March 8, 2006

Aim For The Head

Quick-n-Dirty Base-Out Expected Runs Matrix

by Keith Woolner

How many times has this happened to you? You're driving down the street and your spouse or significant other drops a bombshell:

"Honey, how many runs are expected to score in the rest of the inning if there are runners on first and third with two outs?"

Or you're at a cocktail party, and someone who's had a little too much punch starts arguing in a loud voice"

"I'd rather have the bases loaded with one out than runners on second and third with nobody out!"

And silly, careless you! You left your copy of "The Hidden Game Of Baseball" at home. You don't even have your Blackberry handy to find Palmer's base-out expected runs matrix on the Internet. And unlike Clay Davenport and James Click, you haven't committed the matrix to memory. What will you do? WHAT... WILL... YOU... DO?

Baseball Prospectus to the rescue. Here's a quick and dirty way you can approximate the expected number of runs given the bases that are occupied and the number of outs. We'll use an example to demonstrate--runners on first and third with one out:

Method A)

Step 1) Count up the "total bases" represented by the runners on base--that is, a runner on third counts for 3 bases, a runner on second counts for 2 bases, and a runner on first counts for 1 base.

Runners on first and third are 1 + 3 = 4 total bases.

Step 2) Multiply by the number of outs left in the inning.

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