CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Transaction Analysis: ... (03/28)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: We... (03/28)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Ye... (03/31)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Ye... (03/31)

March 31, 2014

My Model Portfolio

Two Aces

by Doug Thorburn


Process:
I tend to go with something resembling the stars-and-scrubs approach, mostly because I think that it's possible to identify “scrubs” who will be productive. It's no secret that I have an attachment to arms, and I always make a point to secure a pair of aces in my fantasy leagues, whether draft or auction.

The knock against pitchers is that they always get hurt, which tends to depress their value, and the injury-risk makes it all the more important to have two top-end guys at the top of my fantasy rotation—if one gets hurt then my season is not necessarily down the drain, because ace no. 2 can carry the weight. So my staff is top-heavy, after which it's time to go dumpster-diving, and I take great joy each fantasy season in identifying the cheap pitchers who will ascend to the next level. Oh, and sucks to closers—they are way too volatile to trust in a league where rosters are locked on Opening Day, so I'll just go ahead and aim for victories in the counting stats of Ks and Ws while sacrificing saves. My calculator says that two 15s and a 1 supersede the worth of a sixth-place finish in three categories, and the draft-and-lock setup changes the game in this case.

Hitters:

C

Matt Wieters

$10

1B

Albert Pujols

$20

2B

Jedd Gyorko

$8

3B

Pablo Sandoval

$5

SS

Everth Cabrera

$12

CI

Allen Craig

$14

MI

Ben Zobrist

$10

OF

Mike Trout

$46

OF

Yasiel Puig

$17

OF

Josh Hamilton

$12

OF

Mark Trumbo

$9

OF

Brett Gardner

$9

UT

Matt Adams

$6

UT

Christian Yelich

$4

Total

$182

I tend to drift toward categorical extremes as opposed to the supposed “five-category guys,” and my reasoning is simple: I know that Gardner is gonna steal bags, and I know that Trumbo is gonna hit bombs, but I can't know for sure that players like Rios/Pence/Venable are going to display equal doses of both skills in order to make an impact in those categories. Outside of the top-dollar guys, the multi-tool players could easily slip in either category, due to a wounded oblique, a busted hammy, or the possibility that 2013 was an outlier (*cough* Pence *cough*). Trout is the exception, which is why he is a must-own in this “Dream Team” format—the Angelfish is a five-category player on a historical level, and his impact in those categories makes him worth the heavy investment.

I'm also putting trust in his teammates that they can bounce back, and there is huge profit potential from a now-healthy Pujols and a Josh Hamilton that is just one year removed from a 43-homer season—it admittedly helps that they will frequently have Trout in scoring position in front of them. My draft actually started with the low-budget options such as Gyorko, Yelich, and Panda—players that will put up numbers for bargain basement prices. All told, I think that I have the five offensive categories well-covered, though my team is skewed towards risk/reward over stability; such has been my strategy for the last 15 years of fantasy ball, so I'm not about to change it up now.

Pitchers:

P

David Price

$21

P

Felix Hernandez

$21

P

Jordan Zimmermann

$14

P

Julio Teheran

$6

P

Shelby Miller

$6

P

Sonny Gray

$5

P

Jeff Samardzija

$3

P

Corey Kluber

$1

P

Lance Lynn

$1

Total

$78

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

2 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Transaction Analysis: ... (03/28)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: We... (03/28)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Ye... (03/31)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Ye... (03/31)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Cueto's Quirks
Premium Article Moonshot: Detecting the Best Medicine
Fantasy Article Interleague Report: Week 26
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: DFS and the State of Fant...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: September 22, 2014
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Circling Back to The Holy...
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: The Season's Most D...

MORE FROM MARCH 31, 2014
Premium Article Minor League Update: Spring Training Games o...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Angels Sign Baseball's...
Premium Article The Miguel Cabrera Extension
The Week in Quotes: March 24-30
Fantasy Article Interleague Report: Week One
Daily League Strategy: Opening Day Lineup
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Yes, I Paid for Trout

MORE BY DOUG THORBURN
2014-04-18 - TINSTAAPP: TINSTAAP Episode 20: Sonny Gray v...
2014-04-11 - Premium Article Raising Aces: Starting Pitcher Four-Pack
2014-04-04 - Premium Article Raising Aces: The Aces of Opening Day
2014-03-31 - Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Two Aces
2014-03-28 - Premium Article Raising Aces: Out on a Limb: 2014 Pitcher Pr...
2014-03-21 - Raising Aces: Bush League: Eddie Butler, Tyl...
2014-03-14 - Premium Article Raising Aces: Bush League: Jonathan Gray
More...

MORE MY MODEL PORTFOLIO
2014-07-22 - Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Three-and-a-Half Months ...
2014-03-31 - Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Yes, I Paid for Trout
2014-03-31 - Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Two Aces
2014-03-28 - Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Well Played, Mauer
2014-03-28 - Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: The Rare "Spend More on ...
2014-03-28 - Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Stars and Scrubs
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2014-04-18 - TINSTAAPP: TINSTAAP Episode 20: Sonny Gray v...