Houston Astros
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Disastrous Performer: “Bad”
Ausmus never has much chance of being even an
average catcher offensively, but this is
ridiculous. Ausmus recently pulled into the lead in the race for worst regular catcher in the majors (as rated by VORP), underpowering the likes of Michael
Barrett and Brandon
Inge. He isn’t even the best
regular catcher in the Astros’ system; >John
Buck has been posting Einaresque
stats at Triple-A, and even the Round Rock tandem has fared
better.Why do clubs put up with bats like these? Defense,
natch. Inge is supposed to be a great defender,
despite a mixed major-league
track record, and anyway, the Tigers traded away their
only other option. Barrett doesn’t have (or
deserve) a glovely reputation, so Brian
Schneider has grabbed at-bats and stated his case for the starter’s job.Which brings us to Ausmus. He’s always been a
top-notch defender
against the run, and this year’s 39% CS rate
matches his career exactly. Like with any catcher with
a good rep, he’s supposed to do wonders with the
pitching staff. But does he?-
Roy
Oswalt: ERA up slightly, double the expected
unearned runs push his RA half a run above his career
mark. -
Wade
Miller: ERA about a run over his career mark
even without his injury-shortened outing (two runs in
1/3 inning). -
Jeriome
Robertson: Adjusted RA of 6.51 as a starter, a
small improvement over last year, and well in line
with his minor-league track record. -
Tim
Redding: Adjusted ERA of 3.84, a big
improvement over his career at any level.
Among the top four starters, that’s two disappointments,
one doing about as expected, and a 25-year-old turning
the corner. Overall, the rotation’s adjusted RA is 5.23–it was 4.43
last year, 5.12
the year before. For his ball-handling skills to
offset his bat, the pitching staff’s ‘true’ ERA would
have to be around 6, which can’t be the case.If Ausmus doesn’t help the pitchers, and he’s hitting
even less than usual, what’s the point? -
Roy
-
Draft: Houston lost their first-round pick to
the Giants when Jeff
Kent fell
into their lap. While that’s worked out a lot
better than wasting a pick on a guy like Mike
Magnante, the club was still stuck without a first
round pick. In the second round they took juco pitcher
Jason Hirsh.The club’s next three picks were center fielders
from a variety of levels. After watching several
uninspiring defenders there over the last few years,
you can understand their focus. However, it’s still
unclear whether third-round pick Drew
Stubbs will go pro, or report to the University of
Texas. -
Amazing game: On
May 31st, after 15 scoreless innings which saw
almost as many Cubbie whiffs (22) as combined
baserunners (24), Kent booted a Corky
Sosa grounder, allowing the winning run to
score. But perhaps the most amazing part was when
radio broadcasters named home plate umpire Bruce
Dreckman player of the game. Uh, guys? Umpires are not
players? Ah, never mind. -
Schedule: Now that the Astros have assumed the
division lead, they embark on a brutal interleague
trip to New York and Boston. Usually a club calls up a
bat like Jason
Lane to take advantage of the DH spot, but
don’t expect any roster moves. The DH should allow
Jimy Williams to get Morgan
Ensberg’s bat into the lineup while indulging
in his fetish for Geoff
Blum’s glove. (We’re still awaiting an
explanation of how Blum’s glove could possibly
offset an OPS advantage of more
than a pitcher…no doubt the old school is
involved.)
Milwaukee
Brewers
-
Marketing Madness: The Brewers have decided to
play off the foul play of the team’s Royce
Claytons and offer fans the promise of
guaranteed foul balls. For $36, the Brewers will
guarantee fans leave Miller Park with either a foul
ball or a ball used during a game. “One of the great
thrills for a baseball fan is to leave the ballpark
with a ball used during the game,” Jim Bathey,
assistant vice president in charge of ticket sales,
said recently. What, Keith
Osik isn’t thrilling enough?The tickets, in the outfield boxes at field level,
come with a voucher that can be redeemed for a
game-used baseball. The promotion started Friday
against the Red Sox and will run intermittently
throughout the season. Despite the promotion and the
team’s first interleague game of the year, against the
star-studded Sox no less, the Brewers drew just 20,195
fans, a modest increase over the team’s average
attendance of 16,993 heading into Friday’s game.
Attendance was down 25% through 29 home dates heading
into Friday’s game. -
Streaking: You can’t blame the team’s
attendance woes on their recent play. The Brewers had
won six of their last seven and seven of nine
following Friday’s 9-3 win over Boston. Before heading home to play the Sox, Milwaukee had
enjoyed one of its best road trips in years, taking
two out of three in San Diego, two out of three in
L.A., and going two for two against the Mets at Shea
Stadium (rain washed out the start of the series). Of course that was before Kevin Millar struck for three homers in five at-bats Saturday and Sunday, netting the Sox two straight wins to take the series 2-1. - Hot Hot Heat: Richie Sexson has asserted himself as one of the best first basemen in baseball this season. A recent hot streak has helped cement his status among the elite. Sexson has hit safely in six straight games through Sunday; he cranked three homers and a double over a recent four-game stretch in L.A. and New York. After dropping from 45 to 29 homers from 2001 to 2002 (while jumping from 24 to 37 doubles), Sexson has seen more balls clear the fence again this year. Through Sunday Sexson stood tied for second in major league homers, tied with Carlos Delgado with 19, while trailing Adam Dunn by one–Sexson’s on pace for 50 bombs. He’s hiked his walk rate as well, with 37 through 61 games, on pace for a career-high 98. Sexson leads the NL in VORP for first basemen at 17.1, trailing only Delgado and Mike Sweeney in the big leagues.
