December 20, 2004

The Class of 2005

The Pitchers

by Jay Jaffe

As I wrote last year, the Baseball Writers Association of America's ideas of what constitutes a Hall of Fame pitcher are curious. A group of 300-game winners whose careers spanned the mid-'60s to the mid-'80s (Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Gaylord Perry, Don Sutton, Nolan Ryan, Phil Niekro) have all been tapped for Cooperstown, while Ferguson Jenkins remains the sole non-300-winning starter to be voted in by the writers since 1991. Perry, Sutton, and Niekro took a combined 13 ballots to reach the Hall while Ryan waltzed in with a record-setting vote total in his first ballot appearance, further muddying an issue whose rule of thumb-- "Just Wins, Baby"--already bodes ill for every pitcher this side of Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux.

The 2004 election saw the writers tab just the third reliever for induction, as Dennis Eckersley joined Hoyt Wilhelm and Rollie Fingers among the bronzed legends. While Eckersley's dominance and his usage pattern ("Just the Saves, Ma'am") contributed mightily to his election, his decade as a starter and the stats he garnered in that role mean that his ascension offers us little insight on the writers' view of what makes a Hallworthy reliever. The standards for starters may be somewhat easy to discern, if lately a bit unrealistic, but with a growing number of quality relievers on the ballot, the continuous evolution of the closer role, and the paucity of standards to measure them by, sorting out the bullpen elite poses a hefty challenge to voters.

One of the great lessons of the sabermetric revolution is the idea that the pitcher doesn't have as much control over the outcome of ballgames (as reflected in his win and loss totals) or even individual at-bats (hits on balls in play) as he's generally given credit for. Good run support and good defense can make big winners of mediocre pitchers on good teams, and .500 pitchers of good hurlers on mediocre teams. As such, it's important to examine the things over which a pitcher has control and account for those he does not.

Once again, the Davenport system rides to the rescue, as it adjusts for the same factors--park effects, league environment and era--for pitchers as for hitters. It also adjusts for the level of defense behind a pitcher, and converts to the currencies of Pitching Runs Above Replacement (PRAR) and Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP, again referring exclusively to the adjusted-for-all-time version, WARP3). In examining these pitchers, we'll also use Pitching Runs Above Average (PRAA) because it forms a reasonable secondary measure for "peak" in conjuction with PRAR's "career" proxy. A pitcher with many PRAA but fewer PRAR likely had a high peak and a short career, while one with the same number of PRAA but more PRAR likely had a longer career. Although durability should not be confused with excellence, league average has value, as anybody who's ever suffered through a fifth starter's pummeling knows. As with the the hitters, we'll see how career and peak totals shake down to JAWS with regards to the pitchers.

Eleven pitchers are on the 2004 Hall of Fame ballot, six holdovers and five newcomers. Of the holdovers, reliever Bruce Sutter (59.5 percent) has separated himself from the pack, while fellow relievers Rich Gossage (40.7 percent) and Lee Smith (36.6 percent) backslid a bit from their 2003 showings. Starter Bert Blyleven (35.4 percent) gained about six percent last year, and Jack Morris (26.3 percent) inched forward as well, while Tommy John (21.9%) continues to fade. New to the ballot are starters Mark Langston and Jim Abbott, and reliever Jeff Montgomery.

Starting Pitchers

             W    L  SV    IP   ERA  ERA+  AS  CY  3C   HOFS   HOFM
Blyleven   287  250   0  4970  3.31  118    2   0   0   50.0  120.5
John       288  231   4  4710  3.34  111    4   0   0   44.0  111.0
Morris     254  186   0  3824  3.90  105    5   0   3   39.0  122.5
Langston   179  158   0  2963  3.97  108    4   0   3   23.0   64.0
Candiotti  151  164   0  2725  3.73  109    0   0   0   17.0   11.5
McDowell   127   87   0  1889  3.85  111    3   1   1   18.0   36.5
Abbott      87  108   0  1674  4.25  100    0   0   0    3.0    6.0

           PRAA   PRAR    WARP   PEAK   JAWS
Blyleven    303   1442   139.3   45.6   92.5
John         48   1145   110.2   30.4   70.3
Morris       33    954    92.5   38.0   65.3
Langston    147    874    87.5   40.5   64.0
Candiotti    93    762    75.1   38.0   56.6
McDowell    115    591    60.8   43.0   51.9
Abbott       12    437    44.9   35.6   40.3
AVG HOF P   205    964    95.1   43.6   69.4

Abbott overcame a tremendous obstacle--being born without a right hand--to succeed in baseball. Despite the impairment, Abbott starred at the University of Michigan, became the Angels' first-round draft choice in 1988, and leapt into the big club's rotation without a day in the minors. After two years distinguished mainly by his survival in the bigs (the latter in a rotation that included fellow ballotmates Blyleven and Langston), he reeled off a stellar season in 1991, placing fourth in the AL ERA and third in the Cy Young balloting, a campaign good for 10.1 WARP. His followup season was nearly as good (8.9 WARP, fifth in ERA). Traded to the Yankees and then bouncing through four more stops, the rest of his career featured ups (a pinstriped no-hitter in 1993) and downs (a 2-18, 7.48 ERA trainwreck in 1996). His biggest victory may be in lasting the ten years required to make the Hall ballot, and while he doesn't have a case for induction, that shouldn't diminish admiration for his accomplishments.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.