CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

No Previous Article
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Can Of Corn: Elite Pit... (07/09)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Can Of Corn: Minor Lea... (07/23)
No Next Article

July 17, 2003

Can Of Corn

The Others

by Dayn Perry

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

As you'll recall, last week we took a gander at the minor-league careers of today's elite pitchers. This time around, it's the less-than-stellar crowd that gets the once-over.

Last week, the study population included those starters who had pitched at least 1,000 innings at the major-league level as of the end of the 2002 season while maintaining a park-adjusted ERA+ (the pitcher's ERA relative to the league average) of at least 110. That is, their career park-adjusted ERA is at least 10 percent better than the league average over that same span. Thrown in for good measure were those young hurlers who'd thrown at least 500 innings in the bigs while posting a park-adjusted ERA+ of at least 120. Now, we'll meander to the other end of the quality continuum and look at something I like to call Group B: all active pitchers who have, as of the end of the 2002 season, pitched at least 500 innings and posted a park-adjusted ERA+ of 95 or less (at least five percent worse than the league average). Just like last time, I've attempted to isolate those minor-league innings that are developmental in nature--i.e., not an injury rehab assignment or late-career retread work.

Here are the minor-league cumulatives for those confined to the hinterlands of Group B:


               MLB              Minor League Statistics
Pitcher        ERA     IP    K/BB     K/9     BB/9    HR/9     ERA
------------------------------------------------------------------
Anderson, J.    86    755     1.7     6.8     4.0     0.4     3.55
Baldwin, J.     92    756     2.2     8.6     3.9     0.8     3.37
Banks, W.       90    756     1.3     7.0     5.5     0.4     3.79
Bere, J.        86    422     2.0     8.6     4.2     0.3     2.65
Castillo, F.    94    481     4.3     8.2     1.9     0.5     2.75
Clement, M.     93    726     2.1     9.0     4.3     0.4     3.57
Dempster, R.    89    484     2.4     7.8     3.3     1.0     3.85
Estes, S.       94    442     1.7     9.0     5.2     0.5     4.36
Hamilton, J.    95    327     2.0     6.2     3.2     0.3     3.44
Haney, C.       90    417     2.2     7.0     3.2     0.5     3.50
Hawkins, L.     90    827     2.7     7.1     2.6     0.5     3.45
Haynes, J.      87    893     2.8     8.8     3.1     0.7     3.13
Hernandez, L.   92    228     1.8     7.9     4.5     0.9     4.35
Hitchcock, S.   91    649     3.3     9.2     2.8     0.4     2.95
Jarvis, K.      77    653     2.6     6.9     2.7     0.6     3.45
Johnson, J.     88    704     2.6     7.6     3.0     0.6     3.78
Jones, B.J.     94    348     3.9     7.9     2.0     0.4     2.72
Lima, J.        87    777     3.1     7.4     2.4     1.0     4.14
Loaiza, E.      95    605     2.4     6.5     2.8     0.6     3.56
Mahomes, P.     83    851     1.8     8.9     5.0     0.5     3.13
Meadows, B.     82    533     2.7     5.6     2.1     0.8     4.02
Miceli, D.      91    243     2.7     11.1    4.2     0.6     3.19
Mlicki, D.      92    526     2.1     8.6     4.1     0.7     3.78
Mulholland, T.  94    707     1.4     5.9     4.4     0.4     3.70
Oliver, D.      94    324     1.9     9.1     4.7     0.2     2.50
Parque, J.      93    120     2.0     8.4     4.3     0.8     3.38
Pavano, C.      93    566     3.4     8.1     2.4     0.6     3.01
Rekar, B.       88    583     3.0     7.1     2.4     0.8     3.91
Rusch, G.       89    654     3.4     7.7     2.3     0.6     3.47
Springer, D.    88   1486     1.8     6.0     3.4     0.8     3.99
Sturtze, T.     90    969     1.4     5.8     4.1     0.7     4.38
Van Poppel, T.  81    293     1.3     8.1     6.1     0.3     4.02
Villone, R.     92    278     1.6     10.2    6.4     0.6     3.56
Weathers, D.    93    720     1.8     6.3     3.6     0.3     3.54
Wilson, P.      90    331     3.6     8.8     2.5     0.4     3.24
Witasick, J.    93    594     2.9     9.6     3.3     0.7     3.44
Woodard, S.     92    522     4.1     7.3     1.8     0.6     3.60
Wright, Jam.    93    471     1.8     6.3     3.5     0.3     3.55
Wright, Jar.    88    342     1.8     8.9     4.9     0.5     2.90

Now, a comparison of the two groups' cumulative minor-league numbers. Remember, at the major-league level A = good, B = bad.


                     Minor League Statistics
Group    Mi IP    K/BB    K/9   BB/9   HR/9    ERA
--------------------------------------------------
A       12,657    2.00   7.50   3.74   0.48   3.38
B       22,363    2.17   7.58   3.49   0.57   3.55

While perhaps not as shocking as the fact that Krokus is still touring, these results are nonetheless surprising. Group B, whose collective major-league performance was manifestly inferior to that of Group A, fared better in the minors in several key measures. In fact, Group B outdoes A in the stathead trinity of pitching indicators: K/BB, K/9 and BB/9.

Other musings on the data:

  • 22.5% (nine of 40) of the pitchers in Group B posted a career K/BB ratio in the minors of 3.0 or better; in Group A, only 14.8% (four of 27) did.
  • While 65 percent of Group B pitchers managed a K/BB ratio of at least 2.0, that's the case for only 37 percent of Group A.
  • Last week's results hinted at a possible correlation between minor-league home-run rates and major-league success. It's one of the two areas in which Group A was superior, although the variance isn't particularly striking. Still, there may be something to it.
  • Predictably, Group A pitchers spent less developmental time in the minors than those of group B (468.8 innings on average against 559.1 innings on average).
  • You'd be hard-pressed to find two pitchers with better minor-league dossiers than Steve Woodard or Frank Castillo.
  • Is hits-per-nine a better augury of major-league success? Group A's lower ERA in tandem with its inferior peripherals suggests an advantage in hit rate. Sounds like something to look into for next week...

0 comments have been left for this article.

No Previous Article
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Can Of Corn: Elite Pit... (07/09)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Can Of Corn: Minor Lea... (07/23)
No Next Article

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Prospectus Review: 'That Foul Tip Had Better...
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Starving Young Royals, Bat...
Eyewitness Accounts: September 17, 2014
Premium Article What You Need to Know: September 17, 2014
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Streaming Strikeouts
The Lineup Card: Eight Memorable Final-Week ...
Premium Article Skewed Left: How to Change Things When Chang...

MORE FROM JULY 17, 2003
Prospectus Triple Play: Anaheim Angels, Chic...
Premium Article Prospecting: Cleveland Rocks
Premium Article Under The Knife: AL Mid-Season Health Report
On the Mendoza Line

MORE BY DAYN PERRY
2003-08-06 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: Minor League Power, Part II
2003-07-31 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: Minor League Power
2003-07-23 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: Minor League Hit Rates
2003-07-17 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: The Others
2003-07-09 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: Elite Pitchers' Minor League Ca...
2002-12-12 - Prospectus Feature: Freely Available Talent
More...

MORE CAN OF CORN
2003-08-06 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: Minor League Power, Part II
2003-07-31 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: Minor League Power
2003-07-23 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: Minor League Hit Rates
2003-07-17 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: The Others
2003-07-09 - Premium Article Can Of Corn: Elite Pitchers' Minor League Ca...
More...