CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

No Previous Article
No Next Article

March 9, 1999

NL West Notebook

Rookies to Know in 1999

by Dave Pease

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

This is a very old team with few openings for rookies. At the top of management's list is infielder Danny Klassen, who has a shot at the utility spot for 1999. A considerably more interesting player to anyone who paying attention is 2B Jackie Rexrode, whose skill set reminds one of vintage Lance Blankenship, only better. Arizona could really use someone who can get on base, but it's not like they know it. In any case, he's probably a year or two away, and although it's early, it's an open question whether he can break a .300 SLG at the major league level. More importantly, the D-Backs have a traffic jam of highly-paid players qualified to play middle infield, so he'll probably remain in the minors this year; there are early rumblings that he might get moved to the outfield. It's possible but unfortunate that former Giant prospect Dante Powell will grab an outfield spot, but it is the logical extension of a team policy of finding ways to keep Dave Dellucci from playing.

With all the signings on the pitching staff, it's almost inconceivable that a rookie is going to make any mark on this year's D-Backs pitching staff. Two rookies may get significant time in middle relief: Cuban Vlad Nunez and the very large Ben Ford. Of the two, Nunez is the better prospect because of his greater potential, but either one of them are capable of putting up 70-80 good innings this year. Brad Penny is moving up the chain quickly, and he is one of the best prospects in baseball, but he'll have a tough time unseating any of the starters in Arizona in 1999.

COLORADO ROCKIES

With an experienced rotation, bullpen, and starting eight, the Rox don't have much place for rookies on this year's team either. There's probably only one spot on the Opening Day roster that's open, and it wouldn't be out of character for Jim Leyland to hand it to John Wehner. In the outfield, Derrick Gibson might get a backup spot this year. He's really not much of a prospect at this point, having failed to progress much in the last few years, but he should enjoy hitting in the thin air as much as anyone else does. If not Gibson, either Angel Echevarria or Edgard Clemente could nab the last outfield spot that's open.

Pitcher Mark Brownson might grab a starting spot with a good spring training and an injury or two. He'll need some luck to get it, and he'll need a lot more luck to keep it: he's not ready to start in the majors. If given the shot, look for a tateriffically short stay on Planet Coors. Lariel Gonzalez may get a crack at some time in the bullpen if one of the veteran relievers goes down, and the Rox might goof off with Jim Stoops briefly if they don't want to bring Gonzalez up just yet.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Adrian Beltre isn't officially a rookie, but he's an official stud with little major league experience. The Dodgers never bothered starting Dave Hansen when they needed another option at third, so don't expect them to do so now. There's nothing standing in Beltre's way but plain bad luck.

Creaky Hundley's elbow may or may not hold up, and look for catcher Angel Pena to be the first receiver in line if Hundley can't catch. Pena may be the last in a line of top-notch prospects the Dodgers chain has presented to the big league club, and Johnson and Malone seem to know it. He's a great dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate with the uncertainty surrounding Hundley's health. Paul LoDuca may get to stick around, caddying for either Hundley or Pena.

Los Angeles' starting staff is almost as deep as Peter Gammons thinks it is, so chances are they won't be bringing up prospect Mike Judd to start many games this year. It is especially unlikely they bring Judd up to relieve again. Scott Radinsky and Mark Guthrie are both gone, so lefty Jeff Kubenka shouldn't have any problems making the staff--and terminating the competition--in 1999. His minor league numbers have been overwhelming so far.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

The Padres are looking to start the season with two rookies in their staff. Matt Clement is one of baseball's top prospects, and with the loss of Joey Hamilton and Kevin Brown from the rotation, he's virtually guaranteed a regular starting spot. Scouts have said he pitches like Brown, but that's really too much to expect from a 24 year old. Look for an effective campaign at the bottom of the rotation. Clement was outpitched by Stan Spencer last season, and if that happens again the Padres will be in pretty good shape. Spencer is way too old to be a serious prospect, but he finally appears to be healthy after years of injury problems and is a good bet to be effective this year.

The Pads' position players are set, but newly acquired Damian Jackson might start the season as the second baseman if Quilvio Veras hasn't recovered from his shoulder surgery by then. Jackson has been a prospect forever, and is better and younger than Andy Sheets, so he may play himself into the utility job this spring. Catcher Ben Davis will have to fight his way through Carlos Hernandez, Jim Leyritz, and Greg Myers to get meaningful time with the big club in 1999. Don't bet on it happening. With Tony Gwynn's bad wheels, and Reggie Sanders' constant health problems, don't be surprised if either Mike Darr, Gary Matthews Jr., or Pete Tucci come up for cups of coffee.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

This is another old, generally established team; the Giants have some holes, but don't have anyone of note in the minors to fill them. As a result, there won't be much help coming from the minors this year. Russ Ortiz isn't a rookie, but he has good stuff, and should start the season in the Giants rotation. He's likely to be bombed early and often, but keep an eye on him. He's still young and is a good bet for future success. There's probably one spot open in the bullpen, and minor league veteran Robby Crabtree has as good a shot as anyone for it. Highly touted prospect Jason Grilli will probably get called up to fill in for whichever starter goes down or slumps, but as much progress as he's made since being the highest-picked starting pitcher in the '97 draft, it may be much too soon.

With Rey Sanchez' departure, Wilson Delgado will probably back up Richie Aurilia at short this season. Delgado isn't a prospect; all that can really be said about him is that he's cheaper and likely a more effective player than Sanchez. There are worse backup infielders in baseball, and some of them (David Howard comes to mind) have fashioned remarkable careers for themselves. Armando Rios will get a long look in camp in the competition for the job in center field, but late-season heroics against the Dodgers aside, he is not a top-notch prospect or even an improvement on Stan Javier.

Dave Pease is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Dave's other articles. You can contact Dave by clicking here

Related Content:  Rookies Of The Year

0 comments have been left for this article.

No Previous Article
No Next Article

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, August 22
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting for Era
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, Augu...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 22, 2014
Premium Article Raising Aces: Police and Thieves
Transaction Analysis: Boston Signs Cuban Sta...
Premium Article Painting the Black: A Marlins Fastball, A Tw...

MORE FROM MARCH 9, 1999
Transaction Analysis: March 1-7
AL East Notebook
Orlando Cepeda and the Hall of Fame
NL Central Notebook
AL Central Notebook

MORE BY DAVE PEASE
1999-04-29 - NL West Notebook
1999-04-09 - NL West Notebook
1999-03-14 - NL West Notebook
1999-03-09 - NL West Notebook
1999-02-26 - NL West Notebook
1999-01-07 - Transaction Analysis: December 2-28
1998-12-02 - Transaction Analysis: November 11-December 1...
More...