CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Today: The ... (12/11)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Prospectus Today: The ... (12/11)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Post... (12/16)
Next Article >>
The Week in Quotes: No... (12/13)

December 12, 2004

Prospectus Today

Day Two

by Joe Sheehan

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Saturday was a light day at the Anaheim Marriott, with a much higher ratio of rumors to action than we saw on Friday. There were no free-agent signings and just two trades, a light day by any standard.

  • The Braves have put a lot of eggs into the John Smoltz-as-starter basket, a decision that, as I understand it, wasn't entirely their choice. Smoltz wants to start, and expressed that preference in strong enough terms to force the Braves' hand.

    I think Smoltz is an extremely poor bet to last the year in the rotation. He's made five starts in this century, hasn't completed a full season as a starting pitcher since 1997, and isn't that far removed from looking like his arm was going to fall off on any given pitch (the 2003 Division Series).

    Trading a live arm--Jose Capellan--for Danny Kolb is the wrong way to go about replacing Smoltz. Kolb's high save total this year doesn't mean he has magic closer skills; he just was the best option on a bad team, and put together a peak season that, even in it, featured a below-average strikeout rate and generally so-so peripherals. His freakishly high groundball-to-flyball ratio in the first half came back to earth in the second, as did his freakishly low extra-base hit rate. He's just a guy, one lacking the skill set of the pitcher they traded away for him or even one that helps him standout among pitchers the Braves already have, such as Juan Cruz and Chris Reitsma.

    Kolb is just a guy. The lesson of his last 16 months isn't that he's special, but that good relievers often come from the waiver wire, or the independent leagues, or the failure of an infield prospect to hit. The Brewers did well to deal Kolb at the peak of his value, allowing him to become Paul Quantrill on someone else's dime.

    The Braves will be sending a PTBNL to the Brewers as well. Now, I heard conflicting reports, but if it's the name most often mentioned, left-handed Dan Meyer, Brewers' GM Doug Melvin will have gone a long way to beefing up a woefully thin pitching staff.

  • If two small-market teams make a trade and no one talks about it, does it actually happen?

    The Pirates and Indians swapped contracts with some players attached, the Tribe getting Arthur Rhodes in exchange for Matt Lawton. It's actually a pretty good baseball trade for both teams. The Indians' bullpen improved dramatically in the second half of last year, but still lacked a top-tier left-hander. Rhodes is unlikely to get back to his 2000-01 peak, but should still be one of the game's most reliable southpaws.

    Lawton gives the Pirates a much-needed dose of OBP and left-handedness. His acquisition would appear to lock Craig Wilson in as the everyday first baseman, although it's possible that the Pirates could use Lawton or Jason Bay in center field, leave Wilson in right and acquire a first baseman. With a staff that, save the two power lefties, doesn't strike out a ton of guys, they'll be much better off with a real center fielder than whatever extra runs they might pick up by adding a hitter at first base.

Let me add my heartfelt congratulations to the pile accumulating next to Peter Gammons, who was named the winner of the J.G. Taylor Spink award for outstanding baseball writing. I've enjoyed his work for nearly 20 years now. To this day, my attention paid to "Baseball Tonight" hinges largely on whether he's on the show. That I've been fortunate to meet him and talk some baseball with him is among the highlights of my career, and I don't care how fanboy that sounds.

Peter loves baseball, a passion that he's able to convey in everything he writes. For that alone, he deserves his spot among the game's greatest scribes.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Joe's other articles. You can contact Joe by clicking here

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Today: The ... (12/11)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Prospectus Today: The ... (12/11)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Post... (12/16)
Next Article >>
The Week in Quotes: No... (12/13)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Andrew Miller Goes to ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: If You've Got Asdrubal...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: A's hire A's
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Not Just A Pretty Face
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Yankees Get a Proper I...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Give the Red Sox Your ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Great Big David Pr...


MORE BY JOE SHEEHAN
2004-12-21 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Non-Tenders
2004-12-17 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: The AL West Takes the Stag...
2004-12-16 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Post-Meetings Spree
2004-12-12 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Day Two
2004-12-11 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: The Meetings, Day One
2004-12-10 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Full Speed Ahead
2004-12-08 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Arb Barbs
More...

MORE PROSPECTUS TODAY
2004-12-21 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Non-Tenders
2004-12-17 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: The AL West Takes the Stag...
2004-12-16 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Post-Meetings Spree
2004-12-12 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Day Two
2004-12-11 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: The Meetings, Day One
2004-12-10 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Full Speed Ahead
2004-12-08 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Arb Barbs
More...