December 17, 2012

Resident Fantasy Genius

Assessing Recent Pitching Moves

by Derek Carty

I spent Thursday catching up on the speedsters that were on the move this offseason. Today, I’ll put all the major pitching deals under the microscope.

Zack Greinke | Signed with Dodgers | SP
Los Angeles is a much better landing spot than Texas would have been for Greinke’s value, so he gets an up arrow. He returns to the easier league and will pitch in a pitcher-friendly-ish park. His supposed inclination toward returning to being a fly-ball pitcher is a bit odd and may be the subject of a future article. In any case, he’ll have a potentially loaded offense supporting him and figures to be one of the top fantasy options during 2013 drafts.

James Shields | Rays to Royals | SP
Shields loses quite a bit in the move from the Rays to the Royals. The league and park move is pretty much a lateral one, but he loses the support of one of the best defenses in the game (not to mention a very good offense) and one that was capable of turning a lot of his balls in play into outs. Though new target-setter Salvador Perez is a good defender in his own right, Shields loses Jose Molina, who is perhaps the best in baseball.

Wade Davis | Rays to Royals | SP
Davis’ value shift depends entirely upon what you believed his role would be entering 2013. Some thought he’d be a starter even if he weren’t traded, in which case Tampa Bay would have been ideal for all the reasons mentioned in Shields’ blurb. If you thought he was just going to be a back-end reliever again, though, then a move to the Royals is a welcome one. He’ll still get the benefits of a pitcher’s park in the American League while getting to take the mound every fifth day. In any case, Davis is a solid sleeper for next season.

Alex Cobb | Rays | SP
With Shields gone, Cobb becomes the odds-on favorite to be Tampa Bay’s fifth starter this season. He’ll deal with competition from Chris Archer, Alexander Torres, and the newly acquired Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery, but Cobb has long been a favorite of mine and stands to benefit from the deal.

Jake Odorizzi | Royals to Rays | SP
It was becoming clear that Royals didn’t see Odorizzi in their 2013 plans given their activity in the starter market this winter, so while he’ll have to battle for a spot in Tampa Bay, it at least remains more of a possibility than it was in Kansas City. He appears to be sixth or seventh on the totem pole at present, so a few starts midseason remain a strong possibility.

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