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January 7, 2013

The Keeper Reaper

Second, Short, and Catcher for 1/7/13

by Josh Shepardson

Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves
Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): No
Deep (90 Keepers): Fringe
NL-only (60 Keepers): Fringe
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Yes

McCann had a down year in 2012 but still managed to reach 20 home runs for the fifth straight season. He retained his plate discipline but finished with an ugly .230 average. His BABIP was well below his career mark, yet his batted ball data fell right in line with his norms. This would seem to indicate he was unlucky last year and should rebound this year, but it isn't that cut and dry.

McCann played through a frayed labrum and cyst last year and received multiple cortisone shots to stay on the field. He underwent surgery on October 16 for which there is a four-to-six month recovery timetable. In late October, shortly after McCann's surgery, Braves general manager Frank Wren said he was hopeful he'd miss only the first few weeks of the season. Even if he is able to fulfill Wren's hopes, it's unclear how long he'll need to round into previous form or if he'll be able to return to his previous level of play at all. McCann's keeper worthiness varies greatly from team-to-team and is largely dependent on the number of health risks already being kept.

Ian Desmond | Washington Nationals
Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): Fringe
Deep (90 Keepers): Yes
NL-only (60 Keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Yes

Desmond enjoyed a breakout season last year, finishing in the top 50 in player rankings and fifth at the shortstop position. He blended power (25 home runs) and speed (21 stolen bases) with a career-high .292 average, offering a bit of everything to his fantasy owners. He was very efficient in his base-stealing, getting caught just six times in 27 attempts (77.8 percent success rate). It's likely that he'll eclipse 20 stolen bases once again this year, but I'm less bullish on his home run and batting average output in 2013.

The 25 home runs he hit in 547 plate appearances last year were three more than he hit in his first 1,302 plate appearances in the majors. Desmond is approaching his peak power years, so some gains last year were to be expected, but the leap his HR/FB rate took looks fluky to me. I'd expect a few more of his flies to stay in the yard this year, and that will have a trickledown effect on his batting average if those fly balls find gloves.