Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/16)
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October 16, 2012 Playoff ProspectusALCS Game Three Preview: Yankees vs. TigersThere’s being down 2-0 after two home games in a best-of-seven series, and then there’s being down 2-0 after two home games in a best-of-seven series with the reigning Cy Young winner and MVP on the mound against you in Game Three. That’s the scenario the Yankees are facing. Do they stand a chance? Here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for Game Three: Yankees (Phil Hughes) vs. Tigers (Justin Verlander) – 8:00 p.m. ET Projected Starting Lineups
It should come as no surprise that PECOTA expects the Tigers to win behind their ace and push the Yankees to the brink of elimination. They will, after all, be sending Verlander to the mound at Comerica Park, where the righty amassed a 1.65 ERA over 15 regular-season starts and held the Athletics to one run in seven innings in the Division Series opener. But the model does give Joe Girardi’s team a fair shot to spring the upset, staying—perhaps foolishly—bullish on New York’s big-name offense and comfortable with Hughes’ ability to hold his own against Detroit’s. Verlander is no stranger to the Yankees; he faced them three times during the regular season, watching the Tigers lose the first two of those matchups, and then exacting revenge with a season-high 14 strikeouts over eight innings on Aug. 6. Here’s Verlander’s pitch chart from that dominant outing:
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This question has been asked before, but I've yet to see a response. Why is there such a heavy use of batter pitcher matchups included in these write-ups?
From everything I've read on this site, and others, it appears that you need at least 100 plate appearances to take any of the data seriously.
Has there been new research that I'm not aware of? I do like how you've incorporated the Brooks data recently to supplement those matchup pieces, as it gives us a better insight into how specific pitchers are attacking hitters. However, unless there is research I'm not aware of, it seems that a large portion of these previews are spent analyzing information that has already been determined to be useless.
Sorry about the delayed response to this, and thanks for the feedback.
The reasoning behind including the matchups in these previews is primarily to show how the new Matchup Tool can be used. While the small sample size involved in analyzing batter/pitcher matchups makes the results data dubious, the micro data on how pitchers have approached batters over time may shed light on more useful information. That's why, when possible, I've tried to limit the matchups to scenarios where there is either a large bundle of plate appearances to work with, and/or where pitchers have evolved over time, like Hughes in this case.