March 31, 2005

Preseason Predictions

AL Staff Picks, 2005

by Baseball Prospectus

Index: Voting Results | Individual Ballots

Our authors, august worthies every one, wrap up the offseason with their predictions for 2005. Come Sunday, we will no longer need the future tense, as we'll have actual baseball to discuss.

In part one of this two-part series, we focus on the American League, concentrating on the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year). Tomorrow we'll conclude with the National League predictions, along with the staff picks for the World Series representatives.

Each author's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a tidy summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of the team, plus the standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more in agreement the authors were about that team's place in the division standings. There was unanimous agreement on the Royals' fate for 2005, for example, but no one agreed on where the Rangers would end up.

In highly important news, no author referred to the Angels as the "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim."

Standings:

AL EAST

Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Boston Red Sox             1.08         .29
New York Yankees           1.92         .29
Baltimore Orioles          3.33         .65
Toronto Blue Jays          4.08         .51
Tampa Bay Devil Rays       4.58         .8

AL CENTRAL

Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Minnesota Twins            1.33         .49
Cleveland Indians          1.75         .62
Detroit Tigers             3.42         .67
Chicago White Sox          3.5          .52
Kansas City Royals         5            0

AL WEST

Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Oakland A's                1.42         .67
L.A. Angels of Anaheim     2            .74
Texas Rangers              3            .85
Seattle Mariners           3.58         .80

Individual Awards:

For the MVP voting, we've kept the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere: 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP Award, and 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 10 points for a first place vote, 7 for a second place vote, etc). The projected statistics appearing after each player's name are their 50th percentile 2005 PECOTA forecasts.

Legend:

• Hitters: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), AVG/OBP/SLG, VORP, WARP, EqA
• Pitchers: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), IP, ERA, VORP, WARP

AL MVP

1. Alex Rodriguez 10 76 (4) .286/.380/.547, 58.0, 9.8, .319
2. Vladimir Guerrero 9 58 (3) .313/.385/.552, 55.3, 7.9, .322
3. Eric Chavez 6 52 (4) .281/.378/.526, 45.2, 8.4, .311
4. Manny Ramirez 8 44 .306/.408/.571, 52.6, 7.4, .330
5. Mark Teixeira 2 15 (1) .294/.378/.553, 39.7, 6.4, .306
6. Hank Blalock 3 13 .287/.360/.504, 25.9, 5.8, .288
7. Justin Morneau 3 13 .281/.349/.513, 26.6, 4.1, .293
8. Victor Martinez 3 9 .280/.354/.456, 30.5, 5.5, .285
9. Miguel Tejada 2 8 .293/.349/.498, 51.6, 8.7, .293
10. Johan Santana 2 6 199, 2.91, 69.1, 8.7
11. Travis Hafner 1 3 .282/.384/.518 40.9, 5.0, .312
12. Hideki Matsui 1 3 .283/.373/.479 29.3, 5.5, .300
13. David Ortiz 3 3 .284/.372/.549 42.7, 5.2, .310
14. Vernon Wells 2 2 .287/.343/.490 29.5, 6.1, .284
15. Randy Johnson 1 1 215.7, 2.83, 72.4, 9.5
16. Joe Mauer 1 1 .298/.362/.453 25, 4.8, .286
17. Sammy Sosa 1 1 .251/.337/.486 16.5, 3.5, .285

AL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana 11 47 (7) 199, 2.91, 69.1, 8.7
2. Randy Johnson 12 38 (4) 215.7, 2.83, 72.4, 9.5
3. Rich Harden 4 14 (2) 152.7, 4.43, 22.3, 3.6
4. Roy Halladay 3 5 165.0, 3.91, 36.5, 5.2
5. Curt Schilling 2 2 207.7, 3.76, 52.9, 7.1
6. Jeremy Bonderman 1 1 164.3, 4.70, 15.9, 3.4
7. Keith Foulke 1 1 69.0, 3.43, 21, 2.7
8. Cliff Lee 1 1 148.3, 4.73, 18.1, 3.4
9. Mariano Rivera 1 1 80.3, 3.48, 20.5, 2.9

AL ROY

1. Jeremy Reed 9 39 (6) .279/.345/.413, 15.2, 3.7, .277
2. Dallas McPherson 6 22 (3) .267/.343/.491, 17.8, 3.2, .289
3. Joe Blanton 2 6 100.3, 4.59, 12.8, 2.2
4. Ian Kinsler 2 6 (1) .268/.335/.433, 10.8, 2.4, .262
5. Brandon McCarthy 2 6 (1) 85.0, 4.76, 12.2, 2.0
6. Ruben Gotay 1 5 (1) .256/.327/.403, 7.8, 2.3, .256
7. Tadahito Iguchi 3 5 .272/.338/.401, 6.5, 1.8, .260
8. Nick Swisher 3 5 .240/.344/.419, 8.6, 2.4, .272
9. Jason Bartlett 2 4 .262/.334/.372, 6.2, 2.0, .255
10. Scott Kazmir 2 4 98.3, 4.57, 13.0, 2.2
11. Huston Street 1 3 66.0, 4.29, 10.9, 1.7
12. Felix Hernandez 2 2 78.0, 4.16, 10.9, 1.8
13. Jered Weaver 1 1 (PECOTA N/A)

Individual Ballots:

