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July 8, 2014

The 2010 Redraft

Is There Life Beyond Bryce?

by Baseball Prospectus


It's been just over four years since the 2010 draft, and we've gotten a good look at how that crop of highly touted amateurs has has performed in the pros. To see how much perceptions of those players have changed, we decided to do the draft over again, just as we did with the 2013 draft, the 2012 draft, and the 2011 draft. We assigned 32 picks to BP authors and re-drafted from scratch, selecting only from the pool of players who were drafted and signed in 2010 and ignoring team need. Here's how the first-round redraft shook out.

1:1 Washington Nationals
Actual Selection: Bryce Harper, OF
Draft Position Change: None
Explanation: I think there is a real case for Chris Sale at no. 1 (and I imagine there'd be one for Harvey if he wasn't hurt), but I have to stick with the chalk here. I remain firmly in the camp that sees Harper as an emerging superstar. His start hasn't been as fast as Mike Trout's, but holding anyone to that kind of standard is absolutely insane. The numbers Harper has put up at these ages are also historic, just not as monstrous. —Paul Sporer

1:2 Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual Selection: Jameson Taillon, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: Chris Sale, LHP, Chicago White Sox (2010 no. 13 pick)
Draft Position Change: +11
Explanation: Sure, there will always be injury concerns surrounding Sale as his mechanics make many people nervous but I can't ignore the skill set and the production. The White Sox were aggressive with Sale, and he landed in the bullpen before making the transition to dominant starter. The lefty has ace-level stuff and is posting ace-level production. —Mauricio Rubio

1:3 Baltimore Orioles
Actual Selection: Manny Machado, SS
Re-Draft Selection: Matt Harvey, RHP, New York Mets (2010 no. 7 pick)
Draft Position Change: +4
Explanation: I was super tempted to take Manny Machado here, but people forget that Harvey and Kershaw were going neck and neck for the NL Cy Young Award before Harvey’s injury. The dude is a tank; a true no. 1 starter. I couldn't pass that up at the no. 3 spot in this draft. —Chris Rodriguez

1:4 Kansas City Royals
Actual Selection: Christian Colon, SS
Re-Draft Selection: Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore Orioles (2010 no. 3 pick)
Draft Position Change: -1
Explanation: Though he may have slipped one spot in our simulation, Machado has only elevated his value since the 2010 draft. He has shortstop chops, playing the position for all but two games in the minors, and his quick transition to the hot corner transformed him into one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors. With burgeoning power that will continue to develop along with his pitch recognition, Machado has the potential to be an impact player on both sides of the ball, and in short order. The brutal knee injury from last September was a speed bump on the career path of an athlete who has the upside to be one of the best all-around players in the majors. —Doug Thorburn

1:5 Cleveland Indians
Actual Selection: Drew Pomeranz, LHP
Re-Draft Selection: Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves (2010 no. 70 pick)
Draft Position Change: +65
Explanation: Christian Yelich and a couple of the high-upside arms were tempting, but in the end Simmons and his glove won out. Getting the top defensive shortstop in the game here is fantastic value, and I believe that the bat will get better. —Chris King

1:6 Arizona Diamondbacks
Actual Selection: Barret Loux, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: Christian Yelich, OF, Florida Marlins (2010 no. 23 pick)
Draft Position Change: +17
Explanation: Yelich’s floor is too high to pass up, though Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon each would have made interesting targets had I not been a little wary of the potential long-term impact of their recent injuries. Yelich has a chance to grow into a regular .300 hitter who will provide positive value on the bases and in the field. He'll drive the gaps often enough to bring some slugging value to the table, and he could reach 20 home runs a year once he is fully matured. That's a solid first-division talent. —Nick J. Faleris

1:7 New York Mets
Actual Selection: Matt Harvey, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: Yasmani Grandal, C, San Diego Padres (2010 no. 12 pick, Reds)
Draft Position Change: +5
Explanation: In his 152-game career, Grandal has accrued 3.5 WARP and 30 framing/blocking runs. Petco-adjusted, his batting numbers stand right above league average, and he calls a solid game. I'm certainly taking safety over upside with some flashy yet-to-debut pitchers still on the board, but Grandal's on-base ability and receiving value might just match the future production of Walker, Taillon, or Noah Syndergaard. —Andrew Koo

1:8 Houston Astros
Actual Selection:
Delino DeShields, Jr., 2B
Re-Draft Selection: Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners (2010 no. 43 pick)
Draft Position Change: +35
Explanation: Walker's injury history gave me some pause here, but he's still one of my favorite pitching prospects, and he's getting the chance to hold his own in the majors as a 21-year-old. Walker's upside may fall just short of no. 1 status, but I think he has the stuff and athleticism to serve as King Felix's Robin for many years if he can stay on the mound. He's a different prospect in terms of repertoire now than when he was selected, but it's hard not to love his cutter. —Ben Carsley

