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October 6, 2012

Playoff Prospectus

AL Wild Card Game Recap: Orioles 5, Rangers 1

by Derek Carty

As was noted in the Wild Card Roundtable, Joe Saunders’ performance in the Orioles’ 5-1 win over Texas serves as a near-perfect analogy for Baltimore’s season as a whole. Nobody expected either to stick around very long, but while it wasn’t pretty, both got the job done. Saunders, whom I wrote would have a short leash, didn’t need much slack tonight, hurling 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball. Though he found himself in quite a few jams of varying sizes, he never let things get out of hand. He allowed a baserunner in every inning (except the sixth, when he got pulled), but Saunders’ specialty, the well-timed groundball—including three double plays!—helped him minimize the damage. As a result, the Orioles have reached the ALDS for the first time since 1997 and will host the division-rival Yankees at home on Sunday.

Still, I’m surprised manager Buck Showalter left Saunders in as long as he did. It seemed as if he was toying with fate—Jonathan Bernhardt remarked (or perhaps cracked) during the Roundtable that Showalter would leave Saunders in until he gave up another run. It hardly seemed like a winning strategy to push his luck like that, but then again, Showalter’s strategy with his pitchers seemed counterintuitive all around.

As Ben riffed on yesterday and I mentioned this morning, the Orioles were starting a shaky pitcher yet had a very good and very deep bullpen. It would have been completely defensible (and arguably preferable) to pull Saunders after three or four innings and work the matchups the rest of the game. The Orioles did almost the opposite, though, as Saunders worked into the sixth and just two relievers bridged the gap between him and closer Jim Johnson: Darren O’Day and