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April 1, 2005

Preseason Predictions

NL Staff Picks, 2005

by Baseball Prospectus

Index: Voting Results | Individual Ballots | World Series Picks

Yesterday we started our prediction miniseries with a look at the American League. Today we unveil our National League and World Series picks.

Each author's ballot may be found later in the article. Here, we neatly summarize the results. In each division standings table you'll find the average rank of the team, plus the standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more in agreement the authors were about that team's place in the division standings. In our AL column, the Royals had a standard deviation of 0, meaning that all authors agreed they would finish last. We have similar consensus with the old/new Washington Nationals, also picked to finish last across the board. Such agreement is rare around here, and obviously means that both the Royals and Nationals will finish third in their respective divisions.

It's worth noting that the standard deviations are much higher in the NL than in the AL, particularly in the NL East, where each contending team has about the same chance of winning the division as finishing fourth. This plays out in our wildly dissimilar predictions for that division, as our authors think that the Braves, Mets, Phillies and Marlins could all be printing World Series tickets this year.

Standings:

NL EAST


Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Philadelphia Phillies      1.83        1.1
Atlanta Braves             2.08         .97
New York Mets              2.92        1.08
Florida Marlins            3.97         .83
Washington Nationals       5            0


NL CENTRAL


Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

St. Louis Cardinals        1.25         .45
Chicago Cubs               1.83         .57
Milwaukee Brewers          3.91         .99
Houston Astros             4.08        1.08
Cincinnati Reds            4.25        1.05
Pittsburgh Pirates         5.67         .65


NL WEST


Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Los Angeles Dodgers        1.33         .65
San Diego Padres           1.83         .39
San Francisco Giants       3.17         .94
Arizona Diamondbacks       4.17         .71
Colorado Rockies           4.5          .67


World Series Predictions


Author               Winner        Loser
----------------------------------------
Will Carroll         Red Sox       Cubs
James Click          Braves        Red Sox
Clay Davenport       Yankees       Cubs
Jay Jaffe            Cardinals     Twins
Rany Jazayerli       A's           Phillies
Chris Kahrl          Dodgers       ----
Jonah Keri           Red Sox       Marlins
Dave Kirsch          Braves        Red Sox
Dayn Perry           Red Sox       Phillies
Joe Sheehan          Twins         Mets
Nate Silver          Red Sox       Phillies
Keith Woolner        Red Sox       Dodgers

Individual Awards:

For the MVP voting, we've kept the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere: 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP Award, and 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 10 points for a first place vote, 7 for a second place vote, etc). The projected statistics appearing after each player's name are their baseline PECOTA forecasts.

Legend:

  • Hitters: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), AVG/OBP/SLG, VORP, WARP, EqA
  • Pitchers: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), IP, ERA, VORP, WARP

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols 11 104 (9) .336/.419/.637, 84.9, 11.9, .360
  2. Carlos Beltran 4 35 (3) .277/.372/.505, 46.9, 7.9, .309
  3. Bobby Abreu 7 33 .298/.411/.524, 51.6, 8.0, .322
  4. Miguel Cabrera 5 25 .293/.357/.524, 41.4, 7.2, .304
  5. Jim Thome 3 21 .271/.393/.578, 44.3, 5.5, .323
  6. Barry Bonds 3 15 .324/.514/.658, 72.7, 9.0, .400
  7. Adam Dunn 3 13 .270/.395/.565, 39.9, 6.2, .321
  8. Scott Rolen 3 11 .290/.383/.541, 44.7, 8.1, .317
  9. J.D. Drew 4 10 .278/.388/.513, 39.9, 6.6, .315
  10. Lance Berkman 1 7 .288/.404/.536, 43.1, 7.0, .318
  11. Aramis Ramirez 1 7 .274/.333/.491, 21.1, 4.8, .280
  12. Nomar Garciaparra 3 5 .289/.342/.478, 31.7, 5.2, .281
  13. Chipper Jones 1 5 .275/.379/.487, 26.6, 4.9, .302
  14. Jim Edmonds 2 4 .285/.391/.587, 49.2, 7.6, .329
  15. Carlos Delgado 1 3 .271/.393/.521, 41.0, 6.1, .318
  16. Marcus Giles 1 3 .283/.358/.451, 30.9, 6.2, .286
  17. Troy Glaus 1 3 .276/.384/.570, 30.9, 4.6, .314
  18. Derrek Lee 1 2 .273/.365/.505, 30.0, 5.5, .298
  19. Jason Bay 1 1 .273/.368/.507, 27.2, 5.5, .302
  20. Todd Helton 1 1 .330/.435/.583, 50.3, 8.5, .325