1:9 San Diego Padres
Actual Selection:
Karsten Whitson, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (2010 no. 2 pick)
Draft Position Change: -7
Explanation: Thought to be a potential ace at the time of the 2010 draft, Taillon performed at a high level during his first couple of years in the professional ranks before a mild leveling off in 2013 as he reached the upper minors. It's difficult to pinpoint how much his eventual UCL tear played into that good but mildly disappointing 2013 performance, though in hindsight it may have been a warning sign. There is significant risk in taking a pitcher who is still early in the recovery process from Tommy John surgery with such a high pick. Given the historical success rate of recovery from the surgery and his very lofty ceiling, though, it was impossible to pass on Taillon in favor of a player who is already contributing at the major-league level. —Todd Gold

1:10 Oakland Athletics
Actual Selection:
Michael Choice, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers (2010 no. 44 pick)
Draft Position Change: +34
Explanation: It was a tough call between Castellanos and Syndergaard, but Castellanos remains one of the best pure hitters available in the draft. He certainly comes with question marks—his defense is at best a tick below average, and his plate discipline has to be filed in the lacking department. But he squares up balls incredibly well, as evidenced by his line drive rate of nearly 28 percent (fifth in MLB this year), which will lead to a future near-.300 hitter with the promise of 20-25 homer power. That will render his defensive misgivings secondary. —Brett Sayre

1:11 Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Selection:
Deck McGuire, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets (2010 no. 38 pick, Blue Jays)
Draft Position Change: +27
Explanation: An obvious call. Syndergaard has the highest upside of those remaining. He's struggled a bit in Triple-A, but otherwise he wouldn't have slipped to this point. —R.J. Anderson

1:12 Cincinnati Reds
Actual Selection:
Yasmani Grandal, C
Re-Draft Selection: Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (2010 no. 352 pick)
Draft Position Change: +340
Explanation: With five average-or-better tools, Pederson is going to be an everyday big-league contributor, and he could develop into a first-division player with a bit of growth in game power. There aren't many well-rounded position players left on the board, and Pederson is knocking on the door to The Show. —Daniel Rathman

1:13 Chicago White Sox
Actual Selection:
Chris Sale, LHP
Re-Draft Selection: Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (2010 no. 34 pick)
Draft Position Change: +21
Explanation: It's unlikely that Sanchez will end up becoming a true top-of-the-rotation guy, but the stuff is electric, even if the fastball command isn't. You need to have those kinds of skills even to be considered in that sort of sentence, and to some degree, pitchability can be learned. The only downside is that stats and scouting reports both say he has a long way to go to get there, as he’s walking more than five hitters per nine innings this season. Maybe the command never gets above average. Maybe he ends up being a back-of-the-bullpen arm. But with his work ethic and ability, he's still worth the risk in the middle of the first round. —Mike Ferrin

1:14 Milwaukee Brewers
Actual Selection:
Dylan Covey, LHP
Re-Draft Selection: Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Houston Astros (2010 no. 19 pick)
Draft Position Change: +5
Explanation: I thought about real life 13th-rounder A.J. Griffin and his Tommy John-repaired elbow, because the list of 2010 draftees who have actually thrown a 200-inning season and not embarrassed themselves is short enough. I thought about the good-but-not-spectacular pick that Kole Calhoun has become. Both would have been nice, safe picks, and perfectly justifiable to my rational side. However, that part of my brain was on vacation and unable to be reached. I know that some of the bloom is off the rose and that Foltynewicz might end up in the bullpen, but he has the gas and durability to be a high-strikeout starter—if the command and consistency show up together. I shouldn't be so tempted... —Russell Carleton

1:15 Texas Rangers
Actual Selection:
Jake Skole, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Drew Smyly, LHP, Detroit Tigers (2010 no. 68 pick)
Draft Position Change: +53
Explanation: In the middle of the round, I was looking for any type of major-league contributor or immediate value. Smyly was the name that came to mind. The flexibility of pitching out of the bullpen and in the rotation give him an advantage over most guys in this range. He features a fastball that works in the low 90s and all average or above secondaries to go along with it, which makes him a great value in this spot. —CJ Wittmann

