CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast... (01/31)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (01/24)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (02/07)
Next Article >>
BP Experts Prospect Mo... (01/31)

January 31, 2014

Fantasy Players to Avoid

Second Basemen

by BP Fantasy Staff


For previous editions of this series, click below:

The BP Fantasy Staff doesn’t want your dreams of fantasy success to become a hellish reality of mediocrity in the standings this season. So, maybe don’t draft these guys. You can do better. You deserve better.

Jose Altuve, Astros
The idea that steals are overvalued in mixed leagues is an overblown one, but in some cases the old canard applies, and it most certainly applies with Altuve. His extremely high ground-ball rate combined with his diminutive size is likely to always limit Altuve’s power potential and he is fairly underwhelming as a hitter. On a better major-league team, Altuve might be worth owning for his ability to score runs, but the Astros offense is a liability from a fantasy perspective and this isn’t something that is likely to change in 2014. In an -only league, by all means chase those steals, but in other formats, exercise caution. —Mike Gianella

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
Let’s make one thing clear: I may have targeted Neil Walker, but I’m not under the illusion that he’s better than Carpenter. That said, while the skills are better for Carpenter, I don’t think the gulf is as dramatic as it may seem. Both are contact oriented, non-speed types. Carpenter has a bit more pop and benefits from playing in a much stronger lineup, but his major value came from an absurd number of runs scored. Part of that was due to the Cardinals across the board incredible hitting with RISP, and while they’re still a great lineup, we can count on some regression there. Carpenter also excelled in RBI, another context-driven stat that is subject to variability. While there’s a strong argument that the context remains largely similar for Carpenter, thus the numbers should play out similarly, I always prefer to gamble on skills than situation. With the price you’re going to have to pay for Carpenter coming off his incredible season, you’re better off targeting a poor man’s version of him at a significantly reduced price. —Craig Goldstein

Howie Kendrick, Angles
If it feels like forever ago that you read your first article about Howie Kendrick's breakout potential, that's because it probably was. He's been playing in the majors since 2006. He's 30 years old now. I'm going to write that again, because it's important: he's thirty years old now. At a certain point players are who they are, and perhaps nobody in Major League Baseball exemplifies this quite like Kendrick. A former 10th-round pick from an unheralded Florida community college, Kendrick laid total and absolute waste to some of the most hitter-friendly environments in the minor leagues on his way to Anaheim. His career minor-league triple-slash line of .360/.403/.569 in over 1,750 plate appearances is the stuff of legend, and the helium it generated lasts arguably to this day. I don’t want to discount his contributions since those heady days, as Kendrick has been a fine and steady performer for many years now, and that has value. Over the past five seasons, he's hit between .279 and .297 every season and averaged exactly 11.8 homeruns and 11.8 steals a year. Fine numbers, but... well... kinda boring in fantasy baseball. He's never quite taken that leap we thought might be coming, and at this point in his career the odds are getting awfully long that he ever will. He finished 15th among second basemen last season and is currently going off the board 13th for 2014. The limited ceiling coupled with that draft position doesn’t leave much room to generate value, and that’s what you want to be doing once you hit the middle rounds of a draft. I’d just as soon look elsewhere for a better opportunity at the keystone. —Wilson Karaman

Daniel Murphy, Mets
I owned Murphy last season. Murphy was great last season. But that was last season. According to the most recent NFBC ADP, he’s the no. 10 second baseman, ahead of Aaron Hill, Chase Utley, and Neil Walker. I prefer all three to Murphy, whose value was enhanced by 23 stolen bases, up from 10 in 2012. If he repeats and steals 20 more, I’m going to look stupid for avoiding the Mets’ second baseman. But steals are the ultimate wild card; even if I give him 15, that’s a 35 percent decrease and he’ll need to make up for it by beating last year’s 92 runs and 78 RBI. With a .121 ISO and a 31 percent fly-ball rate since the start of 2012, double-digit home runs aren’t even a sure thing. I believe Murphy can reproduce a .286 BA, but I’d be much more excited to own him if he filled out my MI spot. I’m not about to pay for last season. —Alex Kantecki

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

11 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast... (01/31)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (01/24)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (02/07)
Next Article >>
BP Experts Prospect Mo... (01/31)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
The Call-Up: George Springer
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, Apr...
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Every Manager's Face: The Ne...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Cueto in Control
Premium Article What Scouts Are Saying: April 17, 2014
Premium Article Notes from the Field: Carolina League Notes ...
Overthinking It: Lessons We Learned Yesterda...

MORE FROM JANUARY 31, 2014
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: The Basebal...
Premium Article Raising Aces: The Evolution of Pitching Mech...
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Opt-Out Hater's Case for...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Mariners Sign Rusty Ba...
BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft: Rounds 5-7
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Second Basemen
The BP Wayback Machine: Which Players and Te...

MORE BY BP FANTASY STAFF
2014-02-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Shortstops
2014-02-04 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Discussion
2014-02-03 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Target: Shortstops
2014-01-31 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Second Basemen
2014-01-24 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: First Basemen
2014-01-23 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Target: First Basemen
2014-01-17 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Catchers
More...

MORE FANTASY PLAYERS TO AVOID
2014-02-21 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Outfielders
2014-02-14 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Third Basemen
2014-02-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Shortstops
2014-01-31 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Second Basemen
2014-01-24 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: First Basemen
2014-01-17 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Catchers
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2014-02-21 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Outfielders
2014-02-14 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Third Basemen
2014-02-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Shortstops