NL Cy Young

  1. Ben Sheets 10 27 (3) 218.0, 3.11, 57.7, 8.4
  2. Pedro Martinez 6 22 (3) 193.7, 3.06, 49.2, 7.2
  3. Josh Beckett 4 12 (1) 162.0, 3.51, 30.9, 5.0
  4. Tim Hudson 3 11 (1) 172.7, 3.55, 33.1, 5.4
  5. Jason Schmidt 4 10 (1) 211.0, 3.06, 53.4, 7.7
  6. Jake Peavy 5 9 153.0, 3.78, 21.4, 4.0
  7. Roy Oswalt 2 6 (1) 200.3, 3.72, 39.8, 6.3
  8. Mark Mulder 1 5 (1) 182.3, 3.80, 29.2, 4.8
  9. Mark Prior 1 5 (1) 161.7, 3.24, 40.7, 5.9
NL ROY
  1. Jeff Francis 6 18 (2) 114.3, 5.00, 15.8, 3.0
  2. Gavin Floyd 5 17 (1) 98.0, 4.77, 6.4, 1.7
  3. J.J. Hardy 5 13 (1) .257/.315/.423, 9.8, 2.7, .256
  4. Garrett Atkins 4 12 (2) .284/.349/.459, 2.5, 1.5, .261
  5. Chris Burke 3 9 (1) .267/.338/.392, 5.5, 1.7, .258
  6. Andy Marte 3 7 (1) .253/.335/.466, 11.3, 2.9, .278
  7. Clint Barmes 2 6 (1) .268/.309/.421, .7, 1.7, .234
  8. Edwin Jackson 2 6 (1) 80.0, 4.58, 3.9, 1.3
  9. Jason DuBois 1 5 (1) .255/.332/.473, 5.9, 1.7
  10. Yusmeiro Petit 1 5 (1) 105.3, 3.31, 23.5, 3.6
  11. Ezequiel Astacio 1 3 82.3, 4.67, 7.2, 1.7
  12. Kyle Davies 1 3 81.7, 4.60, 6.1, 1.6
  13. Conor Jackson 1 3 .249/.319/.414, -3.2, 1.2, .251
  14. Prince Fielder 1 1 .251/.340/.443, 8.3, 1.5, .273

Individual Ballots

Will Carroll

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST
Braves           Cardinals           Giants
Mets             Cubs (WC)           Padres
Phillies         Brewers             Dodgers
Marlins          Astros              Diamondbacks
Nationals        Reds                Rockies
                 Pirates

Most Valuable Player

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Barry Bonds
  3. Carlos Beltran
  4. Adam Dunn
  5. Jason Bay
Cy Young
  1. Mark Prior
  2. Ben Sheets
  3. Jason Schmidt
Rookie of the Year
  1. Andy Marte
  2. Gavin Floyd
  3. Prince Fielder

James Click

STANDINGS


NL EAST         NL CENTRAL         NL WEST

Phillies        Cardinals          Dodgers
Braves (WC)     Cubs               Padres
Marlins         Brewers            Giants
Mets            Astros             Diamondbacks
Nats            Reds               Rockies
                Pirates

MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Bobby Abreu
  3. Barry Bonds
  4. J.D. Drew
  5. Scott Rolen
CY
  1. Tim Hudson
  2. Pedro Martinez
  3. Ben Sheets
RoY
  1. Edwin Jackson
  2. Conor Jackson
  3. Garrett Atkins

Clay Davenport

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cubs                Padres
Atlanta          Cardinals (WC)      Dodgers
Mets             Astros              Giants
Marlins          Brewers             Rockies
Nationals        Pirates             Diamondbacks
                 Reds

MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Aramis Ramirez
  3. Miguel Cabrera
  4. Troy Glaus
  5. Todd Helton
CY
  1. Josh Beckett
  2. Tim Hudson
  3. Ben Sheets
RoY
  1. Garrett Atkins
  2. Gavin Floyd
  3. Jeff Francis
Jay Jaffe

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves           Cardinals           Dodgers
Marlins (WC)     Cubs                Padres
Phillies         Astros              Giants
Mets             Brewers             Rockies
Nationals        Reds                Diamondbacks
                 Pirates

MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Bobby Abreu
  3. Miguel Cabrera
  4. Barry Bonds
  5. J.D. Drew
CY
  1. Roy Oswalt
  2. Ben Sheets
  3. Jake Peavy
RoY
  1. J.J. Hardy
  2. Jeff Francis
  3. Edwin Jackson
Rany Jazayerli

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cubs                Dodgers
Mets (WC)        Cardinals           Padres
Braves           Brewers             Giants
Marlins          Reds                Diamondbacks
Nationals        Astros              Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

  1. Carlos Beltran
  2. Bobby Abreu
  3. Adam Dunn
  4. Nomar Garciaparra
  5. Derrek Lee
CY
  1. Ben Sheets
  2. Pedro Martinez
  3. Josh Beckett
RoY
  1. Gavin Floyd
  2. J.J. Hardy
  3. Jeff Francis

Chris Kahrl

STANDINGS


NL EAST           NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves            Cardinals           Dodgers
Mets              Reds                Padres (WC)
Marlins           Cubs                Diamondbacks
Phillies          Pirates             Giants
Los Nationales    Brewers             Rockies
                  Astros

MVP

  1. Carlos Beltran
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Chipper Jones
CY
  1. Mark Mulder
  2. Ben Sheets
  3. Jake Peavy
RoY
  1. Jeff Francis
  2. Gavin Floyd
  3. J.J. Hardy
Jonah Keri

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cardinals           Dodgers
Marlins (WC)     Cubs                Padres
Braves           Astros              Giants
Mets             Brewers             Diamondbacks
Nats             Reds                Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Jim Thome
  3. Bobby Abreu
  4. Miguel Cabrera
  5. J.D. Drew
CY
  1. Jason Schmidt
  2. Josh Beckett
  3. Pedro Martinez
RoY
  1. Garrett Atkins
  2. Kyle Davies
  3. J.J. Hardy
Dave Kirsch

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves           Cardinals           Dodgers
Mets (WC)        Cubs                Padres
Phillies         Astros              Rockies
Marlins          Reds                Giants
Nationals        Brewers             Diamondbacks
                 Pirates

MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Adam Dunn
  4. Marcus Giles
  5. Jim Edmonds
CY
  1. Pedro Martinez
  2. Jake Peavy
  3. Ben Sheets
RoY
  1. Yusmeiro Petit
  2. Gavin Floyd
  3. Chris Burke

Dayn Perry

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cardinals           Padres
Braves           Cubs (WC)           Dodgers
Marlins          Brewers             Giants
Mets             Reds                Diamondbacks
Nationals        Astros              Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Jim Thome
  3. Scott Rolen
  4. Carlos Delgado
  5. Bobby Abreu
CY
  1. Ben Sheets
  2. Josh Beckett
  3. Jake Peavy
RoY
  1. Chris Burke
  2. J.J. Hardy
  3. Garrett Atkins

Joe Sheehan

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets             Cubs                Dodgers
Phillies         Cardinals (WC)      Padres
Marlins          Reds                Giants
Braves           Brewers             Diamondbacks
Nationals        Astros              Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

  1. Carlos Beltran
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Scott Rolen
  4. Bobby Abreu
  5. Nomar Garciaparra
CY
  1. Pedro Martinez
  2. Tim Hudson
  3. Jason Schmidt
RoY
  1. Jason DuBois
  2. Ezequiel Astacio
  3. Andy Marte

Nate Silver

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cardinals           Dodgers
Braves           Cubs (WC)           Padres
Mets             Brewers             Diamondbacks
Marlins          Reds                Rockies
Nationals        Astros              Giants
                 Pirates

MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Jim Thome
  3. J.D. Drew
  4. Jim Edmonds
  5. Derrek Lee
CY
  1. Pedro Martinez
  2. Jason Schmidt
  3. Ben Sheets
RoY
  1. Clint Barmes
  2. Jeff Francis
  3. Andy Marte

Keith Woolner

STANDINGS


NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cardinals           Dodgers
Marlins (WC)     Cubs                Giants
Braves           Astros              Padres
Mets             Reds                Rockies
Nationals        Pirates             Diamondbacks
                 Brewers

MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Lance Berkman
  3. Miguel Cabrera
  4. Bobby Abreu
  5. Nomar Garciaparra
CY
  1. Ben Sheets
  2. Jake Peavy
  3. Roy Oswalt
RoY
  1. Jeff Francis
  2. Chris Burke
  3. Clint Barmes

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