1:16 Chicago Cubs
Actual Selection:
Hayden Simpson, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: A.J. Cole, RHP, Washington Nationals (2010 no. 116 pick)
Draft Position Change: +100
Explanation: Cole's stuff has steadily progressed since he signed, and he now sits on the cusp of getting a crack at The Show. His power arsenal, along with his strike-throwing ability, give him a good shot at sticking in a rotation over the long haul. It’s a profile I expected to get a lot of value out of considering how far we are into this round. —Chris Mellen

1:17 Tampa Bay Rays
Actual Selection:
Josh Sale, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Josh Rutledge, INF, Colorado Rockies (2010 no. 107 pick)
Draft Position Change: +90
Explanation: I have a difficult time passing on a guy who can play in the middle of the diamond with a strong batting average and solid power. Rutledge will never be a star, but if he can stay on the field, he should be a quality player on a contending team for years to come. —Mark Anderson

1:18 Los Angeles Angels
Actual Selection:
Kaleb Cowart, 3B
Re-Draft Selection: Corey Dickerson, OF, Colorado Rockies (2010 no. 260 pick)
Draft Position Change: +242
Explanation: At the risk of falling for the sort of misinformation I've spent my analytical life railing against (namely not taking stats at face value), Dickerson's stats have just been too good to ignore. And while some have saddled him with a terrible defensive reputation, there are some varied indicators suggesting that he might not be as bad as rumored; besides, there's a point at which a bat is so good, it really doesn't matter if an alchemist can transmute the glove or not. For two years—and arguably for his entire professional career—Dickerson has shown enough offense to suggest that he may reach that point in the major leagues. The strikeouts hint at lower batting averages than he's posted, but he has shown a great propensity for hard contact that should place him in the middle of somebody's lineup for many years to come. —Rob McQuown

1:19 Houston Astros
Actual Selection:
Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: James Paxton, LHP, Seattle Mariners (2010 no. 132 pick)
Draft Position Change: +113
Explanation: Paxton's predraft-and-redraft odyssey appears to have turned a first-round talent (and 2009 first-round pick) into a fourth-round value deserving of having Bud Selig announce his name again. The Canadian lefty sped through the low minors as you'd expect and, after some challenges at the higher levels, is off to a great start with the Mariners. The shoulder irritation is a cause for concern, but he's reportedly feeling good and on the way back. —Zachary Levine

1:20 Boston Red Sox
Actual Selection:
Kolbrin Vitek, 2B
Re-Draft Selection: Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels (2010 no. 264 pick)
Draft Position Change: +113
Explanation: Picking 14th, Russell Carleton passed on Calhoun, calling him “nice,” “safe,” “good-but-not-spectacular,” and “perfectly justifiable to my rational side.” Six selections later, with more upside off the board, I’m willing to bow to my rational side and settle for safety. Calhoun has a .300 career TAv and a .282 rest-of-season projection, which makes him an above-average hitter even for right field. He’s adequate in the field and on the bases, and while he’s already approaching 27, he should be able to hold down the no. 5 or no. 6 slot in the lineup (if not his current status as a somewhat unconventional power-hitting leadoff man) for a few years to come. While he may not be the stuff dream draft picks are made of, he’s almost certain not to be a nightmare, so I know I'll rest easy. —Ben Lindbergh

1:21 Minnesota Twins
Actual Selection:
Alex Wimmers, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox (2010 no. 143 pick)
Draft Position Change: +122
Explanation: He may not be your prototypical power-hitting third baseman, but a .300 career minor league batting average—and more importantly, a .400 career on-base percentage—are no joke. I'm not worried about his Triple-A struggles. The track record is strong enough. —Jeff Moore

1:22 Texas Rangers
Actual Selection:
Kellin Deglan, C
Re-Draft Selection: Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego Padres (2010 no. 59 pick)
Draft Position Change: +37
Explanation: Gyorko hasn't adjusted well to big-league pitching, but he did hit 23 homers in his rookie season and can adequately handle second base. Although there's swing-and-miss in his game and he's struggled to make consistent, hard contact, I refuse to believe he's this bad. Too much track record exists to think he's legitimately a sub-.200 hitter. He's rehabbing a foot injury, but when he returns, he'll look to live up to the potential that allowed him to crack the Top 101 Prospect List a year ago. —J.P. Breen

1:23 Florida Marlins
Actual Selection:
Christian Yelich, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Jesse Hahn, RHP, San Diego Padres (2010 no. 191 pick, Rays)
Draft Position Change: +168
Explanation: It is a small sample, but I like what I’ve seen from Hahn and am willing to roll the dice on his health since he's at the big-league level. He still needs to find a third offering but is doing more than just fine with his two-pitch arsenal that he can command. —Ron Shah

