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September 3, 2004

When Greatness Comes Early

Being Realistic About Young Players

by Chaim Bloom

When it comes to personnel decisions at the major-league level, baseball executives are paid to predict the future. They have a leg up on Nostradamus and his ilk, though, because scouting and statistical research illuminate trends and tendencies that shape most players' careers. One of these tendencies, which has formed the basis for many tenets of performance analysis, is that players tend to peak at age 27. That conclusion was reached by Bill James and published in his 1987 Baseball Abstract.

This crucial knowledge informs every team's player moves, and when it does not, leads us to question them. For instance:

• Budget concerns aside, the A's felt comfortable not trying to match New York's enormous offer for Jason Giambi in the fall of 2001, because the 31-year-old Giambi was a less than even bet to surpass his outstanding prime years in Oakland.

• Because Adrian Beltre will be just 26 next April, teams will be more inclined to see his monster 2004 as a breakout season and not a fluke. Were Beltre 30, almost everybody would see his .337/.385/.651 performance as the likely peak in his career (cf. Javy Lopez, 2003); instead, many clubs will treat Beltre as if he's just hitting his stride.

• We put the Devil Rays and Tigers under scrutiny for opening the 2003 season with Rocco Baldelli and Jeremy Bonderman on their respective rosters. The D-Rays have now added B.J. Upton, Joey Gathright and Scott Kazmir as well. The idea is that promoting these unready players so soon will be a long-term detriment since, if they stay on the major-league roster, they will reach free agency right as they are hitting their peaks, instead of remaining under their original team's control through their best years.

Knowing the traditional career path does not, however, guarantee anything about any particular player. Players generally follow that path, but individuals can and will take a variety of other courses. Our knowledge of the standard career path tells us, at the very least, that if we call up a young Bonderman or sign an aging Giambi, we are going against the odds. Many players will defy them, but we can't know who they are.