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August 30, 2004

Under The Knife

Thirty Games Left

by Will Carroll

Thirty games. Give or take a few, that's the time we have left to answer the questions we have left. As the calendar flips again, heading downhill to the playoffs, I'll be watching the injuries more closely than ever. Some will sneak by, but it's getting harder and harder for baseball teams to keep injuries hidden.

On to the injuries…

• I didn't expect him back, but the Angels have activated Troy Glaus. According to the team, he'll be limited to DH, but could be used at first base "in an emergency." It's unreasonable to expect Glaus to match his early-season power numbers--he was slugging .694 when he went down--but by coming back early, Glaus' contributions are all bonus. Given that the Angels were close to trading for Joe Randa just a few weeks ago, a limited Glaus is probably the equivalent at no cost. Players coming back this late in the season often get the "good as a trade" cliché going, but there's little evidence to show this. Players who have missed a significant portion of the season can scarcely be expected to be the equivalent of an acquisition, which tends to address specific weaknesses with a successful player. It's certainly a positive, but not quite as much as many think.

• Corey Koskie has a high ankle sprain, an injury that, if severe, can wipe out a season. The Twins think Koskie can be back in ten days, and will not DL him with roster expansion coming. There's some discussion that Koskie may need to DH once he's able to return, but with Shannon Stewart already getting some time there and Joe Mauer not able to squat, those at-bats are pretty precious. Third base is a weak spot for the Twins. The injury pushes Michael Cuddyer over from second, leaving Luis Rivas and Augie Ojeda up the middle with Cristian Guzman. If Koskie's injury lingers, the Twins are significantly weakened.

• Losing a starter doesn't help any team, but the Cubs are better positioned to deal with an injury than most. Matt Clement left Sunday's game with what has been described as a back or neck strain. The injury is of unknown severity, but seems to be muscular in nature. Depending on how long it takes to interrupt the pain/spasm cycle, and Clement's response to treatment, he could miss as little as one start. Glendon Rusch is the likely fill-in on a short- or long-term basis.

• How worried do I get when velocity is off over a certain number of starts? Pretty worried, but it's just one piece of data. Velocity loss is the best predictor of fatigue for those of us who aren't pitching coaches. Mark Mulder and C.C. Sabathia have left a couple mph on the shelf over their past few starts, but it's not enough to say that they're injured or even anything more than fatigued. Given that both make the top 25 (or is that bottom 25?) on the PAP charts for 2004, fatigue would seem to be the optimal explanation. I'm not predicting injury, even though both were red flagged at the start of the season (oops). I'm just giving you something I think is worth knowing.

• Steve Karsay may not be the pitcher Yankees hoped he would be, but he's going to be a Yankees pitcher sooner than most expected. Karsay will be added to the active roster on Monday, making him eligible for the postseason. While Karsay is expected to take some of the load off of Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon, he's certainly not someone who can be used to set up at this stage. His success on the mound is relative. If he gets the rest of his bullpen mates some rest heading into the playoffs, he's done his job.

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