Scott Podsednik, the White Sox left fielder, is about to go homerless with
more than 500 at bats for the season! Does anyone know if a regular
left fielder has ever done this before?
–R.H.
R.H.,
Not as rare as you might think, though unusual for a LF. Here’s all the
HR-less seasons since 1980 with at least 500 PA. Apparently, having a
first name that starts with “O” is a good way to ensure an “0” in the HR
column.
YEAR NAME PA AB ---------- -------------------- ---------- ---------- 2005 Jason Kendall 632 562 2005 Scott Podsednik 525 468 2001 Rey Sanchez 579 544 1999 Luis Castillo 563 487 1995 Otis Nixon 656 589 1993 Lance Johnson 579 540 1992 Omar Vizquel 527 483 1992 Jose Lind 507 468 1992 Ozzie Smith 590 518 1992 Luis Polonia 635 577 1991 Lance Johnson 624 588 1991 Willie Randolph 512 431 1989 Alvaro Espinoza 544 503 1989 Al Newman 521 446 1989 Felix Fermin 562 484 1989 Gerald Young 620 533 1989 Harold Reynolds 677 613 1989 Alfredo Griffin 546 505 1988 Ozzie Guillen 606 566 1988 Scott Fletcher 609 515 1988 Gerald Young 655 576 1988 Jim Gantner 596 539 1987 Ozzie Smith 706 600 1986 Vince Coleman 670 600 1986 Ozzie Smith 609 514 1986 Steve Jeltz 510 439 1984 Kirby Puckett 583 557 1984 Jack Perconte 689 612 1984 Marvell Wynne 702 653 1983 Jerry Remy 647 592 1983 Pete Rose 555 493 1983 Alan Wiggins 585 503 1982 Larry Bowa 549 499 1982 Tom Herr 561 493 1982 Jerry Remy 716 636 1982 Manny Trillo 595 549 1981 Ozzie Smith 507 450 1980 Ozzie Smith 712 609 1980 Miguel Dilone 566 528 1980 Rodney Scott 655 567 1980 Frank Taveras 598 562
–Keith Woolner
I was looking at the respective DT cards for Mike Young and David Ortiz
and I noticed something that concerned me. It seems that WARP is based on
BRAR, FRAR, and PRAR (which neither of them pitch, so that doesn’t
matter). Is WARP based on BRAR or BRARP?
Also, on a more philosophical matter. Which hurts a team more, running
a .300 EqA out in a middle infield position when that person is at -20
FRAR, or having that same player DH for the season? As far as I’m
concerned the average .300 EqA DH is much worse than -20 FRAR at either
middle infield position.
–I.B.
I.B.,
BRAR. The fielding runs is the only place a positional adjustment
comes in. Ortiz has 74 BRAR and 2 FRAR for a net of +76 RAR, while Young
is +56 and +3 for a net +59.
If you worked from positional averages instead, Ortiz would get a +41
(using 1B EqA of .282 instead of average .260) and +1 for +42, while Young
would get +42 (SS EqA .252) and -26 for +16.
-20 FRAR is Frank Thomas at third base territory. I’m pretty sure you
meant FRAA, as that roughly corresponds to Young; a -20 FRAR at short
would be -50 FRAA. Being a shortstop instead of a DH gives Young an
advantage of about 29 runs, which show up in the FRAR (29 for an average
SS, 0 for a DH). The batting runs are the same for all
positions; an average DH will have an EqA of about .282 (using the 1B
EQA), which would be about +16 BRAR over 400 outs; an average SS (.252
EqA) scores -5 BRAR, a difference of 21.
A .300 EQA, for 400 outs, has about 30 BRAR. A full-time average
shortstop will have about 30 FRAR. So if our hypothetical SS can do better
than a -30 FRAA, he’ll be worth more to the team than he would be as a DH.
Clearly there is a breakeven point where the value of the lost fielding
outweighs the gained hitting. I think Young is close to that point.
–Clay Davenport
First teenager to crack the majors since Todd Van Poppel? What am I missing
here? Edwin Jackson? Matt Riley? Rick Ankiel?
–L.V.
L.V.,
Ankiel was 20–it was an August game vs. the Expos, not long after his
July 19 birthday.
Riley made his MLB debut on Sept. 9, 1999, a month after his 20th birthday.
Jackson came closest: He made his MLB debut on Sept. 9, 2003, right on his
20th birthday.
So Todd Van Poppel’s 1991 debut stands as the last teenage pitcher to crack the majors until Felix Hernandez did it this year, albeit just barely.
–Jonah Keri
The question was put to me recently: Has any pitcher ever seen his ERA
rise from under 3.00 in one season to over 6.00 the following season
(assuming minimum of 100 IP each year)?
The reason for the question is that Oliver Perez is about to do it,
assuming he throws 8 more ugly innings this year. I looked up some
pitchers who have come close, but found no one that has actually done
it. Steve Blass, David Cone, Jose Lima, and Esteban Loaiza are the
closest cases I could find.
–Casey Coneway
Casey,
There have been a few who’ve had such a rise…
NAME YEAR IP ERA IP_NEXT ERA_NEXT DIFF -------------------- ----- ------ ------ ------- -------- ------ Bohanon,Brian 1998 151.7 2.91 197.3 6.20 3.295 Jackson,Danny 1988 260.7 2.97 115.7 6.07 3.100 Hassler,Andy 1974 162.0 2.61 133.3 6.01 3.396 Hargan,Steve 1970 142.7 2.90 113.3 6.19 3.290 Vaughn,Hippo 1920 301.0 2.54 109.3 6.01 3.470 Duryea,Jesse 1892 127.0 2.41 117.0 7.54 5.130
Duryea at least had the excuse of the pitching distance being changed in
1893 to help explain his rise. Bohanon is interesting in that he pitched
more innings in his 6+ ERA year than his 3- ERA year.
–K.W.
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