-
Cold Draft: Most observers applauded the Brew Crew’s selection of Southern University 2B Rickie Weeks with the second pick in the draft. Weeks hit .483 with 17 homers and became the
second player in Division I history to lead the nation
in batting average for two straight seasons. He also stole 31 bases without being caught this season, 65 in 66 tries over his collegiate career. Weeks has been almost universally praised for his tools, a double-edged sword; he’ll need to ratchet up his plate discipline and improve his defense to make and excel in the majors. Still, Weeks was considered such a slam dunk that several prospect hounds rated him as the top player on their draft boards.Draftniks were far less impressed with the Brewers’ second-round pick, San Diego State OF Anthony Gwynn. A spray hitter known for speed and defense, Gwynn has shown little power while posting less-than-overwhelming walk rates. If you’re Tony Gwynn and can hit .330 every year in the majors, that formula can work. We’ll see if TGwynn’s son can do the same–whispers around draft day pegged Anthony Gwynn as a reach driven by name value. Granted, the Brewers drafted Cecil Fielder‘s son Prince Fielder in the first round last year. But Prince can mash, as he showed in high school and has continued to show this year–he’s posted a .325 Minor League EqA this season, among the leaders in the Midwest League. Though whispers of nepotism didn’t pop up in the Brewers’ later rounds, several of the club’s picks were seen as reaches given expected draft slots.
This raises an interesting philosophical question: If Weeks becomes a star and no else pans out, how do you grade the Brewers’ 2003 draft? Readers?
Oakland Athletics
-
Draft Recap: The last few seasons, the Oakland
Athletics have built their highly effective draft
strategy the past few years on the theory that high
school hurlers are as likely to reach their potential
as Cecil “The Glacier” Fielder is to reach on a drag
bunt. Judging from the 2003 MLB First-Year Player
Draft completed last week, the rest of the league is
beginning to follow Oakland’s lead with regards to
high school players, especially pitchers. While
prognosticating the fortunes of the players drafted
last week is as dubious an idea as taping
yourself as a Jedi on the school video camera,
looking more closely at whom the A’s acquired confirms
their stated draft strategies and provides insight as
to some players who should be moving up through the
Oakland system in the next year or two.-
Brad Sullivan (RHP, Houston) posted a 1.82
ERA and a 13-1 record. How did he slip to the A’s at
#25? Because he posted that line in 2002. In 2003,
he was 6-7 with a 2.71 ERA. For those paying attention though, he
maintained his strong K/9 numbers (11.4) and kept his
walks down. After a stellar performance for Team USA
last summer, Sullivan was overshadowed by his Houston
teammate Ryan Wagner (selected 14th by the Reds) who
posted a ludicrous 16.7 K/9. Sullivan’s unfortunate
W-L record is nothing but a run of bad luck at the
perfect time for the A’s. Houston’s
strong schedule and Sullivan’s large data sample
size make him a safer bet than other pitchers
available. Look for him to advance quickly through
the A’s minor league system and further clog the
Sacramento and Midland rotations with top-flight
pitching prospects. -
Brian Snyder (3B, Stetson) was among the
Division I leaders with a .504 OBP and 45 walks. It’s
no surprise that he posted extremely similar numbers
(.508, 50) in 2002. Detractors point to Snyder’s lack
of power, but though his home runs declined from 14 to
10, his other extra-base hits increased from 17 to 25,
a strong indicator of power to come in the future. The
Blue Jays were reported to be very interested in
Snyder before the draft, and it’s likely that the A’s
could have taken him with a later pick if J.P.
Ricciardi wasn’t flying the great ship SkyDome. -
Omar Quintanilla (SS, Texas) is an
intriguing pick because his offensive numbers stand
out very distinctly from the rest of the top eight
hitters the A’s drafted. Unfortunately, they don’t
stand out in a good way. Quintanilla has registered a
mere 28 free passes the last two seasons combined with
OBPs of .379 and .408. He has shown slight power
potential with 21 and 16 XBA, but he’ll have to
improve these numbers significantly before he ascends
the minor league ladder. Perhaps this was a budget
pick, considering the $9 million it took to sign last year’s
draft class, but the reasons for drafting Quintanilla
at this point are unclear. -
The A’s second round pick, Andre Ethier (CF,
Arizona State) also bears watching. Ethier was
actually drafted by the A’s out of Chandler-Gilbert CC
two years ago on a flyer in the 37th round, but
instead became a Sun Devil for two years. While his
31 BB, .463 OBP, and 21 XBA in 2002 were impressive,
his 51, .487, and 25 in 2003 were a significant
improvement, especially when noting that those
additional XBHs were HRs. Considering the quality of
play in the Pac-10, Ethier’s numbers become even more
impressive, and he could move up to high-A ball very
quickly.
Other players to keep an eye out for in a couple
years: Vasili Spanos (3B, Indiana; .513 OBP)
and Luke Appert (2B, Minnesota; 27
2Bs) taken in the 11th and sixth rounds,
respectively. In total, the A’s stuck by their now
well-publicized draft strategy of taking college
players; the A’s drafted but one high schooler on the
first day of the draft with their 21st pick overall,
though they did take a couple fliers on high school
pitchers on Day 2. Though none of these picks have
garnered the same publicity that players like
Delmon Young and Rickie Weeks, they
conform well to the A’s low-risk, low-cost draft
strategy that is keeping the farm well stocked with
replacements for departing free agents and fodder for
Billy Beane’s trades. -
Brad Sullivan (RHP, Houston) posted a 1.82
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