1:24 San Francisco Giants
Actual Selection:
Gary Brown, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Evan Gattis, C, Atlanta Braves (2010 no. 704 pick)
Draft Position Change: +680
Explanation: Sure, the Giants already own an All-Star catcher, but catching prospects are valuable assets. Gattis has burst onto the scene in 2014, showing terrific power and filling in admirably for the departed Brian McCann. While he may not continue to mash at such a torrid pace, he has already boosted his value enough to warrant a first-round selection. —Tucker Blair

1:25 St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Selection:
Zack Cox, 3B
Re-Draft Selection: Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers (2010 no. 64 pick)
Draft Position Change: +39
Explanation: Nelson has yet to establish himself at the major-league level, but he has demonstrated that he has the stuff to start long term, a question that dogged him entering the 2010 draft. Without significant MLB exposure, this is a bit of an upside play, but at this point I'll take that over some of the bits and pieces remaining. —Mark Anderson

1:26 Colorado Rockies
Actual Selection:
Kyle Parker, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Adam Eaton, OF, Chicago White Sox (2010 no. 571 pick, Diamondbacks)
Draft Position Change: +545
Explanation: It's been something of a bumpy ride at the major-league level for the undersized, perennially discounted Eaton, as the injury bug has played havoc with his development over the past couple seasons. Still, regardless of whether he ever reaches his offensive ceiling as a high-OBP gap hitter and stolen base threat, at 25 he's willed himself into becoming a legitimate big-league centerfielder; he currently sits 11th in FRAA and 26th in TAv. As either a second-division starter or strong fourth outfielder for a first-division club, I like the value here. —Wilson Karaman

1:27 Philadelphia Phillies
Actual Selection:
Jesse Biddle, LHP
Re-Draft Selection: A.J. Griffin, RHP, Oakland Athletics (2010 no. 395 pick)

Draft Position Change: +368
Explanation: In search of established big leaguers, Griffin is my pick here. Though he's on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery, he's already posted a 200-inning season. I don't mind getting a guy who has already been a back-end starter this late in the draft. —Ron Shah

1:28 Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Selection:
Zach Lee, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: Nick Kingham, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (2010 no. 117 pick)
Draft Position Change: +89
Explanation: As much as I value fastball command, I'm always happy to get a big, durable, mid-rotation power arm in the back of the first round, and Kingham seems like a great value here. I'm even holding out hope that we could see him bloom into even more than a 3-4 starter. —Al Skorupa

1:29 Los Angeles Angels
Actual Selection:
Cam Bedrosian, RHP
Re-Draft Selection: Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (2010 no. 486 pick)
Draft Position Change: +457
Explanation: Given that I’m taking over the Angels, it hurts to pass up some current major league third starters and ace relievers still on the board. Here, though, Virtual Tony Reagins attempts to save his job by taking the upside of the draft's youngest player. According to scouting reports, including our own Eyewitness Report from Jeff Moore, Pompey is a plus defender with a wide base of skills and relatively few holes in his game. Hopefully, he'll be enough to paper over the Angels' huge hole in center in relatively short order. —Ian Lefkowitz

1:30 Los Angeles Angels
Actual Selection:
Chevy Clark, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Brandon Workman, RHP, Boston Red Sox (2010 no. 57 pick)
Draft Position Change: +27
Explanation: Resisting the urge to pick a reliever for the Angels’ present-day bullpen, I opted for a solid SP prospect. Nothing super exciting, but a legitimate rotation candidate who can always go full-time as a reliever if needed. See, I got the Angels bullpen some help. —Harry Pavlidis

1:31 Tampa Bay Rays
Actual Selection:
Justin O'Conner, C
Re-Draft Selection: Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (2010 no. 941 pick)
Draft Position Change: +910
Explanation: While his power outburst over his first 137 at-bats is likely a mirage, Kiermaier plays a pretty center field and should field well enough to be a major-league starter. If he can hit at close to the level he’s maintained thus far, he'll be an above-average player. It's not flashy, but this late in the game, I'll take a surefire major leaguer. —Craig Goldstein

1:32 New York Yankees
Actual Selection:
Cito Culver, SS
Re-Draft Selection: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Oakland Athletics (2010 no. 5 pick, Indians)
Draft Position Change: -27
Explanation: While Pomeranz certainly isn't going to live up to his top-five billing, it's a surprise to see him fall this far among this savvy crowd. He has fewer than 200 major-league innings under his belt, and while Yankee Stadium doesn't help any pitcher, left-handers tend to fare better there than righties. I'll take him over Chase Whitley, David Phelps, or some of the other arms the Yankees have been forced to trot out to the mound of late. —Mike Gianella

Thanks to Nick Bacarella for formatting assistance.

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