen bases on the season, but five of them have come in his last 10 games and seven overall in May. He hasn't been more productive at the plate for the month (in fact, his OPS has gone down during May), but he has been running more often and more successfully.

Torii Hunter missed much of last year with an ankle injury and got off to a slow start this year. He has only four stolen bases on the season, after swiping 23 in 98 games last year and 21 the year before that. The good news is that he seems to be running more recently, with two stolen bases in his last 10 games. He had recurring soreness in his ankle in April, an issue that still might be present later on. We originally projected 20 stolen bases for Hunter, a number that we would lower if we were to project him again now.