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July 9, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Don't Forget About Me

by J.P. Breen


A couple weeks ago, we discussed some unexpected early-season fantasy studs and asked how they had fared since their brilliant starts to the season. An intrepid commenter suggested a follow-up article that highlighted some players who had accelerated their performance after spinning their wheels out of the gate. This is my humble acquiescence.

This article does not wish to suggest each one of these players has successfully shaken off his early-season blunders. Rather, the fact that some could legitimately revert and again become a fantasy wasteland makes this project a bit more interesting. The limited space makes it impossible to draw any definite conclusions, but I hope to bring up some interesting points to help give you direction as you consider your squad’s roster construction.

Brad Miller, shortstopSeattle Mariners


Time

PA

AVG

OPS

ISO

BABIP

HR

SB

BB%

K%

03/31-05/30

169

.158

.484

.092

.198

3

3

7.7%

25.4%

06/01-07/07

116

.279

.801

.183

.324

5

0

8.6%

22.4%


Miller has become the internet’s poster boy for unheralded improvement this season. He’s hitting .207/.277/.336 on the year and is barely a top-30 fantasy shortstop, but the 24-year-old has begun to claw his way back to respectability. The improvements over the past month have been significant across the board--more base hits, more power, and better discipline.

Before jumping squarely on the bandwagon, though, it’s important for us to recognize whence this improvement has germinated. It’s not a simple increase across the board, as the overall numbers would lead to believe. Miller has done nothing more than rediscover his stroke against righties. He has still been a complete basketcase against southpaws.

Slash Line vs. LHP: .133/.198/.227, 4.9% walk rate, 37.8% strikeout rate

Slash Line vs. RHP: .238/.308/.381, 9.4% walk rate, 18.7% strikeout rate

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6 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

DanDaMan

JP, do you like Odorizzi anymore than say Kuroda, Gausman or Porcello for this year? Thanks

Jul 09, 2014 04:20 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member J.P. Breen
BP staff

Odorizzi isn't a sure thing -- so it depends on your penchant for risk -- but I'd probably opt for JO over Porcello. Kuroda has improved as of late, but his upside is extremely limited. JO has a chance to be more valuable. As for Gausman, it depends if Baltimore actually keeps him in the bigs and lets him pitch every fifth day.

Jul 09, 2014 12:05 PM
 
joseconsuervo

If you plug Castellanos' batted ball data into the xBABIP spreadsheet you can see that he is expected to have a .366 BABIP. The kid is a line drive machine which is why that number is so high. I agree with all of what you said there, but there's a chance his BABIP doesn't regress.

Jul 09, 2014 05:50 AM
rating: 1
 
FastballVelociraptor

Where does one find this "xBABIP spreadsheet"?

Jul 09, 2014 09:34 AM
rating: 0
 
seanqueue

I'm a little surprised not to see Curtis Granderson here, though he snapped out of his early season doldrums well before May 30. I snagged him in a deal in early May for the fantasy equivalent of a bag of magic beans, and (to strain an already terrible metaphor) he has been a golden egg machine ever since.

Jul 09, 2014 09:07 AM
rating: 0
 
gjhardy

Very happy to see three of my Scoresheet players on this list!

Jul 09, 2014 09:14 AM
rating: -2
 
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<< Previous Article
The 2010 Redraft (07/08)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Tra... (07/07)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Lea... (07/10)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Prog... (07/09)

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