March 22, 1999
Ten - or Eight - Angry Men
Keith -- I enjoy your articles, and thought that I would ask you a question that I have never seen answered in all of the mags, books and websites: How does valuation change if you have 11 or 10 (or less) teams instead of the standard 12? I can see that it brings prices down (more players to buy from), but I would be interested to hear your thoughts on strategic implicatons.
Steve brings up two key but distinct points about adjusting your plans for drafting in a small league: pricing and strategy. Neither changes in exactly the way that many people assume.
Steve points out that prices on the whole should drop. Demand for players decreases while the supply of players remains constant (assuming the league is still using the full NL or full AL); that will decrease the average price of each player.
However, that average price decline is misleading: the average drops because 40-80 players who would be bought in 12-team auctions will remain free agents in 8- or 10-team auctions. The average price for a purchased player remains the same, $11.30.
In fact, some players aren't likely to see their values drop at all. For example, closers and top base-stealers will likely remain at or near their 12-team values, because the total pool of saves and stolen bases purchased will not change; even 8-team leagues will buy every available closer, likely closer, and basestealing threat they can.
Whose values will drop? Fringe players will drop off the charts entirely, although category considerations and position requirements may mean that the 46 players dropped in a shift from 12 to 10 teams aren't necessarily the 46 "least valuable" players in the 12-team scenario. In addition, "generic" players who aren't key in the stolen base or saves categories will see roughly 10% declines in their prices, although those can obviously be highly variable.
Given the inherent unpredictability of auction prices, it's more important to focus on a good strategy if you're dealing with a small roto league. Some points to keep in mind: