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April 20, 2006

Under The Knife

Expert

by Will Carroll

I'm often introduced as a "baseball expert." I always chuckle, because to me, the more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know. Every discovery, every analysis, every set of data leads to new conclusions and often just as many questions as answers. Over the next few weeks, I'm hoping to get into a lot more detail about some of the things I've been working on.

First, get used to the term "pitch efficiency." I've talked about this in the past, but with the complete game obsession still burning in some corners, efficiency is going to need to become a well-known term, understood as a true value rather than some archaic state. We're also going to introduce you to "useable velocity." We've all seen the guy who goes to the mound with a 100 mph fastball and a compass, all heat and no control. Useable velocity is a concept that Tom House and the National Pitching Association is working hard on, along with "perceived velocity." If a pitcher has three tools--velocity, command, and deception--we may have been looking at one of those tools incorrectly. We're also going to take a hard look at release point. A pitcher stands sixty feet, six inches at the start of his delivery, but no one releases it there. The difference is important and finally being measured. Finally, we're going to look deep into our souls, deeper into the science, and question one of the great pitching questions: when should we teach the curveball? It's an exciting time and BP has an interesting place in the center of the research, working with ASMI, Kerlan-Jobe, and the National Pitching Association, among others.

Powered by an afternoon of high school baseball, on to the injuries:

• Anytime the first thing that pops to mind is the infamous Cliff Floyd/Todd Hundley collision, you know it's bad. It's worse if you're a Cubs fan and you see Derrek Lee leave the field clutching his wrist. The Floyd/Hundley reference came to me from Joe Sheehan and, after I rushed to view the highlight, I can see exactly what he meant. Rafael Furcal crashed into Lee as the tall 1B stretched for a high throw. While he left under his own power, it certainly looked like he was in pain. Lee had X-rays, but was sent back to Chicago anyway. It's not clear at this point whether something was seen that needs MRI confirmation or whether this is a soft-tissue injury. This injury happened late, so no word yet on what the details may be, so follow this one closely. (In what might be the single biggest VORP warp ever, Lee was replaced in the game by Neifi Perez.)

• Chalk one up for the THRs. We pegged Bartolo Colon as someone to watch back in that cycle, even though he looked pretty good in the World Baseball Classic. Colon had the same type of injury to his shoulder that Ben Sheets dealt with, but took a different direction in dealing with it. Colon wasn't the same pitcher he was last year, unless you count those ugly playoff starts as part of his Cy Young campaign. An MRI showed inflammation and some fraying inside the shoulder, though the fraying should be discounted; almost any active pitcher is going to have some degree of damage inside their shoulder. He'll get rest, treatment, anti-inflammatories, and strengthening while on the DL. Comments from Bill Stoneman indicate that Colon has a scarring problem in his muscle, echoing Ben Sheets' spring problems. Expect him back early in May, though we don't pretend to know what to expect when he returns at this stage.

• As bad as things looked for Jeff Kent a few days ago, seeing him in a game is both worrisome and wonderful. A couple Tylenols took care of the headache he's still experiencing, while his blurred vision self-corrected. He'll be watched closely by the medical staff. That headache says the effects of the beaning are still there. One thing I haven't been able to figure out from the replays is whether Kent was wearing one of the new, ventilated helmets, or one of the old-style lids. I'm not sure there's much difference in how they work, but information is information. The Dodgers are also looking forward to the return of Nomar Garciaparra. While James Loney has filled in nicely, Garciaparra should take the position back this weekend after a short Vegas vacation--err, rehab stint. (Hey, Nomar: could you see if you could score me some tickets to the new Cirque show at the Mirage?)

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