April 19, 2006
Your Wednesday Draft Update
With the 2006 draft countdown now under the two month mark, things remain highly unresolved, though some separation among the top players has begun to take hold. Instead of focusing on players, let's instead take a look at what some of the teams are talking about when it comes to overall draft strategy and possible trends come June.
As much as teams work on identifying the players they would consider with their first round pick, a good amount of work is put into trying to figure out how the selections ahead of one's pick will pan out as well, in order to better define which players to focus on. Here's how the first five picks may be panning out right now:
1. Kansas City: Nobody doubts that North Carolina lefthander Andrew Miller is the top talent in the draft, but rumors abound that the Royals may be looking elsewhere--not as a talent-based decision, but a cost-conscious one. One scouting director understood the Royals' thinking. "If you look at last year's draft, there are six, maybe seven players who'd be in the mix for No. 1 right now if they were in this class," he said. "So is Miller worth the kind of money that the No. 1 guy gets? I'm not sure I'd rather have one of the other pitchers for half the price." Another team executive disagrees. "He's [Miller] such a proven commodity. We've seen him good for five years now--he's easily worth it for me. If he fails, he's still a No. 3 starter." If the Royals for some reason stay away from Miller, Houston righthander Brad Lincoln would likely be the top candidate. However, one executive added that the biggest problem with not taking Miller is that the next best talent is still undefined. "The problem here is who's your second choice? That's a scary question still and we're just eight weeks away."
2. Colorado: Colorado would likely be more than happy to nab Miller if for some reason he drops to them, otherwise they are focusing on Lincoln, California's Brandon Morrow, and Long Beach State infielder Evan Longoria. One scout discussed how it's difficult to see Colorado taking a pitcher like Lincoln or Washington's Tim Lincecum, who depend greatly on plus breaking pitches. "Morrow would be better for them because of the fastball and the splitter," he said. "How good is Lincecum's curveball if he's throwing it in Coors? I don't know." Another saw Longoria at two as an overdraft. "He's head and shoulders above everybody else on the collegiate level," he said. "But he's not going to be any more than a real good everyday player--if I thought he could play second base I'd be more enthused."
3. Tampa Bay: The Devil Rays seem to be also focused on pitching, and will likely take whoever is left between Lincoln and Morrow, with Lincecum entering the picture if he continues to roll.
4. Pittsburgh: The Pirates are a bit of a wild card still, with few having a real good feel for who the Pirates are focusing on. One interesting theory has the Pirates taking Texas prep righty Kyle Drabek. "It's a justifiable pick, because he's arguably the top high school player out there," said one executive. "But just as importantly, that team needs to get some fannies in the seats, and the son of a former star could be just the ticket." Another scout saw Longoria as the clear choice for Pittsburgh. "It's not the type of thing you normally think about with your top pick," said the scout, "But he plays a position where the team has no obvious future candidate, and he could get there awfully quickly."
5. Seattle: In many ways, Seattle is in a position where they just have to identify their top five players and see which one falls to them. They'll likely go the college route and would be pleased with a scenario that dropped Longoria to them. If Longoria and the big three arms (Miller, Morrow, Lincoln) are all unavailable, hometown hero Lincecum could become the surprising favorite.
Dribs and Drabs