• Will Carroll
• James Click
• Clay Davenport
• Jay Jaffe
• Rany Jazayerli
• Chris Kahrl
• Jonah Keri
• Dave Kirsch
• Dayn Perry
• Joe Sheehan
• Nate Silver
• Keith Woolner

Will Carroll

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Indians             A's
Yankees (WC)     Twins               Rangers
Orioles          Tigers              Angels
Blue Jays        White Sox           Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

Most Valuable Player

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Eric Chavez
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Victor Martinez
5. Sammy Sosa

Cy Young

1. Rich Harden
2. Randy Johnson
3. Cliff Lee

Rookie of the Year

1. Ian Kinsler
2. Tadahito Iguchi
3. Jered Weaver

James Click

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Indians             A's
Yankees (WC)     Twins               Mariners
Devil Rays       Tigers              Angels
Blue Jays        White Sox           Rangers
Orioles          Royals

MVP

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Eric Chavez
4. Johan Santana
5. Vladimir Guerrero

CY

1. Johan Santana
2. Randy Johnson
3. Curt Schilling

RoY

1. Dallas McPherson
2. Jeremy Reed
3. Nick Swisher

Clay Davenport

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Yankees          Twins               Angels
Red Sox (WC)     Tigers              A's
Orioles          Indians             Rangers
Blue Jays        White Sox           Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Vlad Guerrero
4. Hideki Matsui
5. David Ortiz

CY

1. Randy Johnson
2. Johan Santana
3. Mariano Rivera

RoY

1. Jeremy Reed
2. Joe Blanton
3. Jason Bartlett

Jay Jaffe

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Twins               Angels
Yankees (WC)     Indians             A's
Orioles          White Sox           Rangers
Blue Jays        Tigers              Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

1. Vlad Guerrero
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Manny Ramirez
4. Travis Hafner
5. David Ortiz

CY

1. Johan Santana
2. Randy Johnson
3. Curt Schilling

RoY

1. Dallas McPherson
2. Jeremy Reed
3. Scott Kazmir

Rany Jazayerli

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Twins               A's
Yankees (WC)     Indians             Angels
Blue Jays        White Sox           Rangers
Orioles          Tigers              Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

1. Eric Chavez
2. Vlad Guerrero
3. Hank Blalock
4. Miguel Tejada
5. Vernon Wells

CY

1. Rich Harden
2. Johan Santana
3. Randy Johnson

RoY

1. Jeremy Reed
2. Dallas McPherson
3. Felix Hernandez

Chris Kahrl

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Indians             Angels
Yankees (WC)     Twins               A's
Blue Jays        White Sox           Rangers
Orioles          Tigers              Mariners
Devil Fishies    Royals

MVP

1. Vlad Guerrero
2. Justin Morneau
3. Victor Martinez

CY

1. Johan Santana
2. Roy Halladay
3. Randy Johnson

RoY

1. Jeremy Reed
2. Jason Bartlett
3. Brandon McCarthy

Jonah Keri

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Twins               A's
Yankees (WC)     Indians             Angels
Orioles          Tigers              Rangers
Blue Jays        White Sox           Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

1. Eric Chavez
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Vlad Guerrero
4. Manny Ramirez
5. David Ortiz

CY

1. Randy Johnson
2. Johan Santana
3. Roy Halladay

RoY

1. Jeremy Reed
2. Joe Blanton
3. Tadahito Iguchi

Dave Kirsch

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Twins               A's
Yankees (WC)     Indians             Angels
Orioles          White Sox           Rangers
Blue Jays        Tigers              Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Hank Blalock
3. Vladimir Guerrero
4. Justin Morneau
5. Victor Martinez

CY

1. Randy Johnson
2. Johan Santana
3. Roy Halladay

RoY

1. Brandon McCarthy
2. Nick Swisher
3. Ian Kinsler

Dayn Perry

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Twins               A's
Yankees (WC)     Indians             Angels
Orioles          Tigers              Rangers
Blue Jays        White Sox           Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

1. Eric Chavez
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Vlad Guerrero
4. Manny Ramirez
5. Randy Johnson

CY

1. Randy Johnson
2. Johan Santana
3. Rich Harden

RoY

1. Dallas McPherson
2. Jeremy Reed
3. Nick Swisher

Joe Sheehan

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Twins               Angels
Yankees          Indians             A's (WC)
Orioles          Tigers              Mariners
Blue Jays        White Sox           Rangers
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

1. Vlad Guerrero
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. Justin Morneau
5. Vernon Wells

CY

1. Johan Santana
2. Rich Harden
3. Randy Johnson

RoY

1. Ruben Gotay
2. Huston Street
3. Tadahito Iguchi

Nate Silver

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Twins               A's
Yankees (WC)     Indians             Mariners
Orioles          White Sox           Angels
Devil Rays       Tigers              Rangers
Blue Jays        Royals

MVP

1. Eric Chavez
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Manny Ramirez
4. Johan Santana
5. Joe Mauer

CY

1. Johan Santana
2. Randy Johnson
3. Jeremy Bonderman

RoY

1. Jeremy Reed
2. Dallas McPherson
3. Felix Hernandez

Keith Woolner

STANDINGS

AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Indians             Rangers
Yankees (WC)     Twins               Angels
Devil Rays       White Sox           A's
Orioles          Tigers              Mariners
Blue Jays        Royals

MVP

1. Mark Teixeira
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Miguel Tejada
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Hank Blalock

CY

1. Johan Santana
2. Randy Johnson
3. Keith Foulke

RoY

1. Jeremy Reed
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Dallas McPherson