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April 11, 2013

BP Unfiltered

32 Predictions Contest Response Summary

by Sky Kalkman

A total of 694 people entered the 32 Predictions contest, including Ben Lindbergh and me, but not including the nine of you who didn't leave a name and the 10 of you who entered after the deadline. Those weren't good strategies for winning.

Sixty-nine percent of you thought Ben would score better than I would, which, frankly, is pretty insulting. He did enter before me, so he owns the tie-breaker.

The most lopsided question was Runs + RBI by Bryce Harper over Carlos Beltran at 96% to 4%. There were five questions within 51/49, and the only 50/50 question was James Shields Wins vs Wil Myers HRs

Below is a list of frequencies for every question, sorted most to least lopsided. Some participants decided not to answer every question, which, again, wasn't a good strategy.

Q# More Popular   Less Popular  
Q4 RBI + Runs by 20-year old Bryce Harper 96% RBI + Runs by 36-year old Carlos Beltran 4%
Q10 SOs by Stephen Strasburg 94% SOs by Pedro Alvarez 6%
Q30 Tim Lincecum's actual ERA 93% Tim Lincecum's projected PECOTA ERA of 3.04 7%
Q23 PA by Giancarlo Stanton for the Marlins 92% PA*2.5 by Giancarlo Stanton NOT for the Marlins 8%
Q19 Swings and misses by Marco Scutaro 90% Bases stolen on Yadier Molina 10%
Q25 TAv by Anthony Rizzo 82% TAv by Yonder Alonso 18%
Q27 K-BB for Jesus Montero 82% K-BB for Michael Pineda 18%
Q12 MLB hitters suspended for PED use 73% MLB pitchers suspended for PED use 27%
Q5 BBs by Jeff Francoeur 72% BBs by Mariano Rivera 28%
Q22 Outs made by Michael Young 71% Outs made by Delmon Young 29%
Q32 Correct answers by Ben Lindbergh 69% Correct answers by Sky Kalkman 31%
Q3 Adam Dunn's three true outcomes rate 66% Craig Kimbrel's strikeout rate 34%
Q1 WARP by Mike Trout 64% WARP by Miguel Cabrera 36%
Q9 Managerial changes in August-September 64% Managerial changes in April-July 36%
Q16 HRs by any two other Yankees 64% HRs +10 by Robinson Cano 36%
Q31 IP by Dustin McGowan 63% HRs by Ben Revere 37%
Q15 Matt Cain’s FIP-ERA 63% Zack Greinke's ERA-FIP 37%
Q21 Most runs scored by one team in  9-inn G 62% Most times caught stealing by any one player 38%
Q26 SLG*10 by cheating Melky Cabrera 61% ERA by cheating Bartolo Colon 39%
Q13 First time MVP and Cy Young winners 60% Repeat MVP and Cy Young winners 40%
Q14 Games played by the concussed Carlos Santana 58% Games played by the concussed Justin Morneau 42%
Q17 TB+BB by beard champion Jayson Werth 58% TB+BB by beard champion Josh Reddick 42%
Q11 SLG by Brendan Ryan 57% OBP by Brendan Ryan 43%
Q18 SOs by the 6'5" starter Clayton Richard 57% SOs by the 5'7" reliever Tim Collins 43%
Q6 BPro's Top 101 hitting prospects to get MLB PA 57% BPro's Top 101 pitching prospects to get MLB out 43%
Q7 MVP voting points for Matt Wieters 55% MVP voting points for Ben Zobrist 45%
Q29 Average speed of Felix Hernandez's curveball 54% Average speed of R.A. Dickey's fastball 46%
Q24 Most wins by an Astros starting pitcher 51% Most losses by a Nationals starting pitcher 49%
Q2 HRs by B.J. and Justin Upton 51% SBs by B.J. and Justin Upton 49%
Q20 AVG by Albert Pujols 51% OBP by Alexei Ramirez 49%
Q28 IP by Roberto "Fausto Carmona" Hernandez 51% IP by Scott Kazmir 49%
Q8 Wins by James Shields 50% HRs by Wil Myers 50%

I calculated a groupthink score for each entry by averaging the overall popularities of each of the entry's choices. A higher number means an entry looks more like the consensus entry (non-answers counted as the average, 59.3%, which is also then the average groupthink score across all entries.) The most groupthink entry belongs to oltarzewskt1 at 65.8%, and the least conforming entry (by far) goes to Scott Pelarski at 44.3%. My entry is 59.0% groupthink, Ben's is 61.2% (what a hack).

You can find a full list of entries here, sorted by time of entry, with Ben's entry and my entry at the top. It includes the groupthink score, too.

Thanks for entering. I have a lot of fun with this contest every year. I may post standings part way through the season, or November may be the next time you hear about this, when the free year of Baseball Prospectus is handed out to the winner.

Sky Kalkman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sky's other articles. You can contact Sky by clicking here

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Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (04/10)
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BP Unfiltered: Fujikaw... (04/10)
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BP Unfiltered: Chris Y... (04/11)
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Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (04/11)

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