May 27, 2005

Prospectus Matchups

Ivy Pride

by Jim Baker

BEST MATCHUP (opponents with best combined Prospectus Hit List rankings): Chicago White Sox (2nd) @ Texas Rangers (11th)

Here's a not-so-crazy idea for the Rangers: Make some kind of offer for Roger Clemens. This will allow Clemens to keep pitching in his home state and give the Rangers a better shot at making something out of the American League West race before the Angels make a mockery of it--in spite of their many problems.

Kenny Rogers has some pretty stunning stats to go with the fourth-highest VORP in the majors. He easily has the worst K:BB ratio of anyone in the VORP top 15. Other than Carlos Silva of the Twins (15th), who has, conversely, nearly given up walking batters entirely, Rogers has the fewest strikeouts per nine innings. He's given up the second-most hits per nine (just in front of Silva, once again) and has walked more men per game than everyone except Milwaukee's Chris Capuano in that group. How has Rogers performed this smoke and mirrors act? It's helped that he's kept the ball in the park. Only Shea Hillenbrand of the Blue Jays has managed to touch him for a homer. (Florida's Josh Beckett and Oakland's Kirk Saarloos are the only other qualifying starters to have allowed just one home run.)

Chris Young goes for the Rangers tonight and he's in a position to log one of the more impressive rookie starting pitcher campaigns of the last quarter-century. He hasn't had a bad outing since his second start of the season. If things continue at this pace, he (along with Toronto's Gustavo Chacin) could end up with a VORP in the 40s. Only 20 rookie pitchers who were predominantly starters have done this since 1979:

63.1 Britt Burns, 1980 White Sox
58.4 Hideo Nomo, 1995 Dodgers
56.8 Rolando Arrojo, 1998 Devil Rays
52.1 Freddie Garcia, 1999 Mariners
49.4 Brandon Webb, 2003 Diamondbacks
49.3 Ismael Valdez, 1995 Dodgers
47.4 Rodrigo Lopez, 2002 Orioles
47.3 Dwight Gooden, 1984 Mets
45.3 Orlando Hernandez, 1998 Yankees
45.1 Matt Morris, 1997 Cardinals
44.9 Mike Boddicker, 1983 Orioles
44.9 Fernando Valenzuela, 1981 Dodgers
44.3 Tim Hudson, 1999 A's
44.1 John Halama, 1999 Mariners
44.0 Roy Oswalt, 2001 Astros
42.3 Rick Ankiel, 2000 Cardinals
41.9 Kevin Appier, 1990 Royals
41.2 Jose Rosado, 1996 Royals
41.2 Ross Baumgarten, 1979 White Sox
40.0 Dontrelle Willis, 2003 Marlins

Young turned 26 just two days ago, so he's not exactly a phenom. He is, however, a fairly rare cat--a pitcher with an Ivy League pedigree (in this case, Princeton). Could he become the best pitcher ever to come out of that particular collegiate athletic league? It's a long shot, but there is not a great deal of precedent in that regard. While Ivy schools have produced Hall of Fame hitters Lou Gehrig and Eddie Collins and solid careerists Roy Thomas and Red Rolfe, there have been no all-time great pitchers to emerge from their hallowed halls, although Ron Darling was pretty decent. (The League's two divisions are named after Gehrig of Columbia and Rolfe of Dartmouth.)

Here are the all-time won-lost records of pitchers who attended Ivy League schools (courtesy baseball-reference.com):

             W       L       PCT.   Most notable pitcher
Harvard     47      39      .547    Jeff Musselman
Yale       399     338      .541    Ron Darling
Brown      349     371      .485    Bump Hadley
Princeton   57      63      .475    Dave Sisler
Dartmouth  264     328      .446    Mike Remlinger
Cornell     11      15      .423    Ole Oleson
Columbia    54      95      .362    George Smith
Penn        26      61      .299    20 non-descript fellows

Total     1207    1310      .480
 

This doesn't include Young's 7-4 mark heading into tonight's game with the White Sox. With his entry into the majors, he's catapulted Princeton past Brown in the all-time winning percentage sweepstakes. (As a side note, looking at the Ivy totals makes me think it would be interesting to see what the all-time won-lost record for college attendees is compared to non-attendees. It's probably close to a 50/50 split, but it would be neat to find out.)

WORST MATCHUP (opponents with worst combined Prospectus Hit List rankings, provided both are in the lower half): Pittsburgh Pirates (23rd) @ Cincinnati Reds (30th)

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